Florio's Bullpen Report - Making Sense of Early Season Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

1 year ago by Michael Florio

What Appears In This Article? hide

2. Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball

3. Elite Strikeouts and Ratios

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5. More Fantasy Baseball Advice

Welcome back, old friend! The long winter is over and baseball is back! This means for a third straight season, I will be writing the bullpen report here at RotoBaller. Each week, this article will not only highlight bullpens that have seen changes in late-inning scenarios but also speculate on bullpens that could undergo changes. This is so you have a leg up on grabbing a potential closer in waiting.

But it goes a step further as well. Each week, I will highlight some relievers who do not get saves that could still be useful for fantasy purposes. Those pitchers are typically relievers who post high strikeout rates with elite ratios.

These are pitchers that can come in handy if you are thin at pitcher. A couple of innings from an arm like that is far more useful than four or five innings from a backend starter who is a risk for blowing up your ratios. Make sure to check this out weekly to keep your fantasy pitching staff in the best possible shape you can.

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

The Texas Rangers' late-inning situation is certainly one to keep an eye on in the early portion of the season. We have only seen them pick up one save so far and it went to Will Smith. It's worth pointing out that Jose Leclerc was available for that outing. Clearly, we need to see more before we can just anoint Smith the closer, but as of now, he has the upper hand.

Smith remains highly available, having a lower roster percentage than Leclerc in some leagues. Smith is worth picking up, especially if you are in need of saves. Do not overpay as we still need more clarity, though. A bid between five and eight percent should be fine. Leclerc is worth rostering as well until the dust fully settles here.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen underwent a huge change just before the season as closer Daniel Bard announced he would be stepping away for a bit to deal with his anxiety. Mental health is important and it's great to see Bard prioritize it. We wish him a speedy recovery.

In the meantime, the first save chance went to Pierce Johnson, who quickly became a popular waiver wire target last weekend. Johnson is the preferred option in this bullpen. If he somehow is still on waivers, you can use around 10 percent of your FAAB budget to acquire him. Brad Hand is a deep shot for those in need of saves. He can be had for cheap, maybe even a minimum bid, and could get a couple of opportunities, especially if Johnson struggles. These are the type of arms I like to churn at the end of my roster until a closer sticks.

The Atlanta Braves were supposed to be set, but an injury to Raisel Iglesias flipped this bullpen on its head. While the Braves have not had an official save opportunity yet -- largely because they routinely blow out their opponents -- A.J. Minter has twice pitched in the ninth inning. On Monday, he pitched the ninth with a four-run lead. So not quite a save, but certainly telling. Minter is the top option here as long as Iglesias is sidelined. He is worth up to 10 percent of your FAAB budget, but ideally, less is possible as he is just an early-season bandage.

The Miami Marlins bullpen has been a tough one to figure out for the last couple of seasons. Coming into 2023, the expectation was that one of A.J. Puk, Dylan Floro, or Tanner Scott would get the save chances. Well, so far, Puk is the only one to get the chance. Of course, Miami has only had one save chance, but it went to Puk, with Floro pitching in a setup role.

Scott was used in a game the Marlins were trailing. This indicates that Puk and Floro are the top options, at least early on. Puk and Floro are both available in many leagues and Puk would be the top option to add. Still, I wouldn’t recommend spending more than 10 percent of your FAAB as we do not have enough answers yet. Floro will not cost as much, and he is worth rostering for those teams in need of saves.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen is in flux until Liam Hendriks returns from his battle with leukemia. Chicago did not place him on the 60-day IL, indicating that they expect him back sooner than later. But in his absence, Reynaldo Lopez got the first and only save chance for the Sox -- the first of his career. Kendall Graveman pitched the seventh and struggled and his strikeout rate is down at the moment. Lopez should be rostered wherever available, but spend around eight to 10 percent of your budget, as Lopez comes with a shelf life.

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball

The Minnesota Twins have a legitimate committee when it comes to the closer situation. They have two highly effective arms, Jorge Lopez and Jhoan Duran. Both are arms that can provide strong ratios and high strikeout rates. So far, the Twins have used each to pick up a save. We saw this at times last season and ultimately Lopez won out, picking up many more saves. His experience as a closer leads me to rank him as the top option in this bullpen -- but both need to be rostered in anything but shallow head-to-head leagues. Both Lopez and Duran are worth 10-15 percent of your FAAB if either is still available.

The Oakland Athletics are going to be a tough bullpen to figure out. If it's anything like past years, they will mix and match and never give us a clear-cut answer. But the top two options are Dany Jimenez and Trevor May. Jimenez picked up the lone save chance for the A’s, with May pitching the eighth.

Jimenez is the better pitcher of the two and should provide more strikeouts and better ratios. He is also younger and not on a one-year deal, making it less likely he is traded at some point. He is the top option and I would be okay spending 10 percent, if not a little more, for those in need of saves. May got paid by Oakland's standards, which should keep him in contention until he is ultimately traded. He is more of a speculative add in deeper leagues.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen is always a tough one to figure out as they are not afraid to get many options involved. They have yet to pick up a save but Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam remain the favorites to get the bulk of opportunities. I have a slight lean with Fairbanks, but both are more than capable of securing the gig. Given the team and the uncertainty, neither is worth investing a ton into off the waiver wire until we get more clarity.

The Detroit Tigers' lone save of the season went to Garrett Hill, who closed it out in extra innings. However, we have already seen him struggle in his first outing. That came after closer Alex Lange blew his first save chance against the Astros. He is still the leading candidate to pick up saves, but this is a dicey bullpen. Lange is worth rostering, but do not spend a bunch of FAAB on him as we do not know how long his leash is just yet. This is a situation that could quickly become a committee. Hill is not worth adding as of yet.

The Seattle Mariners have used a committee approach for the last couple of years and 2023 may not be any different. They have multiple options with Andres Munoz, Paul Sewald, and Diego Castillo. Munoz picked up the lone save so far for the Mariners and he would be the top option in this bullpen. However, Sewald never seems to fully go away, and even if he is on the lesser side of a committee, he should see some save chances. Munoz should be rostered everywhere, while Sewald is worthy of holding onto in deeper Roto formats. Castillo is purely for those in need of saves in deeper formats -- such as AL-only leagues.

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios

Rafael Montero can give you strikeouts, as evident by his 33 percent rate. He limits damage as his 1.00 WHIP, 3.00 ERA, and 1.75 xFIP all show. He has been an effective reliever for the Astros for a couple of years now and 2023 should be no different. But the best part about rostering Montero is he can give you the occasional save if and when Ryan Pressly is unavailable.

Also, if Pressly were to miss time, Montero would be next in line for saves on a team that should get plenty of opportunities. Roster him if you have the spot. Hector Neris also picked up a save for the Astros. While he would be the third option here, he is worth rostering in 14-team leagues or deeper.

Tim Herrin will likely not get save chances anytime soon. Due to that, I would recommend taking a shot on a different pitcher -- someone in the mix for saves on a team still figuring out their late-inning situation. However, Herrin has been dominant in his limited sample size. He’s posted a 75 percent strikeout rate with a 0.43 WHIP and a -1.87 xFIP. He’s more of a deeper league option, but he has been elite to start the season.

Adbert Alzolay has not allowed a run in his limited sample size. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a base runner and has struck out 43 percent of the batters he faced. Again, we are dealing with an extremely small sample size and I would advise using any free bench spots on a pitcher who has a shot at saves. Alzolay would likely need those ahead of him to struggle, but the Cubs' late-inning role is certainly up for grabs.

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.

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