Fantasy Football Draft Targets And Avoids - AFC West Breakdowns For Javonte Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Keenan Allen, more

July 13, 2023

Rob looks at each team in the NFL's AFC West Division and identifies players that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2023.

Finally, we have reached the last two divisions -- the AFC and NFC West -- after covering the AFC and NFC South divisions. Fortunately, these divisions boast some of the most talented fantasy football players in the NFL, providing us with a wide range of relevant options.

Specifically, the AFC West presents the opportunity for fantasy managers to acquire two quarterbacks ranked in the top five, two running backs in the top 10, and two wide receivers in the top 12. Let's not forget about the number one tight end, either. If you have missed the first few entries into this series, you can find them below:

• AFC North
• NFC North
• AFC East
• NFC East
• AFC South
• NFC South

As emphasized throughout this series, our focus is not solely on identifying good or bad fantasy football players, but rather on assessing their value. This means that a good player could have a high price, while a less impressive player might have a favorable price. The cost of acquisition is what matters to us, as we should never fully commit or disregard a player. Our interest is always dependent on the cost. With the fantasy football draft season approaching rapidly, remember to use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout to enjoy a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

Denver Broncos

Players to Target- RB Javonte Williams

The injury concerns raised are valid. However, the comparison and confidence of Yahoo! fantasy managers suggesting that Javonte Williams will have a similar year to J.K. Dobbins last year is unfounded. Let's consider where Williams would have been drafted if he hadn't been injured.

Denver recently made solid improvements to their offensive line by signing Mike McGlinchey, the right tackle from San Francisco, and Ben Powers, a guard from Baltimore. Additionally, they hired head coach Sean Payton, widely regarded as one of the best offensive minds of the past 15 years. Payton has been a valuable asset for fantasy running backs, consistently providing favorable opportunities.

During his 15-year tenure as a head coach, Payton's running back group scored 100 or more half-PPR points above the league average in seven seasons. In 12 out of 15 seasons, his running backs outscored the league average by at least 50 half-PPR points. Only one season, 2021, fell below the average. You might argue, "But what about the performance of the number one running back?" To address that, let’s take a look at the following information:

Over 15 years, Payton has had 12 running backs finish in the top 15 in half-PPR PPG (points per game) average. Five times, one of his running backs finished in the top five. Furthermore, new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi worked under Payton from 2007-2013 and again from 2016-2020. He served as the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions in 2014 and 2015, and then for the Los Angeles Chargers in 2021 and 2022.

Joique Bell finished as the RB16 with a 12.2 half-PPR PPG average in 2013. We cannot overlook Austin Ekeler's performances in the past two seasons either. Ekeler finished as the RB1 (18.8) and RB3 (19.3) in 2022 and 2021, respectively. Considering all of this, let's revisit the original question: Where would you draft Williams?

As a rookie, Williams ranked 17th in targets among running backs and held a 10.2% target share. Not only did he receive opportunities, but he also made the most of them, finishing 17th in yards per route run. Additionally, he ranked 14th in rushing yards over expected per carry, seventh in yards after contact per attempt, and first in broken tackle rate.

Despite sharing the backfield 50/50 with Melvin Gordon, Williams finished his rookie season as the RB25 in half-PPR, averaging 11.0 PPG. Considering the improvements made to the offensive line, the addition of head coach Sean Payton, and Williams' impressive rookie season, drafting him within the top 12 would not be unreasonable.

Would choosing him over Travis Etienne be justifiable if he hadn't been hurt? Absolutely. What about Najee Harris? Without a doubt. Interestingly, Yahoo! fantasy managers are currently drafting Etienne as the RB13 and Harris as the RB11. How much should we discount his price due to his injury before the potential rewards outweigh the risks?

As of now, he is being drafted as the RB29, with Harris and Etienne going in the third round. Williams, on the other hand, can be acquired in the seventh round. At this price, Williams becomes an attractive target. Drafting a top-15 RB in the seventh round offers significant upside. Even if he starts the season slowly, he could become a league winner in the second half.

How many seventh-round picks have that kind of potential? The injury risk is more than adequately priced into his current value and then some, to be honest. Williams' recovery has not been as challenging as Dobbins', so we should stop making that comparison. Nevertheless, we should be grateful for the opportunity to draft Williams at such a reasonable cost.

Players to Avoid- None

Despite the hiring of Sean Payton, fantasy managers seem to have doubts about Russell Wilson and the Broncos' offense, which seems like a mistake. There aren't any players that we need to avoid here. There is a strong case to be made for targeting most of the Broncos' offensive players, rather than avoiding them.

Wilson, who has been a regular top-10 quarterback for years, is currently ranked as the QB18. While last year was undoubtedly a tough season for him, it's important to note that he lost his starting left tackle, Garett Bolles, for 12 games. Williams missed 13 games, Tim Patrick missed all 17, and Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy each missed two games and left early in others. Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich missed seven games as well.

