Elly De La Cruz, Fantasy Baseball's Next Superstar

June 15, 2023

Eric dives into the fantasy baseball profile of stud fantasy baseball prospect Elly De La Cruz, and discusses the impact for redraft and dynasty leagues.

Baseball truly is the best sport in the world. Yes, I’m certainly biased as a baseball and fantasy baseball writer who has the privilege of covering the most talented players in the world from before they’re drafted all the way up to the Majors Leagues. But this game graces us with an exuberant amount of exciting, young talent each and every season, and every now and then, we witness a new generational talent debut in the Major Leagues.

The latest generational talent to step foot on a Major League diamond is Cincinnati Reds SS/3B prospect, Elly De La Cruz. In this article, I’m going to break down the dynamic profile of De La Cruz, offer some thoughts on his short-term value for redraft leagues, and of course, discuss how great and impactful he can be in fantasy baseball leagues long-term.

So, without further ado, grad some popcorn and your favorite beverage, because this is going to be one heck of a ride. And please, keep all arms and legs within the ride at all times.

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Elly De La Cruz, Fantasy Baseball's Next Superstar

Minor League Track Record

Before the 2020 lost season, Elly De La Cruz was merely an intriguing international signing with upside but that's about it. The AVG and OBP were solid in the DSL, but De La Cruz didn't hit for much power with only one home run in 186 plate appearances with an ISO under .100. But then the floodgates opened. In 964 plate appearances since the start of 2021, De La Cruz has racked up 48 home runs and 68 steals including his massive 28/47 season in 2022.

Profile

Obviously, the power/speed blend De La Cruz brings to the table is monumental. You don't put up the type of numbers he has out of luck. De La Cruz's power grades out as a 70 and his speed as an 80. Both of those have been on full display already in his limited time with Cincinnati as he's recorded 19 batted ball events so far and 12 of them have been hard-hit. One of those was a 458-foot blast that was nearly hit entirely out of Great American Ball Park.

De La Cruz also already established himself as one of the fastest players in the Major Leagues with a 100th percentile sprint speed and the fastest home-to-third time of any player this season.

The amount of speed and raw power that De La Cruz possesses almost isn't fair. It's like when you create a player in MLB the show and don't have any restrictions on how good you can make the player. Someone from the future could come back to present day and tell me that De La Cruz just went 40/50 in the year 2026, and I would absolutely believe them. Even if the hit tool can just be fringe-average, he's going to be a fantasy monster.

However, that hit tool and his approach are the questions with De La Cruz's profile. As shown above, strikeouts have been an issue for him throughout his professional career, but progress has been made. After recording a 17.7% SwStr rate in Lo-A back in 2021, De La Cruz dropped that to 17% in Hi-A, 14% in Double-A, and 13.1% in Triple-A this season. And so far with Cincinnati, Elly has a 12% SwStr rate along with a 69.4% contact rate, 77.3% Zone Contact Rate, 27.5% Chase Rate, and 31.9% Whiff Rate.

While I'd like to see the whiff rate come down and the zone contact rate to go up, we can absolutely live with these numbers from Elly. Aaron Judge has routinely been in the 70% contact range and it has worked for him given his elite quality of contact metrics. The same sentiment can be true for Elly. When you possess an elite level of power and speed, you're going to run a higher BABIP more often than not. So even at these levels, De La Cruz could still hit for a respectable average. And imagine if he continues improving his contact and approach metrics? That's a scary thought.

People want to compare him to recent exciting debuts, Oneil Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Stop it. Both of them have the upside to be top-25 fantasy players, but neither are on the same level as De La Cruz when it comes to pure upside and ceiling for fantasy.

Where Does He Play Long-Term?

This is a question I've been asked plenty of times. De La Cruz played both shortstop and third base in the minor leagues and has played both spots in the Majors so far as well, starting five games at third base and four at shortstop. In those four games at shortstop, Matt McLain has shifted from shortstop to second base and India from second base to DH.

This is the alignment I can see predominantly moving forward. With Noelvi Marte due up within the next year or so and likely to occupy the hot corner longterm, De La Cruz at shortstop and McLain at second base makes a lot of sense. Is that a lock? Absolutely not. Marte could move to a corner outfield position, McLain has the flexibility to play in the outfield, and we still need to factor in Christian Encarnacion-Strand as well. I'd bank on shortstop with third base as the backup option. But regardless, this skillset could make him an elite player at whatever spot he winds up at.

Short-Term Impact (Redraft)

It doesn’t matter how talented a player is or how dominant they were in the minor leagues, a rookie is still a rookie. If you’ve followed my written work over the years or over on The Toolshed podcast, you’ll know that I’ve mentioned three ideal times to sell (or buy) a prospect or young player.

1. Right after they are drafted or signed.
2. When their debut is imminent and the hype is building.
3. After they've debuted and had success.

These three times to sell can be applied to both redraft and dynasty leagues. But for this section, we're focusing on 2023 only. While De La Cruz has improved his approach a bit over the years, he's far from being Luis Arraez or Juan Soto in the approach department. De la Cruz is still prone to additional swing-and-miss tendencies and that has shown in his first nine games with 15 strikeouts for a 37.5% strikeout rate.

But even if the AVG is a bit lower initially, De La Cruz can still provide plenty of fantasy value due to his power and speed. He only has one home run so far, but has already stolen five bases.

I'm fine holding or selling. If you're fine with the AVG potentially being lower, then go ahead and hold and reap the rewards of his power/speed blend. But if you're looking to cash out for a massive return via trade, now is the time to do so. The only path I wouldn't be venturing down is the bath that leads to trying to trade for him. For what it would take to acquire him, there's a small chance of the trade working out for you.

Long-Term Impact (Dynasty)

There aren't many players with a higher fantasy ceiling than De La Cruz. In fact, the only three players that I can say without doubt match or exceed De La Cruz's upside are Ronald Acuña Jr, Fernando Tatís Jr., and the human cheat code, Shohei Ohtani.

Even after just a week and a half in the Major Leagues, De La Cruz needs to be in the top-25 overall dynasty conversation, and that's exactly where I have him in my current top-500 dynasty rankings. This is just the beginning too. If De La Cruz is able to reach the level of power and speed in the Major Leagues consistently in games that he's shown over the last few years in the minors, we're talking about a top-5 overall dynasty player.

If you currently roster him, it would take a king's ransom to trade him away. Basically, don't trade him unless you get a significant overpay as his price tag and value should only continue to rise from here. Unless you're in a league with me, then by all means, send him my way.

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