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Justin Dunbar evaluates the 2022 rookie TE class for fantasy football and dynasty leagues. Who are the top tight ends in this year's draft class?
We may be in the NFL offseason, but there is never an offseason in fantasy football! For redraft leagues, the "offseason" is filled with the NFL Draft and an extensive amount of draft prep to build the best team possible come summer time. Meanwhile, dynasty leagues required 365-day dedication; trades and other moves are consistently happening to improve your roster construction, similar to how it'd be if you're a NFL general manager. Regardless of your team standing, the rookie draft is a critical part of a dynasty draft. These are the young players that can lead a rebuild, while they can also potentially be finishing pieces or trades assets for a contending team. Meanwhile, if you're in redraft leagues, knowing which fantasy football rookies to target is very important.
Today, we'll be taking an early look at the tight end position, with a top-five ranking, as well as an overall view of the class. You can also read about the WR rookie class and RB rookie class. To help with this, I will be using my own prospect grading/projection spreadsheet, which takes a look at a player's college production, athleticism, and expected draft capital to try to project how many points they'll score at the next level, based on historical research.
In dynasty, tight ends are usually not extremely coveted; it is the scarcest position in terms of talent. If you draft them in rookie drafts, you're banking on the player emerging as a difference maker at a thin position, which can definitely help put you over the edge. At the same time, tight ends take time to develop, making it potentially more of a proposition for a rebuilding club. So, who is the #1 tight end in this year's class, and who else should you be targeting?
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Isaiah Likely, Tight End, Coastal Carolina
- Projected PPG: 9.19
There were a lot of surprises during the 2020 college football season. Chief among them was Coastal Carolina University, who went from an unknown team to the 14th-raked college football program. Add in a big win against #2 overall pick Zach Wilson and a hyped-up BYU team, and it was truly a special season for him.
Although there were a lot of impact players on that team, that player that stood out from that team was Isaiah Likely. You couldn't have asked for better production from the standout tight end. Just take a look at what he's been able to accomplish over the past two seasons:
- 2021: 93.5 PFF Receiving Grade, 2.99 Yards/Route Run, 15.5 Yards/Reception
- 2020: 92.3 PFF Receiving Grade, 2.70 Yards/Route Run, 20 Yards/Reception
Those are quite strong numbers, to say the least. Simply put, he was the engine that kept the Coastal Carolina offense going. Plus, we have now seen Likely produced in multiple roles. In 2020, he was more of a deep threat with a 13.7-yard average depth of target, even playing 10.3% of his snaps out wide. In 2021, though, his average depth of target dropped to 9.4 yards; he was used much more in the short passing game out of the slot.
Something encouraging with Likely is his improvement when it comes to producing after the catch. After posting just 3.8 yards after catch per reception in 2019, those numbers soared up to 7 and 6.9, respectively. Furthermore, this isn't just a late bloomer- he ranks in the 97th percentile in breakout age, and is young for a someone coming out as a senior.
He may not be the biggest tight end, but Likely is an ultra-athletic player with a track record of versatile production. The prototypical tight end for fantasy football is one who can stretch the field vertically and make big plays, and no one in this class does that better than Likely. Coming from a smaller school with some size concerns, his expected draft capital isn't a lock. However, if he can be just a third-round pick, he'd be my pick to end up as the top tight end in this draft. I'd even consider it "Likely".
Trey McBride, Tight End, Colorado State
- Projected PPG: 8.77
For a college tight end, there is no more prestigious honor than the John Mackey Award. This award is given to the player considered to be college football's "most outstanding tight end", and has been given to several very talented players such as Kyle Pitts, Mark Andrews Heath Miller, and Dallas Clark. In other words, you pay attention to the players that win thes award.
Well, I guess Trey McBride should have your attention! The 22-year-old was 2021's John Mackey award winner, and for good reason. Even moreso than Likely, he WAS the Colorado State offense. He commanded 122 targets last season, compiling 1125 yards and earning a 95 PFF receiving grade in the process. Dominator rating isn't someone that predicts pro performance well for tight ends, but it's still noteworthy he ranked in the 99th percentile with a 46.3% dominator rating- that encapsulates how productive he was last season.
McBride was limited to four games in 2020, but he did showcase breakout potential with a 90.8 PFF receiving grade and 2.6 yards/route run. Obviously, that transpired into an elite season in 2021, which will likely have him be the first tight end drafted.
In terms of what he brings to the table, McBride is very different than Likely. Whereas the latter is more of a big-play threat, the former is more of a steady, reliable chain mover. His average depth of target last season was just 8.6 yards, while he had just 12.4 yards/reception and five yards after catch/reception. If you want someone who is going to be as reliable a target as it gets, he's your guy. However, don't expect a lot of big plays from him.
Given his production last year and the fact he'll likely be the highest-drafted tight end in this year's draft, McBride certainly deserves recognition. There are some clear similarities to Hunter Henry here, though the floor is probably more on the lines of Adam Trautman. He's likely not going to be a top-tier player, but he could easily end up as a "steady eddy". Hey, at such a thin position, that can work!
Jalen Wydermyer, Tight End, Texas A&M
- Projected PPG: 7.55
Generally, the tight ends selected in the early rounds of the draft aren't coming out as seniors. Rather, they're coming out as young juniors, as they've already demonstrated their abilities and are ready for the next level.
That's the selling card for Jalen Wydermyer. He's actually the only player on this list who declared for the draft as a junior, which gives him an advantage over the rest of his peers. Plus, he's only 21.2 years-old for the moment, so he's actually slightly young for his class. For more analytically-minded front offices, that's certain going to give him a boost on their draft board.
