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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of running backs to assess their situations for fantasy football. Should we buy into the rising ADP of these running backs for 2023?
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs has our strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days that are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we check to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Risers
Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs
McKinnon's ADP surge is, by far, the largest among all skill-position players two weeks into May and starting to count from May 1 on. It's been nearly a full three-round bump, and it all started with early-month reports coming from Ian Rapoport informing on Tuesday, May 2, that "Jerick McKinnon is expected to re-sign with the Chiefs" that same day. The signing was made official later that day.
McKinnon, back in KC, is expected to be the RB1/RB2 of the Chiefs with his main competitor in Isiah Pacheco after Kansas City pretty much moved on from once-hyped Clyde Edwards-Helaire and made him the RB3 in the backfield depth chart.
It's just incredible how far the CEH fall has gone, but it's very real and it doesn't look like it will ever be fixed, at least not in Kansas City. Until he finds another place to play football when his rookie deal is over, he won't be able to develop into the player we all expected he'd turn into.
McKinnon played in all 17 games last season and finished as the top-20 rusher in PPR formats while putting up 11.5 FPPG to go with the third-highest FP/Opp with 1.37 fantasy points every target/carry he got. Although McKinnon got the bulk of his fantasy production from Week 14 on, that's highly encouraging going forward as his final third of the season let KC and fantasy GMs the world over know about how capable this man is at leading a backfield.
The surge is real and it is here to stay, so don't hesitate to draft JMK at his price and even if it keeps going up for a while.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
The concerns and question marks floating about Joe Mixon's head and short-term future had to do with a pending criminal charge that might force him to miss time and in the worst-case scenario, getting released by the Bengals. Cincy did what they should and drafted rookie Chase Brown in April with a fifth-round pick to cover their backs, but that's the only thing the team has done when it comes to moves that might impact Mixon's upside.
Head Coach Zac Taylor told reporters after the draft that Cincy is still convinced Mixon's future is "here with the team," which is reasonable also knowing that RB2 Samaje Perine left the organization this offseason to sign with the Denver Broncos, leaving a hole to be filled by rookie Chase Brown.
While there has not been any good/bad/fresh news about Mixon's case and future, the ADP rise makes sense out of context if only because the Bengals nearly faded all chances at bolstering their backfield after losing Perine. Yes, Brown has arrived via the draft, but it's not that Cincinnati will be losing their collective head in order to force-feed him touches and play him after spending a mid-to-low-value pick on him.
Mixon is coming off back-to-back RB1-level seasons and had it not been for a six-game year in 2020, he would have finished inside the top-13 rushers in all last five campaigns (PPR formats). His current ADP is about to break the 50th-OVR barrier but that's more than twice as low as it's been through his career.
That's correct, even in the summer before he debuted (2017), Mixon's ADP has never been cheaper than a 46th-OVR pick, so for now (and until it gets into second-round territory) you're safe investing such a pick in him. If we hear any news about Mixon avoiding any legal trouble and can confirm that he's good to go without any off-field issues pending, then this man is well worth a mid-second-round pick without question, so there is still room for you to draft him comfortably even if the price keeps rising.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The RB1 of the Bucs last year, Leonard Fournette, entered the offseason as a free agent after getting released... and is still sitting on the FA-market shelves with no suitors having popped up to date. That means that Tampa Bay is looking at a full season of Rachaad White as their new and freshest RB1 come September.
Only the addition of Chase Edmonds could bring some trouble to White's upside, but it's not like Edmonds was better than White at all last year and before.
Edmonds topped 10 PPR points in four games last season splitting time between Denver and Miami. He finished the season with 74.2 PPR points through 13 games by way of racking up 402 scrimmage yards with 2 TDs rushing and one receiving.
White closed last season with 139.1 PPR points through 17 games by way of getting a total of 771 yards from scrimmage while scoring a couple of receiving TDs and one rushing touchdown. He got targeted 58 times catching 50 of those looks for a gaudy 86.2% catch rate through the season.
On top of everything, HC Todd Bowles was quoted earlier this offseason saying that White is expected to be a "complete three-down back," although those comments came before the addition of Edmonds. Even then, though, the ADP rise is understandable and not too large considering the upside.
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