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Mitch's analysis of ESPN fantasy football ADPs - players that overvalued and undervalued. His ESPN fantasy football sleepers and busts based on 2023 ADPs.
Many fantasy football seasons are won and lost on draft day. Fantasy football isn't just about knowing the best players; rather, it is about identifying value at each draft position.
If you can draft the guy in the fifth round who will put up points equivalent to a third-round pick, you are well on your way to assembling a winning lineup. On the other hand, Jonathan Taylor finished as RB20 in half-PPR leagues last season, which would be worthy of a second-round pick, but he was taken in the early first round, so ultimately, he didn't live up to value. And, as I will argue here, he won't be a value pick this season, either.
For this column, I am looking at the average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo public leagues, which use half-PPR as their standard scoring system. I'll be identifying players who I think are being overvalued and undervalued at each position.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Undervalued Fantasy Football QB
Jared Goff, ADP: QB23
Jared Goff is the 23rd quarterback off the board in Yahoo PPR leagues. That's extremely low for a quarterback who finished as the QB10 in his second year in Detroit. The Lions still have Amon-Ra St. Brown at wide receiver and speed threat Jameson Williams coming into his second year after he serves a six-game suspension to start the season.
Sam LaPorta might be a rookie, but he provides another weapon at tight end. Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the best pass-catching prospects out of the backfield in years. The Lions' offensive line is a consensus top-five unit.
Goff wasn't nearly as productive in 2021 as he was in 2022. He did throw a lot of "turnover-worthy" passes in 2022 that were not intercepted, according to PFF. But even if he declines a little bit, he should certainly finish above QB23.
Overvalued Fantasy Football QB
Lamar Jackson, ADP: QB4
Lamar Jackson is being picked ahead of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Fields. But Lamar Jackson has never finished ahead of Justin Herbert in total scoring.
He did miss significant time with injuries at the end of each of the past two seasons - another problem. But he's been outscored by either Herbert or Burrow in each of the past two seasons in terms of per-game average, too.
Maybe Jackson will not get injured again during the fantasy playoffs this season, but it's getting harder to trust him. Maybe the new offensive scheme coordinator Todd Monken has designed will make the most out of Jackson's passing ability. But it's also possible that Jackson flops, as his pocket passing ability has always been underwhelming. That's why previous coordinator Greg Roman designed a unique offense in the first place.
Undervalued Fantasy Football RB
Raheem Mostert, ADP: RB48
Raheem Mostert set career highs in attempts, rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards last season en route to a RB27 finish in half-PPR. Mike McDaniels' offense emphasizes speed. It's a good fit for Mostert, who ran a 4.34-forty-yard dash at the 2015 NFL Scouting Combine.
Now, you might be thinking that the Dolphins just drafted the younger and even faster Devon Achane in round three of this year's draft, so won't Mostert lose playing time? But Achane is only 188 pounds. He is not big enough to be a lead-back. The Dolphins still have Jeff Wilson Jr., who carried the rock 84 times last season, but Chase Edmonds left for Tampa Bay.
Mostert should still be expected to be given 100 or more carries, even in a committee. He has averaged 5.4 yards per attempt in his career and has never run for less than 4.9 in a season. The RB48 last season, Kareem Hunt, only gained 468 yards on the ground. If Mostert has 150 carries, he's primed for over 700 yards.
Overvalued Fantasy Football RB
Jonathan Taylor, ADP: RB4
Jonathan Taylor is one year removed from his RB1 season. Last year, he disappointed because of injuries and inefficiency while playing for a terrible Colts team. He led the league in total touchdowns in 2021, but only scored four touchdowns last season. That should change this year. The Colts should not finish the year dead last in total touchdowns again.
But JT is still playing for a team with a bad quarterback. Rookie Anthony Richardson had one of the worst completion percentages of any NFL prospect in years. Richardson only went in the first round because of his unprecedented athleticism and the hypothetical rushing threat he presents. But Richardson's rushing threat may deprive JT of carries.
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Nick Chubb are more reliable options who should be going ahead of Taylor, in addition to Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Bijan Robinson, who already are going ahead of him. You can throw Tony Pollard in, too, as a talented running back on a high-powered offense who is set to see an increase in his workload.
Undervalued Fantasy Football WR
Rashid Shaheed, ADP: WR70
Undrafted four-time FCS All-American Rashid Shaheed didn't start immediately, but in the six games he did start, he was the WR37 in Weeks 13-18, including weekly finishes as the WR16 and WR21. He is extremely fast, versatile, and athletic. Shaheed even scored seven kickoff return touchdowns at Weber State. He has scored touchdowns as both a rusher and a receiver in the NFL. He beat James Bradberry one-on-one in Week 17 for 59 yards.
Timo Riske of ProFootballFocus stated, "Shaheed dominated his matchup against James Bradberry. He was graded positively on six of his 11 routes against him, putting up 58 yards in the process."
Overvalued Fantasy Football WR
Skyy Moore, ADP: WR55
Many who were excited about Skyy Moore's rookie prospects are hoping Moore will make the second-year breakout after he finished as the WR122 last season. He did begin to show signs of improvement last season, albeit very gradually. He was the WR102 in the final eight games.
But if you can get rookie Quentin Johnston, who has a more solid role on the Chargers' exciting offense, at almost the same point (WR54), I would go with Johnston. Zay Jones, last season's WR24, has fallen to WR60. Rondale Moore, Tyler Boyd, Romeo Doubs, Nico Collins, and Darnell Mooney are also intriguing options behind Moore. That could also be the right time to gamble on a running back in an ambiguous situation like Rashaad or Brian Robinson.
Undervalued Fantasy Football TE
Tyler Higbee, ADP: TE27
Tyler Higbee finished as the TE9 last season because the Rams' offense was a mess, and they had no one else behind Cooper Kupp. Quick question: Who do they have behind Cooper Kupp now? Answer: Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, and Demarcus Robinson. Fifth-round pick Puka Nacua is earning legitimate hype in training camp, but part of that is optimism coming from the lack of anyone else.
Higbee actually made more catches and gained more yards in games that Kupp played last season than in games Kupp missed. However, he scored more touchdowns without Kupp. So Higbee has upside one way or another, with or without Kupp.
Overvalued Fantasy Football TE
Mark Andrews, ADP: TE2
Mark Andrews is going at the crazy spot of number 27 overall. He is no Travis Kelce, but he's being treated like he is in a tier ahead of T.J. Hockenson and George Kittle when Hockenson and Kittle both outscored him in points per game.
Hock also outscored him in total points. Andrews finished as TE1 in 2021, but then in 2020, he finished behind T.J. in total points and behind Kittle in points per game again.
The tight end position is subject to so much fluctuation that you can hardly guess what direction a TE will move relative to others. It is not worth spending a late second round pick on a tight end when you could pick a high-quality WR or RB there.
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