RADIO
Last week is in the books as the Chargers finished off the Jets on Monday Night Football as I was finishing off this article. We now enter the double-digit weeks when the fantasy decisions we make get more and more crucial with only five weeks left in the fantasy regular season. We have four bye teams again this week with the Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, and Eagles getting a much-needed week off. There are two top defenses in great matchups this week, but not quite as many solid streaming options. And a few of the best DST matchups this week belong to some of the worst defenses, so we need to choose our streamers carefully.
Through a series of unfortunate events, the Giants have become the clear leader in the “start whichever DST is playing them” game. The Raiders’ DST scored 19 fantasy against them and the Cowboys are up next in Week 10. The top-ranked DST from last week (Browns) scored 23 fantasy points, and the Colts got two “pick-sixes” from Kenny Moore en route to the highest DST score of the week. The Saints and Packers got back on the double-digit train against the Bears and Rams, and the Ravens continued their Top 5 DST season by obliterating the Seahawks.
On the disappointing end of the spectrum, the Bills continued their descent into DST irrelevance with their sixth straight single-digit score and sixth straight game with fewer fantasy points than the previous week. The Patriots and Commanders are bad defenses and even great matchups against each other couldn’t remedy that. And the Falcons somehow didn’t reach double-digits against a QB opponent who had joined the team only a few days before the game. But it’s a fresh week so let’s get into it.
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How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but as stated above, the top ones from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Bills' DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Raiders' DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Bills’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Raiders' DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (POA) is negative seven. Team B’s POA is plus four. I assign a weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams that can hold their opponent to less than 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
Dallas Cowboys DST vs. NYG
Yahoo Rostership%: 97%
Vegas Odds: DAL favored by 16.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 39
Implied points against: 11.3
There may not be more of a no-brainer DST play this season than the Cowboys against the Giants at home in Week 10. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a team favored by 15+ points in a game with an over/under below 40 total points. The Giants’ implied total of 11.3 points does not seem real. But that is the current state of the Giants’ offense, an offense that was already sputtering, and now Daniel Jones is out for the season with a torn ACL. Veteran backup QB Tyrod Taylor is also on Injured Reserve (IR) along with TE Darren Waller. That leaves Tommy Devito as the only QB on the roster.
With Dallas as a borderline every-week start at DST already, this is as chalky as it gets with fantasy defenses. My only concern is the potential weirdness that accompanies divisional matchups here and there. But “potential weirdness” is not part of my DST analysis process so I’m not overthinking this one.
Baltimore Ravens DST vs. CLE
Yahoo Rostership%: 94%
Vegas Odds: BAL favored by 6
Over/Under (Total Points): 38.5
Implied points against: 16.3
The Ravens may have the best defense in the NFL, and the same can be said about their fantasy DST. Here is where Baltimore ranks across a variety of defensive stats:
- Points allowed per game: First (15.5)
- Defensive DVOA: Second
- Sack Rate: Second (9.1%)
- Sacks per game: First (4.4)
- Interception rate: 11th (2.3%)
- Yards per pass attempt: First (5.5)
The Browns rank 22nd in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs and the Ravens are at home, where they have scored double-digit fantasy points in four of five games this season.
Is this the best @Ravens defense since 2000? 👀 pic.twitter.com/aC8PNmTz8c
— NFL (@NFL) November 6, 2023
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
Pittsburgh Steelers DST vs. GB
Yahoo Rostership%: 84%
Vegas Odds: PIT favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 17.3
The Steelers get another positive home matchup in Week 10 against the 25th-ranked (seventh-easiest) Packers. The Steelers have nine sacks and five turnovers over the last three games and have averaged 9.3 PPG at home this season. The Steelers have had a tough DST schedule thus far, with only two games against bottom-tier DST matchups (ranked 22nd or worse). They scored 30 combined fantasy points in those two games (20 against CLE in Week 2 and 10 against the Raiders in Week 3). The Steelers are Top 10 in defensive DVOA, pressure rate, sack rate, sacks per game, and interception rate, and are a must-start DST in Week 10.
New York Jets DST @ LV
Yahoo Rostership%: 76%
Vegas Odds: NYJ favored by 2
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 17.3
The Jets had a tough outing against the Chargers in Week 9, giving up 27 points and forcing zero turnovers. They did end up with five fantasy points on five sacks, but it was a disappointing outcome. But they faced the toughest DST matchup (Chargers) on the road so I’m giving them a pass as they head into a Week 10 matchup with the Raiders, an opponent that is more fantasy-friendly by leaps and bounds compared to the Chargers.
