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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/29/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! We bounced back yesterday, going 2-0 on both plays. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups for the opening throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 season!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Friday, April 29, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 13-12-1, -3.06 units
- Sides: 11-6, +1.71 units
- Totals: 2-6-1, -4.78 units
- Notes: Solid day yesterday, winning both of our plays. Got a bit of a break with the late-inning heroics from Kyle Tucker in the Houston game, but the evening showdown in St. Louis was sweat-free. Always a good day to go 2-0, let's carry this momentum right into the weekend.
Seattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA -102
SEA: Matt Brash | MIA: Elieser Hernandez
I'll start today's slate off out in Miami, as the Mariners and Marlins start-up their weekend series. Seattle will be sending rookie Matt Brash to the mound. He comes into this one with a 1-1 record, a 4.20 ERA, and a 4.52 xFIP. While his numbers don't look exceptional on the surface, his stuff is absolutely electric. Miami has actually been hitting right-handed pitching well, ranking 7th in both OPS (.721) and wRC+ (115).
On the other side of the matchup, Elieser Hernandez is taking the mound for Miami. Hernandez is 1-1 as well, with a 5.87 ERA and an xFIP of 4.41. Like the Marlins, the Mariners have been hitting righties as well. They come into this one ranked just 12th in OPS (.712), but 6th in wRC+ (118). Two good starters against two good offenses, but I believe we have an edge here.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Mariners at -116, good for 53.7% implied odds. My model gives the Mariners a 58.62%, good for a +4.92% value margin. The Mariners have been hot in the first games of their series, winning each of their last four. I think this will be a close one, but I think the Mariners do have a slight pitching advantage here, so I'll be taking the value in Seattle.
Pick: Seattle Mariners Money Line (-116) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: STL -190
ARI: Madison Bumgarner | STL: Adam Wainwright
We'll head back to St. Louis for the second game of the day, as the Diamondbacks take on the Cardinals once again. It's the battle of the old men as Madison Bumgarner takes the mound for Arizona. MadBum is 0-1 with a 1.00 ERA across his first four starts of the season. He should be expected to regress, much like Castellanos last night, as his xFIP sits at 4.69. Like Castellanos, I expect that regression to come against the Cardinals who rank first in both OPS (.851) and wRC+ (150).
On the other side of the field the other old man, Adam Wainwright, takes the ball. Waino has picked up a decision in each of his four starts, coming into this one 2-2. With an ERA of 3.86 but an xFIP of 3.11, we can expect some positive regression from him tonight. He left too many pitches over the plate during Sunday's start against Cincinnati, but as long as he can work the corners, he should be able to take care of business against a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 20th in OPS (.613) and 24th in wRC+ (81).
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Cardinals juiced again, this time at -190, good for 65.52% implied odds. My model gives St. Louis a 66.69% chance of winning this game, good for a +1.72% value margin. The Cardinals have won six straight games on Fridays dating back to last season and have continued to dominate against Arizona, especially at Busch Stadium. We're paying a heavy price here again today, but I'll take the value where I can find it and I'll back the home favorite again.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals Money Line (-190) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, Rotoballers! Stay tuned for more plays throughout the day!
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