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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/11/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! The weekend is finally here. We had some bad luck yesterday, with Aaron Ashby having his worst start of the season, as well as Luis Garcia being victim to multiple homers from Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Aguilar. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, June 11, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 30-36-1, -12.27 units
- Sides: 23-24, -9.28 units
- Totals: 6-12-1, -4.69 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Blue Jays @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +205
TOR: Kevin Gausman | DET: Beau Breiske
I'll head out to Detriot for the first play of the day as we look to bounce back this afternoon. While I ended up laying off, I was taking a look at the over in yesterday's game, which hit relatively easily despite the Tigers logging just one run. It looks like runs will be tough to come by today as well as they'll be squaring off with Kevin Gausman (5-4, 2.78 ERA). Detroit will send right-handed hurler Beau Breiske (0-5, 4.93 ERA) to the mound.
Gausman has established himself as one of the best starters in the game today. His one fatal flaw this season has been allowing hard contact, which he allows at a 32.4% rate. I have this number positively regressing though, as my model projects Detroit to have just a 27.88% hard contact rate in this matchup to go along with a poor .368 wOBA + ISO. Gausman should be due for positive regression in regards to allowing runs as well, given his 2.59 xFIP, which is the same number I have him projected for this afternoon. Breiske on the other hand is allowing 34.3% hard contact and projects to allow a 30.23% hard contact rate against Toronto today. While his 4.76 projected xFIP is below his xFIP for the year, it's not by much (4.92).
Given the data, it's clear that Toronto has the clear starting pitching advantage here. I'll be looking at the Jays in the first five at -0.5, which FanDuel is giving us -170 odds on right now. We'll surely get some CLV here, so we'll want to get this play in early. Gausman has been dominant when pitching in the second game of a series, with the Blue Jays winning four straight starts in that situation. Conversely, the Tigers have lost four straight of Breiske's starts in the same situation. I won't overthink things here.
Pick: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-170) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Astros
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: HOU -270
MIA: Braxton Garrett | HOU: Framber Valdez
I'll head back down to Houston for our second play of the afternoon, but rather than looking at the F5 under, I'll be looking at the Astros' bats to catch fire against Marlins starter Braxton Garrett (0-1, 10.80 ERA). The Astros will look to avenge yesterday's loss, sending Framber Valdez (6-2, 2.61 ERA) to the mound.
While Garrett has had just one start on the season, it wasn't a very good one, as he allowed four runs on five hits in just 3.1 innings of work. He projects to have a brutal 7.71 xFIP today, while the Astros project a 35.08% hard contact rate and .611 wOBA + ISO. On the other hand, Framber Valdez projects to continue to pitch well, with a 3.20 projected xFIP. The Marlins project to make decent contact, though, given their 30.08% hard contact rate.
Like the Blue Jays, I'll be looking at the Astros F5 -0.5 line here. We're getting solid value here at -155, so I'm very happy to take it. The Marlins have put together a solid little win streak, winning four straight, but the last thing they want to see today is a lefty. They've lost four straight against southpaws, and they're running into not just one of the hottest lefties in the game, but one of the hottest pitchers in the league overall. The Astros have won each of his last six starts as a favorite, so I'll confidently back them to win the first five innings of this one.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (-155) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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