The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 13

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 13 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 13 - June 19th through June 25th. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to...for now.

We may have reached an unlucky number this week but at this stage, it's unlikely a player's struggles are down to bad luck. That may still be the case for some players which is why it's more important than ever to avoid dropping the wrong guy for someone on an unsustainable hot streak and why we should be looking deeper than a player's basic numbers.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Note that this week's article was completed on Thursday evening, and contains stats through Thursday June 15th. I will be away this weekend to update the article, and won't be around personally to take your requests or answer your question. But feel free to reach out on Twitter and I'll get back to you when I return next week.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Josh Rojas - 2B/3B, Arizona Diamondbacks - 21% rostered

Rojas emerged in 2022 as a speedster who could help across the board in fantasy. In 125 games, Rojas hit .269/.349/.391 with nine homers, 56 RBI, 66 runs and 23 stolen bases. After entering this season with an ADP of ~215, Rojas hasn't been able to come close to providing value.

After 54 games, Rojas is hitting .237/.298/.311 with no homers, 26 RBI, 22 runs and six steals. He is on course for potentially setting career highs in RBI and runs, largely down to the Diamondbacks offense ranking in the top 10 in most categories.

But the power has completely evaporated, the speed hasn't been replicated and the hit tool has regressed. Let's take a look at each of the three factors, starting with Rojas' hit tool.

Rojas has seen a drop in the quality of contact he makes with 25.6% HardHit% ranking in the fifth percentile and down from 36.1% last year. He experienced good fortune last year with a .239 xBA and it's actually the same story this year with a .220 xBA (14th percentile).

It's not just about the quality of contact Rojas has been making, however. Last year, his 10.8% BB% was in the 81st percentile. That has dropped to an 8.1% BB% this year (43rd percentile). Alarmingly, after putting up a 19.9% Chase% in 2022 (96th percentile), that has ballooned to a 28.6% Chase% this year (42nd percentile).

That led me to look at Rojas' Swing Take Profile for last year and this year. The below shows them for the last two years.

Rojas has seen a near-identical rate of pitches in each area as he did last year but it's noticeable that he's taken a lot more pitches in the heart of the zone while swinging more at pitches in the shadow area. That will certainly go a long way to explaining why his hitting has regressed and he's getting on base less this year.

We've already mentioned Rojas' decline in HardHit% and the same is true for his Barrel% (down from 4.5% to 3.0%) and Average Exit Velocity (down from 88.8 MPH to 86.6 MPH). That's all led to a .303 xSLG (down from .361 last year) which ranks in the second percentile.

Finally, the speed, which won't surprise you when I say it's in decline too. His 26.5 ft/sec is a career-low and ranks in the 33rd percentile. Last year, it was 27.3 ft/sec which still only ranked in the 50th percentile so stealing 23 bases in 2022 was quite an impressive achievement.

The ironic thing is that the main concern about Rojas last year was his defense, which is the only part of his game that has improved this year. Unfortunately, that's not been enough to prevent a recent drop in playing time with the emergence of Emmanuel Rivera taking away starts at third base.

Verdict: Rojas has seen a steady decline in the number of rosters he's on and given every facet of his hitting has declined this year, even if there was an injury that opened up everyday at-bats for Rojas, it's hard to justify rostering him in anything but the deepest leagues.

Tyler Anderson - SP, Los Angeles Angels - 21% rostered

This might seem like a personal vendetta I have against Anderson given I included him back in the week five edition of The Cut List and said he was fine to drop then. That's after I had already called him a draft bust in a preseason article. It's nothing personal, I just don't understand why he has only dropped from being on 52% of rosters seven weeks ago to 21% now.

Granted, after his previous Cut List inclusion, Anderson put up a 3.14 ERA across his next five starts, but even then it was clear he wasn't a reliable option given his 5.94 xFIP and 5.85 SIERA during those five starts. They're very similar to his 5.82 xFIP and 5.59 SIERA over the course of the season so far.

Anderson's 2023 numbers do not paint a pretty picture, with a 3-1 W-L record, 5.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 45 Ks in 12 starts (63.2 IP). And while his underlying numbers tell us this isn't just bad luck, I will admit that his .314 BABIP is elevated and should come down, but not to the point it'll change any outlook on Anderson.

