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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/23/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, July 23, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 45-52-2, -17.58 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 15-19-1, -4.83 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Phillies
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: PHI -162
CHC: Marcus Stroman | PHI: Zack Wheeler
After going 2-1 yesterday, we have two more NRFIs on the slate today. I'm gonna "run it back" on the Phillies/Cubs NRFI today, as we got burnt yesterday with a Kyle Schwarber leadoff home run in the bottom of the first. What was more frustrating though was the Cubs then scoring 15 straight with Philadelphia being held off the board after that until the bottom of the ninth. Nevertheless, I'll be backing Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.69 ERA) in the opening frame. Stroman has kept opponents off the scoreboard in five of six starts on the road, and nine of 11 starts overall. Stroman made four starts against Philadelphia as a member of the Mets last season and kept the Phillies off the board in the first in all four starts.
On the other hand, I'll be backing Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (8-5, 2.89 ERA). While Wheeler isn't having quite the same success as he did during his Cy Young nominated 2021 campaign, he's certainly been pitching well. He's held opponents scoreless in eight of nine starts at Citizens Bank Park, and in 15 of 17 starts overall. He faced the Cubs just once over the last two seasons, an 8-3 Cubs victory in July of 2021. While he did allow three runs in the first inning of that start, the Cubs have since had a "fire sale" of their studs (Bryant, Baez, Rizzo) and with another one incoming, I have no issues backing him in the first inning today.
The numbers haven't changed much since yesterday, as the Cubs have been held scoreless in the first inning in 62% of games, with an 8% jump to 70% when they're on the road. On the other hand, the Phillies have been held scoreless in the opening frame at a 65.2% clip at Citizens Bank Park, and at a 74.2% clip overall. Both teams have tallied a run in the first in just two of their last ten games, giving the NRFI implied odds of 59.39% according to my model. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the under at -113 (53.05%), so we'll take the value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-113) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +146
MIN: Joe Ryan | DET: Michael Pineda
I'll jump out to Detroit as the Twins and Tigers open up a short series, with both teams having off yesterday. The Twins will send young ace Joe Ryan (6-3, 2.99 ERA) to the mound. The 26-year-old has been very good in the first inning, holding opponents off the scoreboard in 10 of his 14 starts. He's actually better in the first on the road this season, tossing a shutout opening frame in five of six starts away from Target Field. He kept the Tigers from scoring in the first inning in his lone start against them this season, a 5-0 Twins victory on April 27th.
He'll take on veteran Michael Pineda (2-5, 5.22 ERA), who's making his ninth start on the season. While his record and ERA leave a lot to be desired, there's only one word to describe Pineda in the first inning this season: perfect. He's held opponents off the board in the opening frame in each of his starts, with six of them coming at Comerica. He was on the other side of that 5-0 Twins victory back on April 27th, and while he did allow four earned runs, none of them came in the first.
The Twins have been relatively solid in regards to scoring in the first inning, being shut out in just 64.4% of first innings on the road as well as 63.8% of first innings overall. It's worth noting that they've been on a bit of a heater lately, scoring in five of their last ten opening frames. However, with Pineda's perfect track record this year I feel more comfortable backing him in this spot. Conversely, the Tigers have been held scoreless in 69.6% of their opening frames at home as well as 78.7% of games overall, including seven of their last ten. FanDuel is giving us the under at -125 (54.55%), while my model gives the under a 60.01% chance of hitting.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-125) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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