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We have a 10-game MLB schedule going down this Monday evening, meaning it's officially time to get our week started on the right note!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, July 31, 2023. Without any further adieu, let's take a look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
J.P. France over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110, DraftKings sportsbook)
We're getting into a big enough sample size with J.P. France that his regression should kick in at any time now.
France has been excellent in his rookie season if you're looking at his 2.87 ERA in 14 starts but a deeper dive reveals some inferior peripherals. For example, France also sports a 4.33 FIP, 4.61 xFIP, and a 4.84 SIERA. He has also struck out just 16.7% of the batters he has faced which had led him to an underwhelming 9.8% K-BB%.
Are the Guardians a team most likely to deliver said regression? Probably not. However, it's coming and there's very little doubt about that. Their offense sits 25th overall with a .305 wOBA but they are a pesky bunch. Cleveland's 18.3% K% is the best mark in the majors while their .253 average moves up into a share of 14th. They made not possess a ton of thunder but there aren't many easy outs in this group.
Add it up and the Guardians should be able to get to France for at least three earned runs tonight.
Corbin Burnes to record a win (-115, DraftKings sportsbook)
Corbin Burnes has been doing his part in giving his club a chance to win each and every time he takes on the mound of late, something that wasn't exactly the case earlier in the season, at least not consistently.
Burnes enters this one riding a streak of five straight starts of allowing two earned runs or fewer while going at least six innings in all five outings. Burnes rattled off four straight wins before taking the loss his last time out against the Reds despite tossing six innings of two-run ball while allowing just three hits.
This Nationals offense hasn't been quite as poor as many thought they would be as they sit 18th overall with a .314 wOBA on the season. They also strike out just 18.8% of the time, good for the second-best mark in baseball. However, they slip to 25th with a .303 wOBA versus right-handed pitching and Burnes is on a heater entering this one.
Run support has been an issue for the Brewers this season and was clearly a lingering issue in his last start. However, my money is on the right-hander continuing his stretch of excellent pitching against a subpar offense that has struggled against right-handers this season.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Manny Machado over 2.5 total bases (+120, DraftKings sportsbook)
Rarely do we see an over 2.5 total bases play but the stars are aligning for the Padres' Manny Machado to have a big night tonight in Colorado.
Not only does Machado get the benefit of hitting in the league's hitter-friendliest venue, but he also takes on a struggling lefty in the Rockies' Austin Gomber. The southpaw has turned in a 5.83 ERA in 21 starts while he also owns a 5.48 FIP and a 4.98 SIERA. The good news for this prop is that Gomber isn't struggling with free passes given his solid 6.4% walk rate but has rather been stung by the long ball by way of a 1.83 HR/9.
Gomber also owns some curious numbers at Coors Field, such as a .315 batting average and .924 OPS against while his home run rate elevates to a 2.05 HR/9 clip. For good measure, he owns a 5.77 FIP at Coors Field this season.
For his part, Machado hasn't had himself a banner year. However, he has absolutely mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .337 average, .211 isolated power, and a .953 OPS across 106 trips to the plate. His ISO jumps to .267 on the road against lefties alongside a .945 OPS in such scenarios.
We're getting nice value for Machado to have a productive outing in a favorable spot Monday night.
Joc Pederson over 1.5 total bases (+100, DraftKings sportsbook)
Originally, I was in search of some LaMonte Wade Jr. props but Pederson will do as he takes on D-backs righty Ryne Nelson tonight in San Francisco.
Nelson simply has not been very good, posting a 4.97 ERA in 21 starts while he also owns a 5.15 SIERA while striking out just 15.4% of the hitters he has faced on the season. Keep in mind this is also a pitcher that posted a 5.43 ERA/5.49 FIP across 26 starts at Triple-A last season.
Now, Nelson's struggles have predominantly come at home where he has an 8.01 ERA versus a quality 2.67 mark on the road. However, he also owns a 4.42 xFIP away from home. There's no doubt he's been better away from Chase Field in Arizona but regression on the road is coming.
Enter Pederson who is enjoying a fine season. The veteran has mostly faced right-handed pitching, hitting .267 with a .244 ISO and .888 OPS off righties this season. Additionally, his best work has come at home where he sports a .265 ISO and .939 OPS versus right-handed pitching this season.
He should hit in the upper third of the Giants' lineup tonight and while pinch-hit risk is there later on in the contest, expect Pederson to get this prop taken care of in short order.
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