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While the CBA was agreed upon last week, we all knew that the MLB Hot Stove would fire up, and it is heating up. The Reds have been rumored to be seeking suitors for some of their starting pitchers and found a match with the Twins on Sunday. They agreed to send Sonny Gray and minor league right-hander Francis Peguero to the Twins for the 2021 first-round pick in right-hander Chase Petty.
The Twins have been and still need starting pitching help, so dealing for Gray is a step in the right direction. Gray will become the team’s number one starter and joins Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Randy Dobnak in the rotation. They will need to add more depth, but this is a start and comes just a day after they traded away catcher Mitch Garver for Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
The easy response to the trade is saying this is a big boost for Gray. Sure it is. Leaving Great American Ball Park is a plus and an improvement in the defense behind him. However, there are some other factors favoring Gray, so let’s take a deeper dive into the fantasy impact of Sonny Gray joining the Minnesota Twins.
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An Odd 2021 for Sonny
Gray is coming off a 2021 season where he made 26 starts, throwing 135.1 innings. He missed time with three IL stints due to a groin injury and a rib cage injury. Over the season, he racked up a 4.19 ERA to go with a 3.66 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA, and 3.25 xERA. So, maybe things were not as bad as they seemed initially.
One of his most significant problems in 2021 was a 1.26 HR/9 and a 16.5% HR/FB, which were both his worst since 2016, his last season in Oakland. He continued to get his fair share of groundballs (47.2%) and gave us his career-worst in fly balls at 32.1%. His contact rates were also higher than in previous seasons, which did not help the cause. The increase in fly balls, increase in his HR/FB, and increase in contact rates were a recipe for disaster.
Even with the increased contact rates, he still limited the contact quality quite well. His barrel rate was 92% in baseball, while his hard-hit rate was good for 91% in baseball. Much of the quality of contact skills was due to his excellent pitch mix that features six pitches, but he primarily throws four. Gray threw his sinker 29.3%, 4-seam fastball 23.8%, curveball 23%, and slider 15.6% of the time.
His slider limits production to the best of the four but also has a 51% strike rate which is horrible compared to the average league rate of 63%. However, since he does not get a lot of swing and miss with the slider, he throws the other three pitches more, giving him some strikeout success. Gray finished with a 30% CSW which helped him strike out 155 batters last year, suitable for a 27% rate, and with an 8.7% walk rate, he had a decent 18.3% K-BB.
Overall, Gray had a decent year that could show some significant improvements in 2022 if he can limit the long ball and continue to rack up the strikeouts. He still gets a lot of ground balls while limiting hard contact, which will play well outside of Great American Ball Park. Let’s take a deeper look into the gains Gray may receive changing teams and the ballpark he will call home.
A New Home in Minnesota
A change of scenery is sometimes a good thing, and in this instance, it can only be a good thing for Gray. He is leaving Great American Ball Park, a significant hitter’s park, and heading to Target Field, playing well for the pitcher.
| Park Factors | Overall | HR | wOBACon |
| GABP | 3rd | 1st | 2nd |
| Target Field | 18th | 20th | 21st |
For a pitcher with a significant increase in home run problems in 2021, Gray should benefit significantly from the park change. When looking at his Home/Road splits, we see just another reason why Gray will gladly take the difference in ballparks.
| IP | ERA | xFIP | HR/FB | AVG | wOBA | |
| Home | 70 | 4.89 | 3.9 | 20.60% | 0.232 | 0.322 |
| Road | 65.1 | 3.44 | 3.41 | 11.50% | 0.216 | 0.274 |
As one can easily see, Gray gave up more hits, more home runs, and more overall offensive production when pitching at home in 2021 versus on the road. The park upgrade is nice, but so is the defense behind Gray. Gray is a heavy ground ball pitcher, and he will receive a massive upgrade in defense behind him by moving to the Twins.
| OAA | Runs Prevented | |
| Reds | 29th | 30th (-30) |
| Twins | 12th | 7th (5) |
The Reds' defense was one of the worst in baseball, and now Gray moves to a team near the top-10 in baseball. The ballpark and defense upgrades alone are a massive win in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlook
It’s easy to see that Gray’s fantasy value should take a positive bump with the move from Cincinnati to Minnesota. However, one concern could hold Gray back: his fastball. He throws it nearly as much as his sinker, and it just is not as effective as it once was. The velocity on the fastball has been dropping, and the offenses have been taking advantage of the drop. He was still solid when his fastball was over 93 mph; it was not good when it dropped.
If Gray can gain some velocity or change his pitch mix to include more sinkers, curveballs, and sliders, he could be of tremendous value this season. Over the last couple of weeks in NFBC Online Championships, he has an ADP of 161.38, and we should see that ADP climb with the trade. I will buy Gray, enjoy the park and defensive improvements, and hope for a fastball velocity bump. You should join me and draft the value that is Sonny Gray.
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