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Good morning, RotoBallers! We've made it to the last Saturday in July. It's crazy how quickly this summer has flown by. Next thing you know we'll be lighting apple-scented candles and drinking pumpkin-spiced beers on a Saturday afternoon while the chili cooks... OK too soon. Let's enjoy this relatively quiet sports weekend while we can, and wager on some MLB player props. Now that's something we can all agree on.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, July 29, 2023. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games. Find me on Twitter @BellRoto for all things fantasy MLB and MLB betting banter!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Aaron Nola OVER 18.5 Outs Recorded (+125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's about that time of year: The time of year when I can make money picking on my lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The loss of Carlos Santana in this lineup hurts in many ways, but in this case it takes away a veteran hitter who typically extends the at-bat to work a walk, move a runner, or find a gap. Without him, the Bucs deploy a string of young hitters that veteran Aaron Nola should be able to exploit.
Nola has walked just one batter in has last four outings combined. That's allowed him to reach 7.0 innings in three of four of those starts. Despite the hitter-friendly weather expected in Pittsburgh tonight, I'll bank on one of the best pitchers in the league, who seems to be finding his groove, to record at least one out in the 7th inning.
Hey, if I can't make money betting against the Pirates as we near August, then what's the point of even watching baseball anymore. Am I right?
Bailey Ober OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm honestly surprised DraftKings even offered this 17.5 number with how great Ober has been of late combined with how putrid Kansas City continues to be on offense. Now, it's juiced way up to -150, so maybe this is just the "trappiest" of lines, but I'll take the bait considering that the 28-year-old right-handed starting pitcher has gone at least 6.0 innings in each of his last seven starts.
Ober heads to a hitter-friendly park in Kansas City, and he gets to face the team ranked 28th in the league in wOBA against RHPs. Need more? The Royals walk just 6.5% of the time against righties. That's dead last in the MLB. A huge game from Bobby Witt Jr. is the only way I see Ober getting knocked out before he finishes the sixth frame. While this line requires you to reach a little deeper in your pockets, the matchup and recent form align too perfectly to pass up for me.
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MLB Hitting Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Mike Tauchman OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-155 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another one of my favorite games of 2023 has been called "Let's pick on Adam Wainwright". The 41-year-old was decent in his return from injury last time out against the Diamondbacks, but two walks and three strikeouts in five innings leading to a 4.90 xFIP shows me there's still plenty to pick on here.
Mike Tauchman got the day off on Friday, but he casually came in late in the game to record a hit and rob a home run to close out a Cubs win. Just another day at the office for the late-blooming 32-year-old center fielder. I suspect he'll be back in the leadoff spot on Saturday, and he's the perfect candidate to take advantage of Wainwright's ridiculous .466 wOBA against left-handed batters. I expect him to be on base three times in this one, so while the line is juicy, this "Over" should hit by the 5th inning. I like this as part of a little batter/pitcher prop parlay as well if you so please!
Christian Yelich OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yelich has really started to heat up in the month of July. The problem has been his fellow Brewers hitters haven't been helping him out in spots two through nine in the order. I'd love to take the Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs here at plus-money as well, but those other hitters make me nervous, so this is a fine consolation prop, but take both if you're so inclined!
Prior to going 0-for-5 on Friday, Yelich was in the midst of an eight-game hitting streak which included four doubles and two homers, including a 2-for-4 outing on July 23rd against this same starting pitcher, Bryce Elder. I expect Yelich to get back in his groove on Saturday. A quick double in the gap hits our Over right out of the gate, but I could see a multi-hit effort coming too.
Adding to the fact that Elder just pitched against these Brewers six days ago is the fact that negative regression (which we've been clamoring for all season) has finally started to strike against the 24-year-old overachiever. His left-on-base percentage has started to normalize, and the walks and homers are starting to really hurt him, leading to a righteous 6.13 xFIP in his last five starts. A 4.01 K/9 rate bodes well for the contact-friendly Yelich. I expect five balls in play for the veteran outfielder/designated hitter in this one. Let's hope two find the grass... or the bleachers.
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