Heading into this season, Wydermyer was considered to be the top tight end in this year's draft class. As a freshman, he earned a 79.6 PFF receiving grade, and then followed that up with an 84 PFF receiving grade as a sophomore. That was extremely impressive at such a young age, especially with inconsistent quarterback play in a tough conference.
The hope was that Wydermyer, in his junior season, would see another bump in his performance. Instead, he regressed to a 68.1 PFF receiving grade, as well as a career-low 1.51 yards/route run. At the same time, the main reasons for this was a 16.7% drop rate, which is not a problem he dealt with at all during his early career. Considering that drops can be volatile and his quarterback play wasn't strong, it's easy to write that off as natural variance.
After showcasing a lot of abilities after the catch as a freshman, Wydermyer wasn't able to replicate that over the past two years of his career He appears to be a strong separator who may not have the pure hands as McBridge, but more natural route-running. His production from a young age in the SEC is extremely enticing, especially if he can work his way into the second round. There isn't a true selling card that makes him standout, but he does profile as a capable starting tight end if his development goes smoothly.
Greg Dulcich, Tight End, UCLA
- Projected PPG: 7.34
For whatever reason, a lot of the tight ends didn't test at the combine. Of these five players, Greg Dulcich is the only one who actually tested. Hey, that should earn him a bump up for making our lives easier, right?
In all seriousness, there's definitely reason to be intrigued by Dulcich as a prospect. As a junior, he came on strong with an 83.7 PFF receiving grade, in addition to 2.44 yards/route run. While he wasn't able to replicate that production, he was still relatively productive, translating 65 targets into 725 receiving yards. After not playing much his first two seasons, he certainly burst onto the scene his final two years.
Where Dulcich thrives specifically is with his production after the catch. Over the past two seasons, he posted yards after the catch/reception totals of seven and 6.8, respectively. Meanwhile, unlike some of the tight ends in this class, he was asked to work down the field with a career average depth of target of 13.2 yards. That lead to him (17.6 yards/reception) being a big-play threat, giving him an edge over some of the less dynamic players in this class.
Meanwhile, Dulcich performed above-average all-around in the combine, which makes sense given his big-play numbers. Considering his role, it makes sense that his production may have not been up to par with the top-two players in this class; a case can be made he had a tougher role. If he emerges as a low reception, big-play threat that can work up the seams, that's not ideal for fantasy, though, so hopefully he can become more versatile at the next level.
Dulcich has been placed on the second day of the draft in most mock drafts, which means that he could be seen as a future starter for whatever his next team is. Most likely, he'll end up as a high-end #2 tight end who runs a vertical route tree and makes some big plays, a la Donald Parham in Los Angeles, but perhaps he can put it all together at the next level in the right situation, like Dawson Knox did- he's a similar prospect comparison to him based on his profile. The production may not come right away, but that is typical for most tight ends! I'm very interested to see how he pans out at the next level.
James Mitchell, Tight End, Virginia Tech
- Projected PPG: 6.93
If there was one thing I could ban in sports, it would be injuries. Unfortunately, they remain a part of the game.
After a strong junior season at Virginia Tech, James Mitchell was expected to be a key part of their team in 2021. Unfortunately, he had to undergo season-ending knee surgery after getting in hurt in Week 2. All told, he ran a total of 26 routes; that certainly is not how he wanted his senior season to go.
Thus, we have an overall limited sample size for Mitchell- just 406 routes run and 76 targets. As a sophomore, Mitchell, who only played 31.5% of his snaps in-line, he was a glorified tight end, and was acceptable with a 69.8 PFF receiving grade and a 1.59 yards/route run. For a sophomore, that is fine production, but the hope was for a step up in his junior season.
That is exactly what happened. Mitchell played much more in-line (50.5%), and thrived with an 80.5 PFF receiving grade and averaged 3.09 yards/route run. Meanwhile, he was used much more down the field with an average depth of target of 11 yards, and was a clear big-play threat with 17.3 yards/reception. All told, it was a very strong season, and a case could be made he could have declared for the draft then.
What makes Mitchell so special is his production after the catch. Overall, he averaged an absurd 10.5 yards after catch/reception, which played a big role in his career 16.4 yards/reception; he averaged 17.2 yards/reception as a sophomore despite just a seven-yard average depth of target. As someone who can either stretch the field vertically or make plays after the catch, he is quite the versatile player.
Unfortunately, between the injury and some concerns whether he's a "true" tight end, Mitchell could see his draft stock fall; he is projected to go around the sixth round, which is not ideal. It's kind of a similar situation to Brevin Jordan last year, who fell to the fifth-round despite strong production after the catch. He's someone I'd bet on late in rookie drafts based on the talent, especially since the position is filled with players who came out of the later rounds to produce when given the opportunity. Considering he'll be a cheaper target than some of the other tight ends, he might actually end up producing the best value. Hey, there's nothing more exciting like a late-round tight end stash for your dynasty team.
Rookie Tight Ends Overview
The intrigue associated with the position truly falls off after these five players, in my opinion. Chig Oknownko is extremely athletic, while Charlie Kolar was productive in college. However, the former wasn't very productive in college, while the latter has clear athletic limitations.
Compared to last year, this is not what I'd call a strong tight end class. In fact, I'd say that there are at least three prospects (Kyle Pitts, Pat Freiermuth, Brevin Jordan) as superior prospects compared to any oft he players in this class. I'm intrigued with Likely's big-play ability, McBride's college production, and Wydermyer's production from a young age. In other words, one of these players could break out to be "THE" tight end that pans out extremely well. Who will it be? I guess we'll have to wait and see!
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