On top of all that, Wilson was playing in a new city for the first time with a new team and a new coach (who was then fired after just one year). Considering Wilson's long history of elite fantasy production, it seems fair to give him another chance.

Jeudy, currently being drafted as the WR25, is one of the top targets this season. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on him in their drafts. To learn more details on why, check out my wide receiver breakout article here and my blind resume wide receiver article here. Sutton (WR42) and Dulcich (TE16) are also reasonably priced, and both are more likely to be targeted than avoided. Sutton is featured in the blind resume receiver article.

Kansas City Chiefs

Players to Target- WR Skyy Moore & WR Rashee Rice

Players to Avoid- WR Kadarius Toney

We'll group these three players together because there is a significant overlap. Yahoo! fantasy managers have Kadarius Toney ranked as the WR36, Skyy Moore ranked as the WR55, and Rashee Rice ranked at WR64. Their draft positions are in the seventh, 12th, and 14th rounds, respectively. Both Moore and Rice should be targeted by fantasy managers this season. Buying Moore and Rice would be favorable at their respective costs rather than Toney.

However, fantasy managers seem to have a high level of confidence that Toney will operate as the Chiefs' number-one receiver behind star tight end Travis Kelce, which is troubling. We should approach this group of receivers in the same way we approach an ambiguous backfield of running backs. There's uncertainty, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Uncertainty often presents opportunities.

However, since we don't know how the roles, playing time, and especially the targets will be distributed, we should focus on the cheaper options. After all, has Toney done anything to earn such a high level of trust? He is entering his third NFL season, already playing for his second team, and he has never recorded 60 receptions, 40 catches, or 425 yards in a single season.

If we extrapolate his per-game averages over 17 games, he would only have 69 targets, 49 receptions, and 529 yards. Out of the 22 games he has played in his career, he has surpassed 40 receiving yards in only four of them. These numbers show that fantasy managers are overly confident in Toney being the clear number-one receiver for the Chiefs this year.

The above post is taken from Moore's Reception Perception profile, which can be found here. Matt Harmon is still very optimistic about Moore. Although his rookie season may have been considered a disappointment, it is crucial to remember that the Chiefs were focused on winning immediately. Veteran receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman Jr., and Marquez Valdes-Scantling were also ahead of him on the depth chart.

Transitioning from Western Michigan to the NFL also signifies a significant leap in competition for Moore. In hindsight, it should have been expected that he would need time to develop. Here is what Matt Harmon had to say about Moore:

“He’s no lock to hit but overall, I still have plenty of faith in Skyy Moore to be a quality NFL player. He never really had the full profile of a No. 1 receiver and his rookie season RP doesn’t hint at that future. However, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he’s an underneath, slot-heavy volume sponge and could end up as the Chiefs’ second-most productive pass-catcher after Travis Kelce in 2023.”

Rice had an exceptional senior year at SMU, accumulating 157 targets, 96 receptions, 1,355 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He commanded a 30.6% target share and served as SMU's primary receiving option.

Additionally, Rice is a bigger receiver compared to both Toney and Moore, both of whom weigh less than 200 pounds. While Moore may be the safer draft target over Rice having been with the Chiefs last season, Rice is an exceptional athlete. General Manager Brett Veach has spoken highly of Rice, envisioning a role similar to the one Smith-Schuster had last season.

Fantasy managers should avoid the more expensive option in Toney and consider pivoting to Moore and Rice instead, both of whom are much more affordable. The receiver rotation in Kansas City is far from settled, and fantasy managers would be wise to target the less expensive options.

For example, fantasy managers can draft Jahan Dotson, who was listed as a player to target in the NFC East entry within the same range as Toney. Then Moore or Rice can be selected later in the draft if they want to have a piece of the Chiefs' offense.

Las Vegas Raiders

Players to Target- TE Michael Mayer

Michael Mayer is being drafted by Yahoo! fantasy managers as the TE23 in the 15th round. Considering his prospect profile and landing spot, fantasy managers should target him. The Raiders traded Darren Waller this offseason and signed veterans O.J. Howard and Austin Hooper. This could limit Mayer's early-season snaps as he adjusts to the NFL. Nonetheless, he has great potential that is not reflected in his current price.

In 2022, new Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had an 18.8% tight end share in 11 games with the 49ers. In 2021, his tight end share was 22.3%, it was 27.2% in 2020, and it was 27.5% in 2019. The league average tight end target share in 2021 was 21%.

One could argue that his high tight end target share was influenced by having George Kittle, but it is still a positive factor. Additionally, Garoppolo's intended air yards per attempt average in the past few years has been relatively low. This benefits tight ends since they often run shorter routes.

Players to Avoid- WR Jakobi Meyers

For the past two years, Jakobi Meyers has been a favorite late-round pick because he was New England's number-one receiver and commanded a high target share. Despite the team's offensive limitations, he was a solid flex option and a player who could be inserted into starting lineups if needed. This provided great value from a late-round draft pick. However, now that he has switched teams, that appeal has vanished.