The Raiders currently rank 29th (fourth-easiest) in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs, and it will be another start for Raiders’ fourth-round rookie Aidan O'Connell. If the Jets can keep Josh Jacobs contained, the Raiders will have a tough time scoring on this team through the air.
New Orleans Saints DST @ MIN
Yahoo Rostership%: 93%
Vegas Odds: NO favored by 2.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 41
Implied points against: 19.3
The Vikings tapped into some magic in Week 9 with newly-acquired QB Joshua Dobbs leading them to 31 points in a comeback win against the Falcons. Something that has become apparent over the last few games is that the Falcons' defense is not very good, supported by their rank of 24th in defensive DVOA. The Saints (ranked ninth in defensive DVOA) are a much better defense than the Falcons, and the Vikings sustained even more injuries, with K.J. Osborn and Cam Akers now on IR.
The Saints have the NFL’s second-highest interception rate and lead the league in total interceptions, and they’ve given up the ninth-fewest points per game. I’ve been working on a ranking system for DSTs that includes DST POA, similar to POA allowed when ranking DST matchups. In other words, how do the fantasy points scored by DSTs compare to what their opponents have been giving up? The Saints DST ranks eighth in raw fantasy points per game, seventh in POA on the season, and sixth in POA over the last five games. They are a solid floor DST in a great matchup.
Demario Davis & Pete Werner call GAME with the 5th turnover for the #Saints defense🤯⚜️ pic.twitter.com/YAOqEHw6hN
— Trizzy Trace (@tracegirouard48) November 5, 2023
Las Vegas Raiders DST vs. NYJ
Yahoo Rostership%: 49%
Vegas Odds: NYJ favored by 2
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 19.3
The Raiders are the Jets’ counterpart in what I’m calling Week 10’s “DST Bowl.” The Jets get the edge in the Week 10 positional rank because they are a better defense, but the Raiders are the top streamer for the week at just under 50% rostered. The Raiders have been a solid DST as of late, ranking 12th in raw PPG, seventh in POA over the last five games, and fifth in POA over the last three games. The Raiders have nine sacks, five turnovers, and a defensive TD in the last two, leading to 32 fantasy points in that span. The Jets rank 29th in offensive DVOA and have been a Top 10 fantasy-friendly matchup based on adjusted fantasy points allowed.
Raiders' defense making their presence felt.#RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/TL4BjzO2j1
— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) November 7, 2023
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
Seattle Seahawks DST vs. WAS
Yahoo Rostership%: 41%
Vegas Odds: SEA favored by 6
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 19.8
Recency bias will likely cast doubt on having the Seahawks at the top of Tier 3 in Week 10. And it’s understandable, as the Seahawks were destroyed by the Ravens in Week 9. Seattle allowed 37 points and recorded only one sack, leaving the DST with two fantasy points on the day. But the Ravens have been a brutal DST matchup, ranking as the fifth-toughest matchup in adjusted fantasy points allowed.
The Seahawks are back at home in Week 10 in a significantly better matchup against the 30th-ranked Commanders. The Seahawks are seventh in sack rate and tied for second in sacks per game, and Sam Howell has been sacked a league-high 4.9 times per game, along with averaging an interception per game. With the addition of Leonard Williams to bolster the defensive line and the opportunistic nature of the young secondary, the Seahawks offer a high ceiling as a DST in Week 10.
Cincinnati Bengals DST vs. HOU
Yahoo Rostership%: 28%
Vegas Odds: CIN favored by 7
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 19.8
The Bengals’ rostership has not yet caught up with how good of a defense they are currently rolling out on game days. The DST has scored more fantasy points than their opponents’ average allowed (a.k.a. POA) in six of eight games and each of the last four. The following are the Bengals’ ranks in my “work in progress” adjusted fantasy points scored categories:
- Raw PPG: Fourth
- POA (season-long): Fifth
- POA (last five games): Third
- POA (last three games): Third
Ranked 11th in defensive DVOA and first in interception rate, the only reason the Bengals aren’t ranked higher in Week 10 is due to matchup. The Texans are the fourth-toughest matchup for DSTs. The Texans have a POA allowed of -5.4 PPG on the season. It’s an interesting matchup between a DST with a solid POA versus an opponent with a solid POA allowed.