I won't go through all the reasons I was down on Anderson in-depth but I will point out the issues which are highlighted on his Statcast profile.

Anderson's average fastball velocity was 90.7 MPH last year. It has crept up from 89.1 MPH back in week five to 89.7 MPH now and it sat at 90.8 MPH during Monday's start. But four starts ago on May 24, it averaged 89.0 MPH so it's hard to trust with any consistency.

And his start on Monday saw Anderson give up five earned runs in six innings, so averaging ~91.0 MPH on his fastball doesn't equal success. It did lead to a season-high equalling seven strikeouts, but as we can see, Anderson's 15.5% K% is in the tenth percentile and is a career-low.

After having a 5.1% BB% over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Anderson's 10.3% BB% this year is the second-highest of his career (10.4% BB% in 2019). He's walked two or more batters in 11 of his 12 starts. While Anderson does still induce soft contact, he's allowing far too much of it and the free passes are amplifying things.

To round things off, Anderson's home ballpark is one of the more hitter-friendly ones around and with the Angels working with a six-man rotation, he's starting fewer games than he would anywhere else.

Verdict: There's nothing to like in Anderson's numbers or profile, except he's somehow got a 3-1 W-L record. Maybe you could justify streaming him against weaker opponents if you need a win but even then, he's only picked up a win from 25% of his starts. the Angels have just done a good job ensuring he doesn't pick up losses. Outside of that, there really isn't a reason to roster him.

Brett Baty - 3B, New York Mets - 17% rostered

I toyed with Baty's inclusion here quite a lot and given he's on less than 20% of teams already (something of a loose threshold I have), it feels like Baty can be used as an example of most rookies as well as a specific reflection of his own performances.

You see, rookies can struggle. Even the best ones. Just look at Anthony Volpe, Grayson Rodriguez and Triston Casas. All are highly thought of prospects and all have struggled for the most part this year. And it's not just that trio.

While Baty hasn't struggled to the levels of some, he has seen a decline in his numbers. On the year, Baty has four homers, 18 RBI, 18 runs and one stolen base with a .229/.312/.346 slash line (47 games).

If we look at Baty's numbers as the season has progressed, you'll see how he has regressed after a hot start.

Of course, we're looking at a smaller sample than most given Baty didn't make his Major League debut this year until April 17. And Baty's 10.4% BB% for a rookie is impressive while he's also hitting the ball hard (49.6% HardHit%).

Baty also has better expected numbers with a .257 xBA, .412 xSLG and .335 xwOBA (.295 wOBA). But they are all still mediocre and his quality of contact has been in slight decline as the season progresses.

It could be a simple case of MLB pitchers figuring out the best way to pitch against Baty and the youngster needing to make adjustments. Something that is as common as rookies struggling. And I'm not betting against Baty from doing that but for this year, it's difficult to see Baty providing much fantasy value.

Verdict: It should go without saying that Baty is a must-hold in dynasty leagues and even in deeper leagues, I wouldn't cut him yet. I can even make a case for holding Baty in standard leagues given his upside and I do believe he'll have periods of production this year. But in shallower leagues, it's difficult to warrant rostering Baty this year.

Hold For Now

Ian Happ - OF, Chicago Cubs - 76% rostered

Happ ended a 33-game homerless streak on Tuesday, something that has driven fantasy managers to the brink of despair and made many drop him. During that spell, Happ hit .222/.350/.274 with six RBI, six runs and just six extra-base hits.

Despite the struggles, Happ is still ranked among the top 300 players on Yahoo! and top 75 outfielders. Neither is something you'll throw a parade about but unlike some struggling hitters, he's still been rosterable since Opening Day.

On the season, Happ is hitting .268/.390/.406 with five homers, 31 RBI, 25 runs and five stolen bases (67 games). Needless to say, in OBP leagues, Happ has considerably more value as among the 162 qualified hitters, only 10 have an OBP better than him.

I won't pretend Happ is a difference-maker and a top-20 outfielder. But he is someone you can put in your lineups as a fourth or fifth outfielder and forget about. The last few weeks have been rough but Happ's ability to get on base does provide a better floor than most.

