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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on July 4, 2023. Dawn Tepper's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Fourth of July, RotoBallers! I hope everyone is celebrating (safely!) with friends and family and enjoying some great games today. Out of eight games, five are being played in a dome. Games in New York and Boston have mild weather concerns but keep an eye out nonetheless. That leaves Minnesota with game temperatures in the high 80s and 10mph winds out to left field. Let's dig in!
In this article, I will cover DraftKings' main, eight-game slate starting at 1:05 pm. I'll also provide FanDuel player prices, but please note that not all games will be on the same slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/4/2023 and the slate locking at 1:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. Monitoring injury news and today's MLB starting lineups is also essential. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @dtepdc for more free betting and DFS advice.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jesus Luzardo, MIA vs. STL ($10,300 DK, $10,300 FD)
Luzardo has a 28.4% K rate for the season and a 3.48 xFIP. Versus right-handed batters at home, he has a 27.5% K rate. We know how strong the Cardinals have been this year, but their 116 wRC+ for the season has come down to 104 over the last 30 days. Still above average but back down to earth a bit. Versus lefties on the road, St. Louis is slashing just .236/.298/378 with an 84 wRC+. The Cardinals could have a tough Independence Day versus Luzardo this afternoon.
Kenta Maeda, MIN vs KC ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD)
Maeda is facing a Kansas City team with a 79 wRC+ for the season and 74 for the last 30 days. They are already well below average and getting worse as the season goes on. This season, versus right-handed pitchers on the road, the Royals are slashing a very poor .230/.281/.362. Maeda's 23% K rate is on the low side, but the Royals' strikeout rate is 26.8%, and their ISO for the season is .110 (average is .140, below average, is .120). All signs point to Maeda getting a win at home today versus a very bad Royals team.
Also consider: Kolby Allard, Shane Bieber, and Emmet Sheehan (DK value)
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Arraez - C, MIA vs. Adam Wainwright ($4,800 DK, $3,100 FD)
It is just not Wainwright's year. For the season, he has a 7.45 ERA and a 582 xFIP. Miami has a just below-average 21% K rate, and Wainwright's is 10.7%. Yes, you read that correctly. At home, for the season, Arraez is slashing .425/.461/.503 with one HR and 23 RBI. Versus righties at home, he has a .449 batting average and a whopping 178 wRC+. Miami is another stack I will be eyeing today, and it will include Arraez.
Adam Wainwright - StatCast
Mauricio Dubon - 2B, HOU vs. Kyle Freeland ($3,400 DK, $2,700 FD)
As mentioned below, four Houston hitters have an over .900 OPS versus left-handed pitchers (including Dubon), with three over 1.00. Kyle Freeland has an 8.5% K rate and a 5.39 xFIP on the road versus right-handed batters this season. Dubon has a .291 batting average with 12 homers and 35 RBI in his career versus left-handed pitchers. In the last five games, he is slashing .313/.389/.438 with three stolen bases, five hits, and three RBI. Dubon will be part of my Houston stack this afternoon.
Dansby Swanson - SS, CHC vs. Wade Miley ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD)
The Cubs are one of today's sneaky stacks. Miley has a 3.02 ERA but a 4.94 xFIP and a 15% strikeout rate. Including Swanson, the Cubs have six players with an over .750 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. Swanson adds three home runs and 11 RBI to a .777 OPS versus lefties. This season against left-handed pitchers, Swanson is slashing .237/.310/.500 with a 117 wRC+. He will be a central part of my Cubs stack today.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Verdugo - OF, BOS vs. Dane Dunning ($4,000 DK, $3,300 FD)
Verdugo has the best batting average for the Red Sox against right-handed pitchers at home this season, slashing .377/.431/.670 and a 1.01 OPS. Dunning has a 17.2% K rate and 4.84 xFIP on the road versus left-handed hitters this season. In his last two games versus Boston on the road, Dunning has an average xFIP of 6.81. In his career versus the Red Sox, he has an 0-3 record with a 9.42 ERA and nine strikeouts. Alex Verdugo should help the Red Sox add another win against Dunning today in Boston.
Kyle Tucker - OF, HOU vs. Kyle Freeland ($5,200 DK, $3,700 FD)
Among the Astros, Tucker has had the highest career batting average versus left-handed pitchers at home in their last 10 games, with an average of .450. Four Houston hitters have an over .900 OPS (including Mauricio Dubon), with three over 1.00. Kyle Freeland has an 8.5% K rate and a 5.39 xFIP on the road versus right-handed batters this season. Houston is my top stack this afternoon, and Tucker will be a pivotal part of that stack.
Billy McKinney - OF, NYY vs. Kyle Gibson ($2,300 DK, $2,800 FD)
In 11 games versus Kyle Gibson, the Bombers are slashing .273/.365/.412 with a .777 OPS. Versus right-handed pitchers this season, they are .232/.297/.407 with 95 HRs and 285 RBI. In 59 plate appearances against righties this year, McKinney has a batting average of .228 with four home runs and six RBI. All those numbers add up to a Yankee lefty who can do some real damage today versus Gibson and the Orioles (it hurts my heart to write that, but it's true).
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Houston Astros vs. Kyle Freeland
Versus left-handed pitchers, the Astros have an over .900 OPS, with three over 1.00. Kyle Freeland has an 8.5% K rate and a 5.39 xFIP on the road versus right-handed batters this season. I've already targeted two Astros players in this article, and with an almost six-run total for today's game, the Astros are in a great position to score some runs this afternoon.
Houston has five right-handed batters with an over .800 OPS and a total of 15 home runs for the season. Since 2019, Dubon has the highest batting average by an active Astros right-hander against Freeland, with a .400 batting average. Houston is my favorite stack this Independence Day, and I expect Freeland to get rocked by Dubon and Tucker, among others.
Favorite Plays: Kyle Tucker, Mauricio Dubon, Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick
2. Chicago Cubs vs. Miles Wiley
3. Miami Marlins vs. Adam Wainwright
4. Boston Red Sox vs. Dan Dunning
5. Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Hendricks
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