BENGALS. DEFENSE. 😤😤 #WHODEY pic.twitter.com/GEhv89MfKk
— Cincinnati 💔 (@CincyProblems) November 6, 2023
San Francisco 49ers DST @ JAX
Yahoo Rostership%: 90%
Vegas Odds: SF favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 44.5
Implied points against: 20.8
The 49ers are one of those defenses a lot of people assume have been better than they have. They have the name value and the reputation, but in reality, their DST has been mediocre. They’ve scored double-digit fantasy points only twice, and have also had a positive POA only twice (same games). The 49ers rank 15th in defensive DVOA and 27th in sack rate.
Presenting these stats is not to say the 49ers are a bad play, just that they’re not the elite DST that a rostership remaining at 90% through their bye week should indicate. They’re still a solid play in Week 10. Chase Young should help with pressure and sacks, and the 49ers do rank fourth in interception rate and have allowed the second-fewest PPG (game points) in the NFL. The Jaguars on the road are not an ideal matchup which is another reason the 49ers are in Tier 3.
Cleveland Browns @ BAL
Yahoo Rostership%: 93%
Vegas Odds: BAL favored by 6
Over/Under (Total Points): 38.5
Implied points against: 22.3
The Browns were my top-ranked DST in Week 9 and they did not disappoint with seven sacks and pitching a shutout against the Clayton Tune-led Cardinals. The Browns rank number one in defensive DVOA and the DST has a positive POA in three of their last four games. The one knock on this DST is their track record in negative matchups this season. In their matchups against good offenses (CIN, BAL, SF, and SEA), they averaged a POA of -2.3 PPG, including -5.7 points the last time they played the Ravens. The Browns are another elite defense being pushed down in Week 10 due to the matchup.
Indianapolis Colts DST vs. NE
Yahoo Rostership%: 14%
Vegas Odds: IND favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 43.5
Implied points against: 21
This call is a little spicy as the Colts don’t have a great defense. However, they have a better defense than they’re given credit for, ranking 12th in defensive DVOA. The Colts started the season strong with a positive POA in their first three games but then put up a negative POA in their next five games. But they found their stride in Week 9 against the Panthers with four sacks, three interceptions, and two defensive TDs (both by Kenny Moore). This is a momentum call as the Colts return home to face the 25th-ranked Patriots.
BENGALS. DEFENSE. 😤😤 #WHODEY pic.twitter.com/GEhv89MfKk
— Cincinnati 💔 (@CincyProblems) November 6, 2023
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST vs. TEN
Yahoo Rostership%: 28%
Vegas Odds: TB favored by 1.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 38.5
Implied points against: 18.5
The Buccaneers are a good but not great defense facing the 17th-ranked Titans at home in Week 10. The appealing aspect of this matchup is the low implied total of 18.5 points for the Titans and facing rookie QB Will Levis. Levis shined in his Week 8 debut against the Falcons (see my Falcons thoughts in the Saints write-up above) but came back down to earth on the road in Pittsburgh in Week 9. I think he stays on earth in this matchup.
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, multiple DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 10
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 10 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 10.
Rest-of-Season Look-Ahead
The following chart shows each fantasy defense’s remaining schedule with each opponent color-coded based on rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Red and orange indicate tougher matchups while green represents easier matchups. Each opponent’s corresponding number rank can be found on the right side of the chart. Also included are the strength of schedule scores for the rest of the fantasy regular season (Weeks 10-14) and the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17).
One of my favorite rest-of-season DSTs that might be available is Miami (currently 47% rostered). The Dolphins are on bye in Week 10 and coming off a lackluster defensive performance against the Chiefs, so that rostership will decrease. Miami is a DST I would consider stashing during their bye to ensure you have them available starting in Week 11. From Week 11 to Week 15, the Dolphins face the Raiders (29th), the Jets (23rd), the Commanders (30th), the Titans (17th), and the Jets again. Their ROS SOS score of 24.8 is the best in the NFL. They do face the Cowboys and Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17, so you’d want to pivot if you are fortunate to make it that far.