And if we look at his xwOBA over the last 50, 100 and 250 plate appearances, we'll see that for almost the entirety of the season, he's been a better-than-league-average hitter while also performing much better of late.

It hasn't helped that the Cubs have been a bottom-10 offense this season and someone who has exclusively hit third or fourth in the lineup this year should have more RBI and runs than Happ does. But that's not under his control.

The fact that four times in recent weeks, the Cubs felt the need to have Miles Mastrobuoni hit leadoff despite a .254 OBP and has demoted him to Triple-A twice this season already sums up how their season has been.

Happ doesn't pick the lineups and despite having the profile of being a perfect leadoff hitter, he's still hitting in the heart of the lineup which will only help his fantasy value. Assuming his upturn in performance isn't a false dawn, I'm still holding on in pretty much any league that has more than three outfielders in the lineups.

Eugenio Suarez - 3B, Seattle Mariners - 56% rostered

This is my third year doing The Cut List and I don't think I have ever flip-flopped about a player more in that time. But, I've settled on holding on to Suárez for now. He featured here only five weeks ago in the week eight edition when I also said he was a hold.

Back then, I explained how there was nothing in the numbers to suggest Suárez would return to his 30-homers-a-year self but also, there was nothing in his profile to suggest his power had gone and wouldn't return. And despite seeing the number of rosters he's on drop by 20%, Suárez has actually improved since his week eight inclusion.

His fantasy line is nothing the be excited about, with a .216/.311/.331 slash line, seven homers, 39 RBI, 26 runs and one stolen base (67 games). I figured it would be a good idea to compare where Suárez's numbers are now with where they were five weeks ago, which the below table shows.

As we can see, all but the batting average has seen an uptick and the SLG and xSLG have seen noticeable improvements. Suárez has a career .450 xSLG so this year's mark is much closer than it has been and the slugger has improved in recent weeks.

I will state that I do not expect his batting average to improve by much, if at all. Suárez's .224 xBA is actually his highest since 2019 and I think we can safely say, anything above .220 will be a bonus. The concern has been the lack of power and the 162-game pace of 17 home runs Suárez finds himself on is a far cry from the 31 he's hit in each of the previous two seasons.

With a lowly batting average, Suárez has to hit for power to provide any positive fantasy value and at least we are seeing signs of that in recent weeks. Only eight players have a greater disparity between their SLG and xSLG so we know there's been an element of bad luck which can right itself over the coming months.

I fully understand if someone has dropped Suárez already and holding onto a third baseman who ranks outside the top 30 at the position may seem foolish. But we can see there have been signs of improvement and if they continue to trend this way, I still believe Suárez can end the year with ~25 homers.

Vinnie Pasquantino - 1B, Kansas City Royals - 82% rostered

There I was, sat with my laptop on Wednesday evening writing out the draft of this week's Cut List. Then, my Twitter machine alerted me to this.

Awful news for the Royals: First baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, their best hitter, is done for the season after tearing the labrum in his right shoulder. He'll need surgery.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) June 14, 2023

I'd already held off including Pasquantino in the previous week's Cut List but was committed this week, even after he hit the IL. With the news he is set to miss the rest of this season, Pasquantino is a definite drop in redraft leagues but I figured I would still do a little analysis of his long-term prospects in dynasty leagues.

Obviously, the injury sustained is a serious one and even today, there's no guarantee someone returns close to their previous level when they return. So all I can do is give a projection of the future based on his past on the assumption he returns 100% healthy next year.

Given the nature of Pasquantino's injury and the fact he has struggled to a .216/.273/.294 slash line since his last home run on May 22, it's quite possible he's been playing with the injury for some time before landing on the IL.

If we look at Pasquantino's numbers prior to May, he hit .279/.375/.500 with five homers and 137 wRC+ (29 games). That came on the back of a 72-game MLB debut last year in which Pasquantino hit .295/.383/.450 with 10 homers.

What has been most impressive about Pasquantino is his ability to hit the ball hard while showing great plate discipline. As a Major Leaguer, Pasquantino has a 10.8% BB% and 11.6% K%.

