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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With several day games today, we're left with an enticing eight-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today's matchups feature a surprisingly uncertain pool of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 7/19/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:07 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez, DET vs. KC ($9,500 DK, $10,600 FD)
There's no must-have arm on today's slate, but Eduardo Rodriguez is my favorite of the bunch. Through 13 starts, he sports a strong 3.43 xERA and 3.48 xFIP. That includes a .290 xwOBA, 32.7% hard-hit rate, 87.3 mph average exit velocity, and a 6% walk rate. Rodriguez doesn't surrender a lot of power, and he doesn't give out free passes. He also strikes out batters at a 26.8% rate.
Rodriguez will take on the Royals tonight, who, despite scoring 11 runs yesterday, probably have the worst offense in baseball at this point. Kansas City scores just 3.7 runs per game this season and only 3.5 runs since the beginning of June. They carry a weak 89 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, including a .137 ISO and a generous 24.8% strikeout rate. Rodriguez should match up nicely in this one.
Justin Verlander, NYM vs. CHW ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD)
Choosing an SP2 on this slate has no easy answer. Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo are fairly interchangeable, but I'll give Verlander the edge, given his recent trajectory. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has seemingly put his early-season struggles behind him.
Verlander has surrendered three earned runs or less in each of his past four outings and given up zero home runs during that span. He now carries a 3.56 xERA, alongside strong numbers like a .366 xSLG, .231 xBA, and 6.3% barrel rate. Verlander's 20.2% strikeout rate continues to underwhelm, but he has managed at least five strikeouts in all but one of his past six appearances.
Verlander draws a matchup with an underwhelming White Sox lineup. They've had some big days lately but remain an overall subpar offense. Chicago sports an awful 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, the third-worst mark in the league. That includes a .675 OPS, .293 wOBA, and 23.5% strikeout rate. Further, the White Sox are likely still without Eloy Jimenez today, who is nursing a groin injury he picked up over the weekend. They're not as bad as the Royals, but Chicago presents a favorable spot for Verlander.
Also consider: Luis Castillo, Carlos Rodon
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt Olson – 1B, ATL vs. Ryne Nelson ($6,200 DK, $4,300 FD)
I basically like every Atlanta bat today, but I'll isolate Matt Olson as a preferred target. He leads the National League with 30 home runs this season and carries a .256/.360/.568 slash line. Olson's underlying numbers are even more impressive, boasting a .573 xSLG, 56.9% hard-hit rate, 94.7 mph average exit velocity, 19.1% barrel rate, and .393 xwOBA.
Ryne Nelson isn't well-equipped to take on the Braves today. He sports a terrible 4.89 xERA and 5.03 xFIP. That includes a .461 xSLG, 10.6% barrel rate, 91.2 mph average exit velocity, .269 xBA, and 43.5% hard-hit rate. Left-handed hitters are slugging .530 against Nelson this season.
Francisco Lindor – SS, NYM vs. Touki Toussaint ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD)
Francisco Lindor is a great midrange play today. He carries a .480 xSLG, 45.7% hard-hit rate, 91.9 mph average exit velocity, 12% barrel rate, and .353 xwOBA. Lindor has posted a .210 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season and holds a .471 career slugging percentage against righties. Overall, he has 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases and can accrue fantasy points in any number of ways.
Touki Toussaint doesn't present a particularly difficult matchup for Lindor. Toussaint hasn't pitched much in the majors over the last couple of seasons, but he sports a 4.96 xERA through 24 innings this season. Left-handed hitters are slugging .450 against him for his career.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 3B, CIN vs. Ross Stripling ($2,500 DK, $2,800 FD)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand's price is barely above the minimum, and it's unlikely to stay that way for long. His MLB career is just two games deep, but he already launched his first home run on Tuesday. He's a heralded prospect and figures to develop into a prolific offensive threat. Encarnacion-Strand slashed .331/.405/.637 with 20 home runs across 67 games in Triple-A this season.
