RADIO
It's the last week of the regular season everybody! Get that last win to secure your playoff spot! Time to finish strong and officially cut the dead weight. It’s important to pay attention to what your team’s circumstances are. You need to recognize what is most important, Week 14 or Week 15. That all depends on your standings, but it’s important and it should impact your decisions this week on the waiver wire.
This is the first week of the season where I did not have a single quarterback to cut and that’s a credit to everyone playing in Yahoo! leagues. For the first time all season, there isn’t a quarterback rostered in more than 60% of leagues that I’d cut. Aaron Rodgers at 76% certainly could be deserving on the basis that he could sit the final few weeks of the season, but he made The Cut List last week, so we’ll give the poor old sap a break this week. It’s been a rough season for him.
Let’s look at some of the players you can safely send to the waiver wire for Week 14. We can't touch on every cuttable player, especially for every league size, but we'll cover some of the most cuttable players entering Week 14. As always if you have any specific questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message.
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Running Backs to Cut for Week 14?
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams – 56% Rostered
Fantasy managers should have no interest in playing this guessing game with head coach Sean McVay. Last week, Kyren Williams handled the majority of the snaps and running back touches. Everyone anointed him as the running back to add from the Rams. Fast forward one week later and it was Cam Akers who handled the majority of the snaps and running back touches. Nope, I’m sorry McVay, I’m not interested. I’m done. I am out.
In Week 12, Kyren Williams handled 38 snaps to Akers’ 16. He also received 11 carries to Akers’ six. He ran 21 routes compared to the zero Akers ran. Naturally, Williams was a waiver wire add for a lot of teams last week. In Week 13, for what seemed to be no reason, everything switched. Akers played 46 of the team’s 64 snaps. He had 17 of the 20 carries and ran 19 routes to Williams’ 11. Naturally, Akers will be the waiver wire add for a lot of teams.
For the most part, I am out. If I had to pick one, obviously give me Akers because of what happened most recently. This is still a backfield to be avoided. Even if we knew Akers was going to be the guy, right? Or Williams, it doesn’t matter. Even if we knew that one of them was going to be the guy, they’d be a low-level RB3 player because the offensive line and entire offense are brutal. However, now we need to guess who the guy is even going to be. And if we guess wrong, that running back hardly touches the ball? No, thanks. I’m out.
James Robinson, New York Jets – 51% Rostered
One week after being a healthy inactive, some fantasy managers held onto hope that James Robinson had another chance at life after Michael Carter sprained his ankle in the Jets’ Week 12 game, which led to him being inactive in Week 13. Surely, this meant James Robinson was back on the fantasy radar, right?
Yeah, that’s a big ol’ nope! The healthy inactive status in Week 12 should’ve been all we needed to know to send his rostership percentage numbers plummeting, but they’ve held above 50% and there’s no reason for it. Prior to his Week 12 inactive game, he had snap shares of 22%, 40%, and 22%. In two of those games, he was held to fewer than 20 scrimmage yards. His yards per carry averages in those three appearances were 3.4, 3.7, and 1.4 yards per carry. Folks, those are some really bad numbers.
Jets RBs with Michael Carter (ankle) out yesterday:
* Zonovan Knight 47 snaps, 25 routes, 20 opportunities
* Ty Johnson 28 snaps, 26 routes, 8 opportunities
* James Robinson 9 snaps, 2 routes, 4 opportunities— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 5, 2022
In Week 13, with Carter inactive, Robinson was active for game day. He played nine snaps. He was given four carries and finished with 10 yards. That’s all she wrote, ladies and gentlemen. With Carter likely returning in Week 14, Robinson will most likely, once again, be a healthy inactive for next week’s game. It’s time to let go.
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 14?
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals – 79% Rostered
I’m done with Tyler Boyd. In Week 1, Tee Higgins left the game early and Boyd finished with 11.3 half-PPR points, largely due to the fact that he caught a touchdown. He finished with just 33 yards. Higgins would leave early again in Week 3, which helped Boyd have an even bigger week, this time finishing with 18.5 half-PPR points on four receptions, 105 yards, and one touchdown. In Week 8, with Ja’Marr Chase out and against the lowly Browns, Boyd once again found the end zone and finished with just 11.3 half-PPR points on just 38 yards.
He’s had four double-digit games this season. Three have come with Higgins or Chase either completely out of the game or forced to leave the contest early. The other one came in Week 7 against the Falcons when he finished with eight receptions, 155 yards, and one touchdown. He totaled 25.5 half-PPR points.
So, what’s the trend? Not only have 75% of his double-digit games with either Chase or Higgins out or limited, but 100% of them were in weeks where he scored a touchdown. He does not have a single week with 10 half-PPR points where he did not find the end zone. Not one.
In the remaining eight games, Boyd has three games with fewer than five half-PPR points. In the four games that Chase missed from Weeks 8-12 (Week 10 bye), he averaged just 6.5 half-PPR points. That was despite getting matchups against the Steelers and Titans, who allow the most and second-most points to opposing wide receivers.
In deeper leagues, I get having to hold onto Boyd, but in 10 or 12-team leagues, you’re absolutely not starting Boyd unless Chase or Higgins miss time. Now that we’re heading into Week 14, I don’t see any value in hanging onto a receiver handcuff.
Tight Ends to Cut in Week 14?
