NBA DFS Prop Picks for 2/1/23 - Monkey Knife Fight

There will be a total of 53 NBA games over the next week with tonight’s 9-game slate taking up a 16% chunk of those games. Joel Embiid, Damian Lillard versus Ja Morant, and Kyrie Irving without Kevin Durant taking on the Celtics are just three storylines to follow.

Add in games like Warriors – Timberwolves and Thunder – Houston and there are sure to be interesting developments. The night ends with two struggling teams with equal chances to win, the Suns holding just a slight -1.5 edge over the Hawks. Despite Cam Johnson being back and Deandre Ayton playing decently, it’s hard to like them over a healthy Hawks team that will put up a ton of points whereas the Suns are forced to rely on Mikal Bridges.

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ORL @ PHI

James Harden (PHI) MORE 9.5 Asts ‒ Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 10.5 Rebs – Paolo Banchero (ORL) MORE 20.5 Points

Scroll down to find a diamond where it doesn’t belong. Joel Embiid is on an absolute tear right now so the points over still seems surprisingly reachable even after losing and failing to reach that threshold when these teams faced Monday. Instead, if we target his rebounds and James Harden’s assists, we need the 76ers offense to function just slightly better than they did Monday.

After posting 29-points on 22-shots a few days ago, Paolo Banchero couldn’t be stopped. He went on to score 29-points in a win and Philadelphia looked somewhat dead-in-the-water when it came to defending him. Now that they know what’s coming, not only will it not matter to Banchero’s production, but Philadelphia’s offense knows they simply need to be more efficient.

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POR @ MEM

Damian Lillard (POR) MORE 32.5 Points – Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 28.5 Points

Damian Lillard is averaging 44-points over his last three games, 36-points over the last two weeks. There isn’t much more you can say other than right now, there isn’t a single player playing better basketball on a nightly basis. Defensively, maybe not so much, but when it comes to keeping his team in games and, in some cases, outright winning those games, Lillard is playing in a league alone.

Ja Morant naturally generates energy whenever he plays, so the pairing with Lillard here pretty much paves the way for this to be the game to watch. This isn’t to underestimate everyone outside of Lillard and Morant, but more times than not, the game will be nine people standing around with Lillard or Morant scoring an unassisted basket.

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GSW @ MIN

Stephen Curry (GSW) MORE 28.5 Points – Anthony Edwards (MIN) MORE 28.5 Points

Stephen Curry is lined up to get 30-points tonight and this point projected should bounce up before tip-off. He’s carried the offense the last three games and the Warriors aren’t going to change everything now that he’s found a groove. He’s prone to bad nights, but against the Timberwolves, there just aren’t many obstacles standing in his way and Curry will just use those obstacles as launch pads anyway.

Now where Curry will metaphorically benefit from those obstacles, Anthony Edwards is more likely to literally use the Warriors players that get in his way as actual launch pads. Over his last six games, Edwards has scored over 30-points in five and his control of the offense is arguably unlimited. He touches the ball on pretty much every possession and his teammates always know where he is on the court. His usage is above 30% consistently for a reason.

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OKC @ HOU

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) MORE 31.5 Points – Alperen Sengun (TOR) MORE 20.5 Points

This specific wager, you can go multiple directions on. The Rockets are without their best backcourt player but Alperen Sengun is a very, very, underrated playmaking big. Betting on his points is somewhat safe, but the target should be assists and rebounds. This will be the first time in a while that Sengun will have complete control of the offense and he’s more likely to put up a modest triple-double than lead the scoring column.

Now Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the scoring column, but don’t feel obligated to be forced into betting on his points. Josh Giddey does have decent sway in the offense and he manages to pull down rebounds and other peripheral stats fairly easily. There isn’t really a wrong way to bet here as long as you are betting on one of the three big names for this game, Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey and Sengun.

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