To give you an idea as to how good a hitter Pasquantino is, I ran the numbers to see how many hitters have at least a 10.0% BB%, at most a 12.0% K% and a 35.0% Hard% or better since last year (minimum of 450 plate appearances). The result was one player. Vinnie Pasquantino.

It's hard to foresee the Royals getting much better in the near future which will harm Pasquantino's fantasy value but there should be no doubting his ability. Very few hitters possess his ability to drive the ball hard, walk a solid amount and rarely strike out.

Pasquantino is someone I'll be targeting in drafts again next year, assuming he's back to full health and ready for Spring. If you're rebuilding in dynasty leagues, Pasquantino is someone I'd target in a trade as a key piece for the future.

On the Hot Seat

Dansby Swanson - SS, Chicago Cubs - 95% rostered

Swanson has been the poster child for reliability, at least in regard to health. He missed just two games in the previous three seasons including playing in 162 games during his huge 2022 year in which he ended the season as the tenth overall ranked player on Yahoo!.

On the surface, this year has been a letdown so far with Swanson having six homers, 29 RBI, 31 runs and four stolen bases while hitting .263/.352/.397 in 67 games. But what if I told you that actually, Swanson is having the best year of his career?

A quick glance at his Statcast profiles from last year and this year shows us is many of his metrics are similar or even better in 2023.

To give you a visual of the actual numbers we're looking at, the below compares some of Swanson's numbers in 2021, 2022 and 2023.

The only thing that hasn't been better from Swanson this year is his HardHit% which is more in line with his 2021 number. That just happened to be the year in which Swanson hit a career-high 27 homers. This year, Swanson is on pace to hit just 15 home runs.

But as we all know, there's more to hitting home runs than just hitting the ball hard and this is where Swanson has seen regression; in his Batted Ball Profile. Another table for you and this one highlights where the issue lies with Swanson this year.

More groundballs and fewer flyballs generally equate to regression and add in fewer of his flyballs clearing the fences, it's easy to see why Swanson isn't set to come close to reaching 25 homers for a third straight season.

According to Statcast Park Factors, Wrigley Field is similar to Truist Park for home runs for right-handed hitters so we can't put it down to his new home but his new team certainly hasn't aided Swanson's fantasy value.

The Braves were a top-five offense last year and again this year while the Cubs rank in the bottom half in offensive categories. That will obviously hurt Swanson's RBI and runs totals and he's only on pace for 70-75 in each category.

There's not much Swanson can do about that but he can help his cause by elevating the ball more. We've seen players make adjustments in the past and start doing this (Yandy Diaz is the best example) but doing it in season isn't so easy.

There's also a common belief that players struggle more early in a new big contract and after signing a seven-year contract worth $177m, that could be having an impact. Just not a quantifiable one.

I'm still not going to bet against Swanson making the adjustments and he's still ranked as a top-200 player on Yahoo! so despite not providing value on his ADP, Swanson is still at least proving rosterable.

If the other metrics start regressing and Swanson shows less quality contact or worse plate discipline, the decline in his numbers could be such that Swanson isn't a viable option in shallower leagues. Until such time, I'd continue holding though.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

I will be away this weekend so won't be around personally to take your requests or answer your questions but feel free to reach out on Twitter and I'll get back to you when I return next week.

Matt Chapman - 3B, Toronto Blue Jays - 92% rostered

Chapman's start to the 2023 season was so good, he was named AL Player of the Month for April. That was after hitting .384/.465/.687 to start the season. What followed was not good and in May, Chapman hit just .202/.273/.312.

Chapman's season numbers now stand at nine homers, 34 RBI, 35 runs and two stolen bases with a .267/.344/.463 slash line (68 games). That has led me to be asked my favorite question; "what is the real version of Chapman?". And my answer is as it normally is. The whole of it is the real Chapman.

No one expected him to continue with his torrid pace to begin the season but no one would have expected Chapman's numbers to plummet quite like they have. But when we consider Chapman had a career slash line of .240/.329/.469 coming into the season, his numbers this year are pretty similar.

After hitting 27 homers in each of the last two seasons, Chapman's 162-game pace is for 22 homers so his recent slump has dragged down his projected numbers. But he's still ranked 13th among third basemen and is one of only 10 at the position with that many RBI and runs.

