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Casey Wilson's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/30/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Tuesday, everyone! It sure feels like a Monday. We have a full 15-game slate ahead of us today as we are in the thick of the MLB season. Yesterday was a wild day of baseball as we saw two of the worst teams in baseball with upset wins. The Royals defeated the Cardinals, and the A's put a beat down on the Braves. You have to love May baseball. Today I will provide you with my two favorite straight moneyline bets.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, May 30, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL -145
CLE: Cal Quantrill | BAL: Kyle Gibson
The Cleveland Guardians (24-29) will battle the Baltimore Orioles (34-20) at Camden Yards this evening. Cal Quantrill will get the ball for the Guardians and face Kyle Gibson for the Orioles. Quantrill is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. Conversely, Gibson is 6-3 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. The O’s have the third-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.49 SIERA. The Guardians pen has a 3.84 SIERA, another slight advantage to the Orioles.
The significant advantage here for the O’s is on the offensive side of the ball. The Guardians are dead last in baseball with a 74 wRC+ against right-hand pitching. They have scored 133 runs and have a .226 AVG this season against the split. The Orioles have a 101 wRC+ against right-hand pitching. They have scored 170 runs and have a .246 AVG. Baltimore, at home with their ace on the bump here, should roll.
Pick: Baltimore moneyline (-145) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: NYY +125
NYY: Nestor Cortes | SEA: Logan Gilbert
The New York Yankees (33-23) will face the Seattle Mariners (28-26) on the road tonight. The Yankees are starting to trend in the right direction with Judge back in the mold, as they are 7-3 in their last ten games and have won three in a row. They are only six games back of the Rays for the AL East lead.
Nestor Cortes will get the ball for the Yankees and enters today's start with a 4-2 record, a 5.30 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. Gilbert has had a 3-2 record, a 3.60 ERA, and a 0.92 WHIP. Both bullpens are in the top ten in SIERA, as the Yankees have a 3.78 SIERA and the Mariners have a 3.43 SIERA.
The Yankees have a 103 wRC+ against right-hand pitching this year. They own a .318 wOBA and a .430 SLG. They are trending in the right direction with Judge back in the lineup. The Mariners, on the other hand, have struggled a bit against lefties. They have a 90 wRC+, a .294 wOBA, and a .382 SLG. The matchup here between the Yankees and Mariners is about as even as they come, and the +125 we are getting on the Yankees is a significant value. I'll side with the plus money and the better team.
Pick: Yankees moneyline (+125) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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