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Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Buffalo Bills enter Thursday Night Football coming off disappointing losses last week. Neither team was able to make the explosive offensive plays in their respective matchups and will look to right the ship as they meet in Buffalo tonight. Both teams also enter Week 8 just one game out of first place in their divisions and looking to develop some offensive consistency.
There are plenty of no-doubt-about-it fantasy starters on both teams, but both also have question marks in various spots. There is a large spread in favor of Buffalo in this game, but we have seen the Bills struggle before in spots where they are heavily favored.
I will be bringing you Thursday Night Football analysis all year long, focusing on who to definitely start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this seventh Thursday Night matchup of the 2023 season.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills - 8:15 pm ET
Notable Injuries:
- Baker Mayfield (QB, TBB) - Knee - Questionable - EXPECTED TO PLAY
- Chris Godwin (WR, TBB) - Neck - Questionable - EXPECTED TO PLAY
- Dawson Knox (TE, BUF) - Wrist - Out
The Buccaneers-Bills Matchup
Although neither team got the result they wanted in Week 7, the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are both squarely in the playoff hunt in their respective conferences and come into Week 8 looking for more of a spark on offense. Tampa Bay only scored 13 points in Week 7 and Buffalo was sitting on 10 points part way through the fourth quarter when a soft New England defense gave up 15 more at the end of the game.
The Bills return home where they are fourth in the NFL in yards per play at home as well as eighth in time of possession percentage. They tend to dominate control of the ball at home, leading long drives that often end with points on the board. The challenge for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers tonight is to try and control the clock and somehow get a run game going. Tampa Bay's rush yards per attempt is 31st in the NFL this season (3.1 yards) and last in the league when they are on the road (2.8 yards). If they want any chance to be competitive, that has to change tonight.
Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen is an easy top-five quarterback selection this week in fantasy football. Even with all 32 teams playing this week, there are very few options I would consider playing over him as he usually shines at home. Tampa Bay is a bottom-10 team in yards per pass attempt allowed this season and they already allowed three rushing scores to quarterbacks this season. This looks like a game where Allen gets at least one through the air and one via the ground.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Similar to Allen, Stefon Diggs is a no-questions-asked starter this week. The Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game to opponents this season (246.7) and Diggs is now second in the NFL among wide receivers in target share (33.3%) and he is sixth in air yards share (44.8%).
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (WRs, TBB)
The Bills are still a borderline top-ten team against wide receivers this season as they have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position. But the Tampa Bay passing offense is such a passing funnel between two guys, that their volume can make up for a tough matchup.
Both Evans and Chris Godwin have identical 24.9% target shares this year. No other wide receiver on the team sees more than nine percent. Evans and Godwin are also the only receivers on the team who see more than 14% of the team's air yards this year.
Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups
Dalton Kincaid (WR, BUF)
Dalton Kincaid is a borderline must-start for this Buffalo offense that will not have tight end Dawson Knox on the roster for the foreseeable future. Kincaid was already seeing the field on more than 60% of snaps and now he should jump up to the 75%-80% range that Knox was playing every day. After Knox went down with injury in Week 7, Kincaid had his best game of his young career with eight receptions for 75 yards.
Rachaad White (WR, TBB)
Rachaad White might just be the most inefficient running back in the NFL, but his volume is overcoming a lot of those weaknesses. He ranks 57th in true yards per carry (3.2 yards), but he also is sixth in snap share, 11th in opportunity share, and seventh in route participation at the position. The Buccaneers also like to feature him in the red zone despite his lack of success there. White ranks 13th among all running backs with 18 red zone touches this season.
Gabe Davis (WR, BUF)
In his last four games, Gabe Davis has two finishes inside the top 20 wide receivers and two finishes outside the top 80. That kind of boom or bust scenario is something Gabe Davis managers have become accustomed to, but his ability to explode in games always makes him a flex play in my mind. With Tampa Bay allowing more than 10 yards per completion on the season, there is a good chance Davis can break one or two big plays in this game.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
Even though he only played on 52% of his snaps on Sunday, the James Cook breakout game fantasy managers needed happened in Week 7. He totaled 102 total yards and a score and actually out-touched Latavius Murray in the red zone against New England. Cook is now 16th among running backs in total carries this year and 18th in targets, so he is squarely in the RB2 conversation each week considering how many points this offense can put on the board.
Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups
Baker Mayfield (QB, TBB)
Mayfield has one top-ten week as a fantasy quarterback this season, and that was in a game where he threw three touchdowns for the first time since 2020. I'm not counting on a repeat of that performance against a Bills' defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position this season.
Cade Otton (TE, TBB)
The Bills have shut down opposing tight ends this season, allowing just 4.9 fantasy points per game to the position and giving up just one touchdown to them this year. There is always a chance that Otton lucks his way into a score this week, but he falls well outside the top 20 in our rankings this week.
Latavius Murray (RB, BUF)
If you're looking for a positive spin on Murray, you can point to the fact that he is top ten at the position in both targets and rush attempts inside the 10-yard line this season. But he has turned all those opportunities into just two touchdowns while James Cook also has two and Josh Allen has three in that area. If this were a Jamaal Williams 2022 situation it would be different, but he is too inconsistent to be in lineups.
Trey Palmer (WR, TBB)
Speedster Trey Palmer has one game with more than three targets this season and hasn't passed 47 receiving yards in any game. As the likely fifth option in the passing game, Palmer is a non-starter tonight.
Kirksey’s Picks
Current Spread: BUF -8.5, Total: 42
This game ultimately comes down to two things. First, what version of Josh Allen do we get? Do we get the good version of YOLO Allen who is zipping balls downfield and mixing in the run game as well as his own rushing component to this offense? I have full confidence that the high-powered Buffalo offense can win this game, but it just comes down to how their defense will perform after losing big pieces like Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano, and DaQuon Jones.
Over the last three weeks, Buffalo has been the worst team in the league, allowing 4.7 red zone scoring attempts per game. Recognizing that trend and coming off a tough loss in a short week leads me to think this Tampa Bay offense can put up some points to cover the spread and make this a 24-20 game or something similar.
Picks: TBB +8.5, OVER 42
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