RADIO
Happy Friday and Happy Weekend, RotoBallers! It's been a turbulent week in the NFL community, to say the least after the MNF game between the Bills and Bengals was called after the traumatic injury to Bills safety Damar Hamlin. The good news is while Hamlin isn't out of the woods yet, he is awake and recovering at the hospital and even Facetimed with his teammates today. While many of us have been arguing about the fairest way to settle Week 17 in our fantasy leagues as well as AFC playoff seeding, I hope we can all remember the bigger picture at stake.
The hardest challenge for Week 18 when it comes to fantasy has always been not knowing which teams will play their starters and which ones will not. We are also at a point where eliminated teams may not be playing to win and may rest some of their veterans in favor of younger players they want to get a look at. The best compass for Week 18 is the Las Vegas sportsbooks as well as knowing which players are close to receiving production incentives in their contracts. The good news for this game is it has serious playoff implications on both sides and neither team will be resting their starters.
Here you will be provided with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. Patriots NFL DFS showdown slate on January 8th. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LuckIsMadeFF and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with an NFL DFS analyst at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $18,300 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,029 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 34.9% (second), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -13.7% (third), per Football Outsiders.
While the Bills players were undoubtedly and understandably shaken after what took place on MNF, Damar Hamlin is awake and Facetimed with his teammates on Friday. This could be the rallying cry that the Bills needed knowing that one of their teammates is going to be alright. Allen has been awesome this season as the QB3 at 25.8 fantasy points per game. Allen along with Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes has been in a league of their own. Given the importance of this game, the Bills will have all hands on deck and Allen should have no problem having a solid game for fantasy. The Patriots' defense isn't anywhere as intimidating as it used to be.
Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, $15,000 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 986 rushing yards, 4.8 YPC average, 64 receptions for 393 yards, 6 total TDs
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -9.4% (25th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -20.1% (third), per Football Outsiders.
This isn't the greatest of matchups for Stevenson, but he's by far the best weapon on the Patriots' offense. Since Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski departed, New England's offense has been anything but what we've been accustomed used to. Mac Jones has had a rough sophomore slump at quarterback and Belichick seems to be running a confusing offensive system with Joe Judge and Matt Patricia as co-offensive coordinators. While Stevenson hasn't been great of late, the Patriots', playoff hopes rest on his shoulders.
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DFS Flex Plays
Stefon Diggs - WR, $11,400 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 144 targets, 101 receptions, 1,325 receiving yards, and ten touchdowns.
While the Patriots have a history of taking away what a team does best on offense, Diggs has been better in 2022 than he was in 2021 despite being a year older. On a PPG basis in half-PPR formats, Diggs is the WR6 of the fantasy season averaging 16.2 fantasy points per game. The Bills torched the New England defense in the playoffs last year by a score of 47-17. Diggs had 3 catches for 60 yards in the game, but the Pats simply couldn't stop Allen. If you want to stack Diggs with Allen this week I don't see how anyone could have a problem with it.
Gabriel Davis - WR, $7,400 (DK), $12,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 83 targets, 45 receptions, 797 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns.
On the other side of the field looms Gabe Davis. While he might not have had the breakout season many in the fantasy community were hoping for, he has about as high of a ceiling as any WR out there in DFS. He has just 3 performances inside the Top 12 for fantasy and has been inconsistent this season, but if you are hoping to catch lightning in a bottle for one game you can do it with Davis. The Pats tend to try and take away what you do best (Diggs) and this could potentially open things up for Davis as the Bills need to win this game and will need to keep throwing to do so.
DFS Value Plays
Dawson Knox - TE, $4,200 (DK), $5,700 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 63 targets, 46 receptions, 504 receiving yards, and five touchdowns.
Last year in their 47-17 Wildcard win over the Patriots, Knox had a monster game with 5 catches for 89 yards and 2 TDs. He is an important part of the offense even though Knox has seen a little bit of TD regression this year. The Patriots' defense isn't as potent as it once was and so far is in the middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season. Knox has had a TD in three straight games and there is a decent chance he can find the endzone in this one too.
Devin Singletary - WR, $5,800 (DK), $6,300 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 790 rushing yards, 4.6 YPC average, 37 receptions for 277 yards, and 6 total TDs.
Ken Dorsey's offense can be a difficult one to decipher on running backs as the Bills tend to ride the hot hand and throw the ball a ton on top of Josh Allen taking off and running himself. Nonetheless, Singletary has provided well enough fantasy production this season and is coming off an impressive Week 16 where he rushed 12 times for 106 yards and a TD on top of catching 2 passes for 19 yards against the Bears. With how quickly the Bills can score there should be plenty of chances for Singletary in this one.
Right now it is difficult to trust any of the Patriots' skill players with much certainty and you would be better off sticking with Bills players. Enjoy your weekend and good luck to everyone!
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