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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 5/21/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Saturday, RotoBallers! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, May 21, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 23-25-1, -6.21 units
- Sides: 17-16, -5.44 units
- Totals: 5-9-1, -2.47 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
- Notes: Tough break yesterday with the Giants, who went up early before falling behind 4-1 after a rough third inning from Jakob Junis. They managed to tie the game at four before a two-out infield single was followed up by a two-RBI double to give the Padres a lead. After tying the game in the ninth, Camilo Doval was not able to overcome the "ghost-runner" on second, allowing two runs to cross and the Giants unable to overcome another two-run deficit. The Blue Jays were able to take care of business, but it would've been nice for San Francisco to come away with a win there.
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: BOS -162
SEA: Chris Flexen | BOS: Garrett Whitlock
I'll head to Boston for my first play of the day. I ended up taking the Sox at -118 right before the first pitch, which worked out in my favor. The Mariners will send Chris Flexen to the mound today. Flexen comes into this one 1-6 with a 4.35 ERA. He is due to have some slight regression given his 4.51 xFIP, and my model projects him to be right around there, with a 4.58 projected xFIP in this one. Considering the M's are 1-6 behind Flexen, it's fairly obvious I'll be backing the Sox in this one.
Boston will send Garrett Whitlock to the mound, who's quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He comes into this one 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA and a 2.98 xFIP. My model projects him out to a 3.09 xFIP, giving the Sox a nice starting advantage here.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Red Sox at -162 on the money line, good for 61.83% implied odds. My projection model gives the Red Sox a 65.62% chance of winning, so we're getting solid value here. The Sox are up and down the better team here, and have won four straight against the Mariners. It also appears that Trevor Story has arrived, providing the Sox with a quality staple in their lineup, especially now that it looks like Xander Bogaerts will be sidelined for a few days. Despite this, I'll be backing the home favorite here.
Pick: Red Sox Money Line (-162) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA +118
ATL: Kyle Wright | MIA: Elieser Hernandez
We'll head to Miami for our second game of the day. The Marlins will send Elieser Hernandez to the mound, coming into this one 2-3 with a 6.15 ERA. He's been a bit unlucky this season, given his 4.99 xFIP. My model projects Hernandez to have a 4.68 xFIP in this one, among the lowest on today's slate of games. The Braves' offense is somewhat heating up, scoring just under five runs per game over their last three. They project to a .521 wOBA + ISO and a whopping 35.85% hard contact rate.
The Braves will send their young stud Kyle Wright to the mound, who comes into this one 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA. His xFIP isn't much lower than his ERA, coming in at just 2.99. My model projects him to pitch over his season average today, with a projected 2.78 xFIP. It also projects that he'll hold Miami's offense to just a .425 wOBA + ISO and 25.85% hard contact rate.
Rather than the full game money line, I'll choose to just attack Hernandez by taking the first five money line, which FanDuel has at -142. While I don't have the first five money line projections in my model, the Braves just have such a wide starting pitching advantage as well as the lineup advantage, especially with Ronald Acuna in it. I'll just keep it simple here and keep the bullpens out of it.
Pick: Braves F5 Money Line (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Thursday!
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