In Las Vegas, there is no path for him to become the number one target or maintain a solid target share. Davante Adams virtually eliminates those possibilities, as he had 180 and 169 targets in the past two seasons with target shares of 32.6% and 31.6%, respectively. Currently, Yahoo! fantasy managers are drafting Meyers as the WR53, which means he still only costs an 11th-round pick.

There are several other receivers to target who either have a better chance of being reliable role players or possess more upside. Meyers no longer has the same appeal as a cheap receiver who could finish as a WR3 due to volume. In previous years, fantasy managers knew that he lacked significant upside but, as a late-round pick, he could serve as a starter due to injuries. That value proposition no longer exists in Las Vegas.

If you're looking for a cost-effective, flex-level player, you are better off pivoting to Rondale Moore at WR56, Romeo Doubs at WR60, or Nico Collins at WR62. Even Giants receivers Isaiah Hodgins (WR77) and Darius Slayton (WR90) offer a more economical path to achieving that goal.

Moreover, all of these players have greater upside and potential compared to Meyers, making them better value picks. If you're seeking pure upside, Meyers is not the optimal choice. It is better to target Skyy Moore at WR55 or Jonathan Mingo at WR67.

Los Angeles Chargers

Players to Target- WR Keenan Allen

People, we have to stop acting like Keenan Allen is injury-prone. This silly narrative has resurfaced after he missed seven games last year due to a nagging hamstring injury. For some reason, fantasy managers have chosen to forget the previous five years and connect 2022 to his 2015 and 2016 seasons. Let's address this issue.

• 2013 – 15/16 games played
• 2014 – 14/16 games played
• 2015 – 8/16 games played (lacerated spleen)
• 2016 – 1/16 games played (torn ACL)
• 2017 – 16/16 games played
• 2018 – 16/16 games played
• 2019 – 16/16 games played
• 2020 – 14/16 games played (one game missed due to being on the Covid-19 list)
• 2021 – 16/17 games played
• 2022 – 10/17 games played

Outside of those 2015 and 2016 seasons, he has played in 117 out of 129 games, which accounts for 91% of the contests over eight seasons. This injury-prone narrative is simply unfounded, especially considering that nine of his 35 missed games (26%) were due to freak incidents like a lacerated spleen and being on the Covid list.

Now that we've cleared things up, let's discuss why you should target Allen. Yahoo! fantasy managers are currently drafting him as the WR17. However, he finished as the WR4 in 2017, WR18 in 2018, WR15 in 2019, WR11 in 2020, and WR11 in 2021. From Weeks 11-17 of this past season, Allen performed as the WR9.

If that wasn't reason enough to target him, remember that the Chargers replaced Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator this offseason. This is seen as a significant upgrade for Justin Herbert and the entire Chargers offense. Allen is likely to operate in the same role that CeeDee Lamb had last year in Dallas.

Another point to consider is that fantasy managers should expect more passing touchdowns to be thrown in Los Angeles this season. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Herbert had a 5.4% touchdown rate, which dropped to 3.6% last season. Assuming it reverts closer to Herbert's average, Allen will have the potential to find the end zone more frequently in 2023.

Truly, that is an incredible value, and he can currently be drafted in the fourth round. Fantasy managers shouldn't pass up on receivers with this kind of upside and history of production in the fourth round. Especially considering the quarterback throwing to him and the offense that he plays in. Allen is simply one of the best values available and is an absolute steal.

Players to Avoid- None

There doesn't seem to be a single player for the Chargers that fantasy managers need to avoid at all costs. Justin Herbert is being drafted as the QB7 in the fourth round, and he has legitimate top-five potential with Kellen Moore as his offensive coordinator.

Additionally, the renewed health of Allen, Mike Williams, and star left tackle Rashawn Slater is a positive factor. The team will also have Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett, and Austin Ekeler returning along with the addition of first-round receiver, Quentin Johnston. Herbert is in a position to exceed his current draft cost.

Other notable Chargers include Ekeler, who is being drafted as the RB2, Williams as the WR27, Johnston as the WR44, and Everett as the TE19. None of these prices should make fantasy managers hesitant.

Ekeler has been a top-three running back in each of the last two seasons, and the team made no additions to the backfield while upgrading the offensive line. Johnston has significant upside as the WR44, even as the third receiver for the Chargers. If Williams or Allen were to miss any time then he becomes a locked-in top-24 receiver.

Kellen Moore consistently involved Dalton Schultz in the passing game in Dallas, which makes Everett appealing. Drafting the starting tight end on what should be a top-10 offense and likely a top-five passing volume offense carries very little risk at TE19.

If there's one player that presents some risk, it's Williams. However, over the past two seasons, Williams has been a top-10 receiver in nine out of 29 games (31%). He has also been a top-30 receiver 48% of the time. He hasn't been as boom or bust as people think. Remember, the regular season consists of 15 one-week matchups. Williams' high upside, evidenced by his top-10 hit rate of 31% (eighth-highest over the past two seasons), makes him worth targeting as a WR3.

As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.

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