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills – 80% Rostered
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams – 77% Rostered
I’m going to group these two guys together. Look, the tight end position is dreadful. It’s cold and it’s dark and it’s just sad. Despite this, it’s amazing that these two players are so heavily rostered. For as bad as the tight end position, I’d rather have five other tight ends who are rostered in fewer leagues than both of them. Don’t believe me?
Cole Kmet. David Njoku/Harrison Bryant, whichever one is healthy for the Browns. Darren Waller/Foster Moreau, whichever one is healthy for the Raiders. Evan Engram. Greg Dulcich. Those are the five for sure tight ends I’d rather have. I’d definitely rather have Tyler Conklin and Daniel Bellinger over Tyler Higbee. I’ll take Knox over Conklin, but Bellinger is very interesting now that he’s healthy and the Giants are without any receivers. I’d probably rather roll the dice on Bellinger over Knox.
Knox has seven out of 11 games this season with four or fewer targets. He has just two games with more than 45 yards and he’s been held under 25 yards five times. He has just two touchdowns on the season and amazingly, he only managed to score double-digits in one of those two games. He has five games with fewer than five half-PPR points and three contests with fewer than three. Yuck. Yuck. Yuck.
Let’s move on to Tyler Higbee. In his last seven games, he has two goose eggs. He has three games with fewer than three half-PPR points. He has five games with two or fewer receptions and 15 or fewer receiving yards. Since his amazing five-game stretch to start the season, which now seems like a lifetime ago, Higbee is averaging 3.4 half-PPR PPG.
On the Hot Seat
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills – 93% Rostered
It was just one game. We’re going to do our best not to overreact to one game. However, we need to acknowledge just how scary that one game was for Devin Singletary’s future fantasy prospects.
He’s been above a 72% snap share every game since Week 5. He played just 44% of the snaps in Week 13. Okay, that is alarming and it’s not like Singletary is this amazing talent who can make do on limited touches. Not counting Week 13, he had averaged just 10.3 half-PPR points in Weeks 1-12, so he’s needed every bit of those snaps just to stay in that RB3 conversation. His 10.3 average through the first 12 weeks ranked 29th among running backs with at least seven games played.
James Cook & Devin Singletary both finished with over 11 HPPR points, but Cook's usage value was significantly higher this week
Week 13 RB Expected Fantasy Points (xFP):
▫️ Cook: 16.2
▫️ Singletary: 9.6For the first time this season, Cook finished as an RB1 in xFP/usage👇 pic.twitter.com/xvHFcsSMom
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 5, 2022
Prior to Week 13, James Cook had averaged 4.2 rush attempts and 0.75 receptions per game. Needless to say, Singletary had a stranglehold on this backfield in terms of snaps and touches. We’ve already touched on the change in snap share, but just as bad was the change in touches. Cook received more carries (14-13), ran more routes (16-11), earned more targets (6-2), and finished with more receptions (6-0). Cook racked up 105 total yards to Singletary’s 51.
If he was just RB29 on a PPG basis when he wasn’t sharing at all, what in the world is he going to be with Cook stealing 50% of the work? What if the snap and touch distribution favors Cook even more? Fantasy managers counting on Singletary are on some very, very thin ice.
Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers – 88% Rostered
Will Allen Lazard ever score again? I’m sure that’s what most of his fantasy managers are wondering right now after watching Christian Watson score eight touchdowns in the past four games. Will Lazard ever score again? I mean, probably, but ever since Watson’s become a thing, Lazard almost immediately stopped being a thing and that’s probably not a coincidence.
Despite playing 92% or more of the team’s snaps every game since Week 10, he has just 24 total targets. Now, six targets per game don't sound terrible, but 11 of those 24 came against the Titans, who just so happen to be one of the most pass-funnel defenses in the NFL. What that really means though is that in 75% of Lazard’s games since Watson became a thing, Lazard has had just 13 targets total or just 4.33 per game.
Despite having 75 targets on the season in 11 games, Lazard has been held to under 60 yards receiving in seven of them. He has five games with double-digit points and only one of them occurred without him finding the end zone.
Since Watson started playing a full-time role, Lazard has averaged just 6.7 half-PPR points per game. Prior to Watson’s arrival, he’s been a WR3 who needed a touchdown to get into WR2 territory. Since Watson entered the lineup, Lazard has been a WR4. He’s not a drop yet, but he’s definitely trending in the wrong direction.
Hold On
Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins – 87% Rostered
News flash… the 49ers are really, really good at defense. Like, really good. They’ve given up the fewest points to running backs this season at just 12.9. To make matters worse, the Dolphins were also without their starting left and right tackle. Fantasy managers should be taking what happened on Sunday with an enormous grain of salt. For me, I’m pretty much pretending it didn’t even happen, but not because I’m in denial, because it was exactly what I expected to happen.
Now, I’ll admit, the utilization between Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson was not ideal. Mostert played 28 snaps and Wilson handled 17. Mostert also received seven carries to Wilson’s one. Not great, Bob! However, this was an abnormal game plan for the Dolphins. While they generally lean more on their passing game, the 33 attempts to just eight rush attempts, was significantly outside the percentage splits they typically operate at.
I will concede that the split between Mostert and Wilson this past week lowered Wilson’s rest-of-season outlook. Prior to Week 13, Wilson had been dominating the snaps and touches and looked like a solid mid-to-backend RB2. With Mostert back in the fold, both backs are likely best treated as RB3s moving forward. That absolutely means Wilson needs to stay on fantasy rosters.
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