RADIO
Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of running backs to assess their situations for fantasy football.
Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from mid-May to mid-June using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three running back risers.
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Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Risers
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
The Bills will enter the 2022 season with three very capable rushers in their backfield. That doesn't mean all of them will feature heavily, nor does it mean that one will be blasted into oblivion. There will most probably be a touch share among all three with the depth chart currently (consensus opinion) listing Devin Singletary > James Cook > Zack Moss in the pecking order. That's one of the reasons Cook's ADP has risen a lot of late, as the rookie is looking stronger by the day when it comes to usurping the RB2 role from Moss.
None of Singletary or Moss have ever had a top-16 season in fantasy football, with the former topping at RB18 last year with 197.8 PPR points (11.6 FPPG) and the latter at RB51 last season with 105.2 PPR points (8.1 FPPG). The tandem was good enough for a combined 19.7 FPPG, but that's only good for the Bills and not for a fantasy GM working with those pieces separately. The hype surrounding Cook is hella real, and even PFF projects him to be the highest-scoring RB of the Bills in 2022. That said, Josh Allen is projected to more carries than any of the three rushers, and the only trait to exploit from Cook is his pass-catching prowess. Even then, an ADP of around 100th for a projected 160th OVR or RB38 finish (per PFF) is just too rich for my blood and definitely not a good move thinking about the potential Return On Investment.
Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
Nobody is going to pass on Jonathan Taylor to draft Nyheim Hines. Obviously. But watch out for Hines as a legit under-the-radar producer next year even on a diminished/obscured role next to a surefire RB1 such as Taylor. The reigning fantasy RB champ had a ridiculous campaign last season in which he reached 373.1 PPR points in the full 17 games he played. He was incredible at rushing, and he also was sublime at catching passes. Even if he regresses in 2022, most fantasy GMs will have drafted him early and that regression won't have much to do with the number of chances he will get (the same or more) but rather a drop in efficiency.
That's why Hines can only improve his results in 2022 compared to years past. Even if Taylor retains his volume (372 touches over the 2021 campaign), Hines already found a way to get 96 touches himself last year. That won't happen, though, as no rusher has had back-to-back 372+ touch seasons in the past 10+ years. Hines has always been a low-maintenance performer, and although he's gone through some ups and downs in his career, he has an average of 9.0 FPPG in his four seasons as a pro in Indy. PFF sees Hines getting more than 125 touches for a total of 146.8 PPR points next year. That'd be good for an RB33 finish compared to his ADP of around 130th OVR. The ROI is virtually even here, which means Hines is currently at the sweet spot of draft prices/values. If the price keeps rising too much (say, past the 100-110 range), then you can safely start fading Hines as he won't be worth that much.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
As ridiculous as it sounds, Jalen Hurts is just eight carries short of Miles Sanders' projection of 172 rushing attempts, per PFF's latest run of projections. The thing is, Sanders will have nearly no competition in the Eagles backfield next season mostly because the alternatives are Boston Scott (perennial backup rusher) and Kenneth Gainwell (vastly overpriced without pass-play skills). The only thing boosting the numbers of the latter two players a bit last season was precisely Sanders missing time and appearing in only 12 games. That along with him missing nine total games in the past two years should give fantasy GMs a bit of pause when drafting Sanders.
Now, for the positives, Sanders (when available and healthy) is clearly the go-to rusher on this team and the one doing it all on both rush and pass plays. He was getting off fantasy draft boards with the 38th OVR pick last year only to disappoint finishing as the RB45 and 159th-best fantasy player. That has depressed Sanders' ADP this summer, which is currently at around 75th. With a projection of 161.4 PPR points translating to an RB29 finish, that price is a bit high for Sanders' projected season. Things could get even worse if Philly decides to add another rusher, as the latest reports suggest--the Eagles might be looking to add a big-bodied rusher and although that mystery player probably won't eat a huge chunk of Sanders' pie, he'd still get some touches here and there.
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