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As we all know the tight end pool is shallow. There are the top 10 and then it is a free for all.
This is especially true when you are drafting. If you are not lucky enough to get the one of the top 10 projected tight ends (especially in PPR leagues) what are you going to do? Do you wait it out or do you reach?
Examining the tight end ADP in PPR versus standard leagues attempting to filter out the tight end booms from the tight end busts. The tight end you are going to overvalue versus the tight end who is undervalued and may surprise you.
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Tight End Rankings and Tiers for 2022 Fantasy Football
There is generally a consensus on the top ten tight ends. They are in different tiers, but whether you are playing standard or PPR the rankings generally remain the same. Here are the top 10 tight ends in both PPR and standard:
TIER 1
TIER 2
TIER 3
TIER 4
There is some movement within the tiers. Kittle can be considered a Tier 1 if he stays healthy. It remains to be seen if Schultz/Knox were one-year wonders. Pitts has tremendous upside but there is that concern with his surrounding offense. Whether you are playing in a points-per-reception league or standard league these are your top 10 tight ends.
Tight Ends Rankings Movement for 2022 Fantasy Football
After the top 10, it then gets interesting and depends on whether you are playing in a PPR format or standard. There are tight ends that are more valuable in PPR than standard and some whose value is in standard. This depends on if the tight end is in an offense that has limited options in the pass-catching department. Sometimes they are tight ends that are the primary red zone targets.
For this season that designation is going to get a little murky. That’s because of the incredible movement of players and coaches during the preseason. For example:
Last season Pat Freiermuth was more valuable in PPR than in standard leagues. In standard leagues, last season Freiermuth averaged 5.7 fantasy points per game. In PPR formats he averaged 9.7 fantasy points per game.
This was because 1) his rapport with then quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and 2) injury to Eric Ebron placed him as the tight end option in Pittsburgh.
After Ebron’s injury in Week 6, Freiermuth was targeted no less than seven times in Weeks 8-11, and Weeks 12-18, except for two games that he was not targeted less than four times. That was with a quarterback who only averaged 6.2 yards per attempt. The short pass was right in Freiermuth's wheelhouse.
Hunter Henry is another example. There was a concern when the New England Patriots added both Henry and Jonnu Smith, but it turned out Smith was primarily the blocking tight end and Henry was the receiving tight end.
In standard leagues, Henry finished as TE7 averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game. In PPR he was TE10 at the end of the season, but Henry averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game.
Remember ADP is just that: average draft position. The tight end value will depend on how your tight end is used in the offense and the quarterback’s tendencies.
Overvalued Tight End for 2022 Fantasy Football Drafts
On that note remember we base value on what we witnessed last season. For that reason, there are some tight ends that are being overvalued. Being overvalued isn’t the same as being a bust. Overvaluing a prospect just means he is being drafted higher than his current status warrants. Freiermuth is currently going as TE11. He is going ahead of Henry, Cole Kmet, and Albert Okwuegbunam.
Last season Freiermuth was fourth in targets (79), second in receiving touchdowns (7), and third in receiving yards (497). His average depth of target was 5.3 yards, and he was ranked 17th among tight ends with 4.9 average targets per game.
The Steelers were second in passing plays (63.44%) and fourth in pass attempts per game (39.3). The Steelers will start this season with Mitchell Trubisky under center. Trubisky highest passing attempts per game came in 2019. He had 516 passing attempts averaging 34.4 passing attempts per game.
It is unlikely that the Steelers will be throwing the ball at such a high clip with either Trubisky or Kenny Pickett under center. And when they do pass there are Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and George Pickens who will be competing for targets.
If Freiermuth can position himself as the main target in the red zone, he could provide value. Last season he had 20 red zone targets (1st). That’s his floor this season for meeting his draft capital.
Tight End Bust for 2022 Fantasy Football Drafts
Gesicki is a hybrid slot receiver playing the tight end position. He is currently going as TE14 in both standard and PPR formats. That is going to burn you if you draft him there.
First, there is a new coach and a new system. This system does not involve the tight end as a primary receiver. Mike McDaniel comes from the San Francisco 49ers and the George Kittle mode of tight ends. In this system, tight ends are valued for their blocking ability. This is not Gesicki’s strength as a tight end.
Last season Gesicki lined up in the slot or wide on 94% of his snaps. He was third in route runs (485) first in slot snaps (412) and eighth in receiving yards (780). He was also 21st in yards after catch (222). Kittle was 24th in slot snaps (118) and 19th in route runs (346). But he finished with 910 yards because he accumulated 441 yards after catch (2nd).
Kittle finished as TE4 while Gesicki finished as TE8. This system does not fit Gesicki’s strengths.
Then there is the acquisition of Tyreek Hill. Last season (albeit in Kansas City) Hill commanded a 25.1% target share. Now sharing space with Jaylen Waddle (24.8% target share) there is little space for a hybrid tight end who should be blocking.
Gesicki is the odd man out in this run-heavy offense. It is likely that he will see less time on the field (because of his lackluster blocking skills) which will severely diminish his fantasy value making his current draft capital a bust.
Undervalued Tight End for 2022 Fantasy Football Drafts
Allen Robinson is gone. Matt Nagy is gone. There is a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and Justin Fields is your quarterback. This is all good news for Kmet truthers.
Last season Kmet finished TE20 in PPR and TE22 in standard leagues. He had 93 targets (8th), 17.7% target share (11th), and 612 receiving yards (12th). The problem was he had zero touchdowns. It didn’t help that last year’s Bears offense was 29th in passing touchdowns (16) averaging 0.9 a game.
In Nagy’s offense Fields only attempted 31 passes in the red zone. He only threw five passes for touchdowns.
Kmet is set for a positive touchdown regression. First, there are 215 targets that need to be gobbled up. The good news is Kmet, Darnell Mooney and David Montgomery appear to be the best recipients. Second, new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is playing to Fields strengths. Having Fields use his athleticism but more importantly adding more (some…any) bootlegs and pocket rollouts.
Kmet is currently going as TE13 in PPR and TE15 in standard leagues. If Fields is allowed to be Fields positive touchdown regression is in store for Kmet. Kmet’s finishes last season are his floor this season. Throw in a few touchdowns and his ceiling is top-13.
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