One of the best things about rostering Chapman is even when he struggles, the Platinum Glove Award Winner will continue to play every day due to his defense.

That’s Platinum Glove Award WINNER Matt Chapman to you 😤 #NextLevel pic.twitter.com/322mDZMao8

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) June 10, 2023

Fantasy managers don't benefit from great defense, of course, and need Chapman to start producing as he ranks 35th among third basemen over the last 30 days (according to Yahoo!). And I'm confident he will do so.

If we look at Chapman's monthly numbers over the previous two seasons, we'll see how big his ups and downs can be. Just looking at his Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), the difference between his best and worst months is stark.

This year, Chapman had a 218 wRC+ in April and 64 wRC+ in May (100 is the league average). Last year, Chapman had a 69 wRC+ in May and a 205 wRC+ in July. In 2021, he had a 54 wRC+ in July and a 165 wRC+ in August. All players are subject to big months and cold streaks but these differences are stark.

So none of this is new with Chapman. Obviously, his slump is prolonged and beginning to frustrate fantasy managers. But this is a case where you need to take a step back, zoom out and look at the bigger picture. I fully expect Chapman to end the year with ~25 homers and 80+ RBI and runs.

Tommy Edman - 2B/SS/OF - St. Louis Cardinals - 90% rostered

A lot of the annoyance among fantasy managers with Edman is due to him hitting ninth in the order. He does hit lead-off regularly against left-handed pitching (LHP) with the starts against righties the ones seeing him hit ninth. And if we look at his splits, you'll see why.

We can see that Edman has always had better numbers against LHP than RHP, but this year those splits have widened to the point he's lucky to be playing against righties. If it wasn't for the injuries suffered to their outfield, the Cardinals might not play Edman against RHP all too often.

But Edman's overall numbers this year have been solid. After 66 games, he's hitting .237/.296/.406 with seven homers, 26 RBI, 32 runs and 10 stolen bases. And Wednesday saw Edman hit a grand slam off rightie Anthony DeSclafani, his fourth home run of the year against RHP.

Edman's multi-positional eligibility does offer appeal in fantasy and he's ranked inside the top-25 at second base and shortstop while being a top-65 outfielder (according to Yahoo!). So he's a perfectly fine bench option you can fit into different positions in your teams when needed.

He just won't provide much more value than he has so far this year as he'll continue to hit down the order against RHP. That will continue to suppress his value but Edman has still shown he's capable of providing some return for fantasy managers.

In truth, if it wasn't for the fact he can slot in at more than one position in your lineups, Edman probably wouldn't be as highly rostered as he is. For now, he remains a borderline option in shallower leagues and a solid option in all other leagues. Just keep an eye on his playing times once the Cardinals outfield gets healthy.

Christian Walker - 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks - 89% rostered

Another slugger who has homered in the early part of the week and Walker is someone I actually think should be on more teams than he is rather than being considered for dropping. Seven weeks ago, Walker was included in The Cut List as a hold and was only 77% rostered.

Yet, it feels like every week I'm asked about him. Maybe expectations are too high as Walker has been productive this year. He is currently hitting .257/.324/.486 with 13 homers, 42 RBI, 38 runs and one stolen base (65 games). That has Walker ranked sixth among first baseman and sitting just outside the top 50 overall players on Yahoo!.

Walker has a career-low 18.1% K% and all of his starts have come in the cleanup spot for a Diamondbacks offense that ranks in the top 10 for most hitting categories. Walker ranks in the top 10 at first base for homers, RBI and runs while his batting average is better than the league average (.248).

There is a small note of caution in that Walker's expected stats are less than his actual numbers. But as we can see below, they are still better than most, including his .454 xSLG which has the biggest disparity to his actual mark.

Even if Walker's numbers do regress, we're still looking at a starting first baseman in shallow leagues and someone on track for ~30 homers. As long as the Diamondbacks offense continues to perform as they are, ~100 RBI and runs are in play (both of which would be career highs).

There's nothing to suggest Walker should be a drop candidate and even if the likely regression to his expected numbers occurs, it won't be enough to change that. Plug him into your roster and just forget about it while he continues to tally up the stats.

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