The other DST I am either holding if I already have them rostered or am looking to acquire in the next few weeks is the Chiefs. Like the Dolphins, the Chiefs are on bye in Week 10, so their current Yahoo rostership of 66% should decrease during Week 10 waivers. The Chiefs do not have the consecutive streak of positive matchups like the Dolphins, but they get the Raiders in Week 12 (29th), the Packers in Week 13 (24th), the Patriots in Week 15 (25th), and the Raiders again in Week 16. They have negative matchups versus the Eagles (8th) in Week 11 and the Bills (2nd) in Week 14, but I will present some options below for streaming during those weeks.
The other strategy this visual depiction assists with is developing what I like to call a Streaming Action Plan. This is also something I’ll be updating or adding to each week where I present potential action plans for DST streamers over multiple future weeks. Of course, a lot can change (and quickly) in the NFL, but I am constantly utilizing this look-ahead “puzzle piece” strategy so I want to share it with you. Unless otherwise noted, this will feature DST options that are below a 50% rostership during the current week.
I like to look four to five weeks ahead when strategizing these action plans. Looking at Weeks 10 to 13, here are potential pieces and weekly options for a DST Streaming Action Plan:
- Week 10: Seahawks (vs. WAS), Raiders (vs. NYJ), Colts (vs. NE), and Buccaneers (vs. TEN).
- Week 11: Lions (vs. CHI), Commanders (vs. NYG), Chargers (@GB), Texans (vs. ARI).
- Week 12: Lions (vs. GB), Vikings (vs. CHI), Patriots (@NYG).
- Week 13: Falcons (@NYJ), Chargers (@NE), Texans (vs. DEN), Buccaneers (vs. CAR).
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 10
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 10, here is the full list of ranks for all 28 teams playing this week. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 10 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
If you prefer a simple grid, you can check out this chart as well:
| D/ST | Tier | Rank | Ros. | Opp. | Opp. Rank | Over / Under | Spread | Imp. Pts Against |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1 | 1 | 97% | NYG | 32 | 39 | -16.5 | 11.3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1 | 2 | 94% | CLE | 22 | 38.5 | -6 | 16.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2 | 3 | 84% | GB | 25 | 37.5 | -3 | 17.3 |
| New York Jets | 2 | 4 | 76% | @LV | 28 | 36.5 | -2 | 17.3 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2 | 5 | 93% | @MIN | 19 | 41 | -2.5 | 19.3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 6 | 49% | NYJ | 26 | 36.5 | 2 | 19.3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 7 | 41% | WAS | 30 | 45.5 | -6 | 19.8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 8 | 28% | HOU | 2 | 46.5 | -7 | 19.8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 9 | 90% | @JAX | 13 | 44.5 | -3 | 20.8 |
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 10 | 93% | @BAL | 6 | 38.5 | 6 | 22.3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 11 | 14% | NE | 27 | 43.5 | -1.5 | 21 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 3 | 12 | 28% | TEN | 21 | 38.5 | -1.5 | 18.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 13 | 94% | DEN | 24 | 47 | -7.5 | 19.8 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4 | 14 | 23% | @PIT | 18 | 37.5 | 3 | 20.3 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 15 | 24% | NO | 9 | 41 | 2.5 | 21.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4 | 16 | 20% | SF | 4 | 44.5 | 3 | 23.8 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4 | 17 | 53% | @ARI | 17 | 43.5 | 1.5 | 22.5 |
| LA Chargers | 4 | 18 | 41% | DET | 5 | 48.5 | 1.5 | 25 |
| Detroit Lions | 4 | 19 | 31% | @LAC | 1 | 48.5 | -1.5 | 23.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 4 | 20 | 2% | CAR | 20 | 40.5 | -3.5 | 18.5 |
| New England Pats | 4 | 21 | 55% | IND | 23 | 43.5 | 1.5 | 22.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 22 | 5% | @CHI | 32 | 40.5 | 3.5 | 22 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5 | 23 | 5% | @TB | 16 | 38.5 | 1.5 | 20 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 24 | 1% | ATL | 31 | 43.5 | -1.5 | 21 |
| Houston Texans | 5 | 25 | 14% | @CIN | 7 | 46.5 | 7 | 26.8 |
| Commanders | 5 | 26 | 24% | @SEA | 8 | 45.5 | 6 | 25.8 |
| Denver Broncos | 5 | 27 | 19% | @BUF | 3 | 47.5 | 7.5 | 27.5 |
| New York Giants | 5 | 28 | 20% | @DAL | 12 | 39 | 16.5 | 27.8 |
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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