Ross Stripling looks awful this season. He carries a 5.33 xERA through 13 appearances. That includes a .497 xSLG, 11.6% barrel rate, .271 xBA, 43.2% hard-hit rate, and .354 xwOBA. Right-handed hitters are slugging .538 against Stripling with a .350 wOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Juan Soto – OF, SD vs. Jose Berrios ($5,700 DK, $3,700 FD)
Juan Soto launched his 17th home run of the season last night, and I like his chances again in this spot. He sports a 152 OPS+, alongside a .487 xSLG, 12.7% barrel rate, 57.8% hard-hit rate, 93.1 mph average exit velocity, and .392 xwOBA. The results are phenomenal when Soto puts the ball in play. The only downside, if you see it that way, is his league-leading 20.2% walk rate.
Jose Berrios is having a strong campaign on the surface, featuring a 3.41 ERA. However, the underlying numbers suggest significant regression is due. Berrios sports a 4.57 xERA, .443 xSLG, .331 xwOBA, and .261 xBA. Left-handed hitters are slugging .440 against Berrios this season, down from .514 in 2022.
Cody Bellinger – OF, CHC vs. Trevor Williams ($4,400 DK, $3,900 FD)
Cody Bellinger is on an absolute tear right now. He's hit safely in 18 of his last 20 games, posting five home runs and 11 multi-hit performances in that span. Overall, Bellinger is slashing .308/.365/.523 with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. He may not be on the Cubs for much longer. In the meantime, Bellinger is their top bat.
Trevor Williams is a pitcher worth targeting whenever he takes the mound. He carries a 5.09 xERA and 4.90 xFIP. Williams has surrendered a .476 xSLG, 10.5% barrel rate, .273 xBA, and .347 xwOBA. Left-handed hitters are slugging .480 against Williams this season, following a .514 slugging percentage in 2022.
Matt Wallner – OF, MIN vs. Luis Castillo ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD)
If you need an outfielder at punt-level pricing, Matt Wallner is worth a flier. He doesn't have much major-league experience, but his minor-league track record is encouraging. Wallner slashed .291/.403/.524 with 11 home runs through 67 games in Triple-A this season and hit 27 home runs across 128 minor-league games in 2022.
I wouldn't stack against Luis Castillo, but a low-owned one-off bat is certainly on the table. He's surrendered a .417 xSLG, 43.9% hard-hit rate, 90.1 mph average exit velocity, and 9.6% barrel rate. Left-handed hitters have been particularly successful versus Castillo, slugging .442 with 10 home runs off of him.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Atlanta Braves vs. Ryne Nelson
It feels like low-hanging fruit at this point, but the Braves are absolutely the top stack today. Atlanta scores 5.7 runs per game on the season. They carry a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, including a league-high .810 OPS and .348 wOBA. Their gratuitous prices will make them hard to stack, but they bring the highest ceiling if you can get there.
Ryne Nelson just doesn't have a good chance at success today. He sports an awful 4.89 xERA and 5.03 xFIP. That includes a .461 xSLG, 10.6% barrel rate, 91.2 mph average exit velocity, .269 xBA, and 43.5% hard-hit rate. Nelson likely doesn't make it deep into this game, and Arizona's bullpen carries a weak 4.20 ERA.
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Sean Murphy
Cincinnati Reds vs. Ross Stripling
The Reds have developed into one of baseball's scariest offenses. They're scoring 5.2 runs per game since the beginning of June behind breakout performances from Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. Cincinnati carries a .766 OPS against right-handed pitching during that span, including a .184 ISO and .334 wOBA.
Ross Stripling is debatably having the worst professional season of his career thus far. He sports a 5.33 xERA through 13 appearances. That includes a .497 xSLG, 11.6% barrel rate, .271 xBA, 43.2% hard-hit rate, and .354 xwOBA. Factoring in that Great American Ball Park is an overwhelmingly hitter-friendly environment, and the Reds look very good in this matchup.
Favorite Plays: Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Jake Fraley, Jonathan India, Christian Encarnacion-Strand
Also Consider: Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, New York Mets
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