NFL Betting Picks for Week 7 - Best Bets, Expert Odds and Predictions

October 21, 2022

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season. His free picks target the spread and an under.

To the red we go following back-to-back losing weeks. Tampa Bay and Green Bay both totally crapped the bed, no other way around it. Then Seattle came in and beat Arizona in an incredibly boring 19-9 game, but easily covering. This has been one of the weirdest NFL seasons in recent memory. Scoring is down and injuries are through the roof which are two things we as bettors and fantasy managers do not like hearing, but we must push forward.

I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.

• 2022 Record: 8-9, -1.78 units
• Spread: 4-2, +1.6 units
• Total/Team Total: 3-6, -3.56 units
• Moneyline: 1-1, +0.18 units
• Props: 0-0

Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Week 7 NFL Betting Picks - Spread

New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)

Sunday 10/23, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 42.5

At 4-1, the Giants have the whole league shocked. They have a lot of injuries and aren't playing great football, but coaching and some proper bounces have propelled them. Three of their four wins have come by five or fewer points. As an offense, they average just 5.1 yards per play, which is heavily aided by Saquon Barkley's strong start. Overall, this unit isn't exactly clicking right now, just making the plays at the right time.

On a three-game losing streak, the Jaguars are a bit of a mess right now. They were in a fight last week with Indianapolis but ultimately their defense played uncharacteristically poorly and let the Colts throw for almost 400 yards. However, they're ranked 10th by DVOA and allow just 5.2 ypp. Offensively, things are a bit stagnant, but Trevor Lawrence has weapons to utilize, and while the last few games haven't been fruitful, facing this Giants defense off an upset win over Green Bay is a great spot for the Jags.

Coming in as three-point underdogs with a 4-1 record, Vegas is begging you to take the G-men here off their win over Green Bay. Coming off a bad loss with a lot to prove at home, the Jaguars' defense will return and the offense will be able to slide past the leaky New York defense and cover.

Pick: Jacksonville -3 (-110, FanDuel) Bet to win 1 Unit

Week 7 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (-7)

Sunday 10/23, 8:20 PM EST | O/U: 44.5

Pittsburgh pulled out a win by the skin of their teeth in Week 6. However, I won't give them too much credit as it was clear something was very off with Tom Brady and company. Kenny Pickett left with a concussion and Mitch Trubisky came in and did enough to carry them to victory (though they had just 270 yards of offense). They were missing four starters in the secondary, but hopefully, at least a few of them will return in Week 7, along with Pickett. It's still tough to like where this team is at currently.

Miami will get back Tua Tagovailoa in Week 7 and that couldn't come at a better time, following three straight losses. Although, it will be interesting to see how they use him upon return. Jaylen Waddle is a little banged up but should play and Tyreek Hill continues to put up video game numbers regardless of who throws to him. Defensively, Miami can't stop the pass to save their life, but possess a Top 10 run defense by DVOA. Where they really lack is takeaways, averaging less than one per game and all four takeaways have come in two games.

To be honest with you, I don't understand how this listed total is so high. It's already jumped 1.5 points with the announcement that Tua is playing. However, I'm not buying it. Miami might have the better weapons, but not much to show for it. Pittsburgh's offense is in disarray while they're hopefully getting some pieces back on defense. Then if you're the type that likes to follow trends, it's almost impossible to not point out the primetime unders are HOT this season, including SNF games, which have averaged just 36.5 pts so far.

Pick: Under 44.5 (-104, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

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