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Mark Kieffer's March Madness college basketball betting picks for the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. He recommends top CBB bets including spreads and over/unders.
For the first time in three years, we will have an NCAA Tournament that resembles a sense of normalcy with players, coaches, and fans all in the same arena! This is the most excited I have been in a long time. My Iowa State Cyclones have bounced back from a 2-22 season (that's not a typo) to make it back into the big dance as an 11 seed against LSU. In addition, the NCAA tournament is one of the premier events that I have watched since I was 12 or so and now I am 38. My early childhood sports memories include the NCAA Tournament such as Marcus Camby and UMass in 1996, my hometown Minnesota Gophers making the Final Four in 1997, and Bryce Drew hitting that memorable buzzer-beater in 1998 as school was on Spring break.
Being off of work and watching these first-round games will take me back to being a kid and just geeking out over sports. I will be watching every NCAA tournament game. I will share my top betting picks for each round of the NCAA Tournament here at RotoBaller, and am excited to share my thoughts with you! Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets.
This article highlights my top college basketball betting picks for the First Round (Thursday and Friday, March 17 and 18, 2022). I will be posting a spreadsheet with all of my bets for the NCAA tournament. I will pin the tweet with the link in the coming days. You can follow all of my picks, including live picks, on my Twitter @Mark_Kieffer. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time and reference the odds at Caesars Sportsbook. You can access all of our latest sports betting promos, and sign up for Caesars Sportsbook here.
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#11 Michigan vs. #6 Colorado State
Thursday 12:15 PM
Leading off the NCAA tournament of 2022, Michigan vs. Colorado State is a game that offers some value. Colorado State is No. 20 in offensive efficiency and No. 83 in defensive efficiency. Michigan is No. 19 in offensive efficiency and No. 91 in defensive efficiency. Colorado State's At a macro-level these teams are dead-even.
Colorado State has an experienced backcourt. Isaiah Stevens, the starting point guard, is a junior and a three-year starter for the Rams. Kendle Moore starts at shooting guard, and while he is more of a role player for the Rams he is a four-year starter as well. David Roddy, CSU's leading scorer is a Junior as he averages 19.4 points per game with a 63.7% eFG%.
Michigan also has an experienced backcourt with two Senior guards in DeVante' Jones and Eli Brooks. Jones played his previous three seasons at Coastal Carolina while Brooks is a fifth-year player. Hunter Dickinson, the Wolverines' starting center, is Michigan's leading scorer as a Sophomore. He averages 18.3 points per game with a 58.7% eFG%.
At a high level, these teams are even and this game is essentially a coin flip. Both teams have efficient offenses and below-average defenses. Colorado State's adjusted tempo is No. 280 while Michigan's No. 218. In what is likely to be a tight game, this could be a slower tempo affair and each team tries to grind out the win. Betting Under 140 (-110), and Colorado State +2.5 (-110) are both interesting bets here, however, my favorite is Colorado State (+125).
Pick: Colorado State (+125)
#9 Creighton vs. #8 San Diego State
Thursday 7:27 PM
This game featuring Creighton and San Diego State should have a larger point spread in my opinion. While both teams mirror each other in many ways, San Diego State clearly is the better team to me right now. Creighton is No. 18 in defensive efficiency and No. 124 in offensive efficiency. San Diego State is No. 2 in defensive efficiency and No. 157 in offensive efficiency.
The main difference in this team lies with experience. Creighton is without their excellent Freshmen point guard, Ryan Nembhard with a wrist injury. In his place, they have relied on two other Freshmen: Rati Andronikashvili and Trey Alexander. The inexperience at point guard is an issue for them as they have a 20.5% Turnover Percentage (No. 305 in the country).
San Diego State is more experienced as a team as they start four seniors and a junior. Additionally, San Diego State forces their opponents to turn the ball over on average 21.7% of the team, No. 29 in the country. This is a game that I could see starting close in a defensive battle with San Diego State running away with late. Generally, this could be very low-scoring, a game where both teams are in the 50s. The San Diego State money line (-130) was considered as was Under 121.0 (-110), however, -2.0 points is my favorite bet in this game. This is a line that could move to -2.5 or -3.0 as the week goes on.
Pick: San Diego State -2.0 (-110)
#13 Vermont vs. #4 Arkansas
Thursday 9:20 PM
This game is a sneaky matchup that I am going to enjoy watching on Thursday night. Vermont starts five seniors, as a team has a 57.3 eFG% (No. 3), and a turnover rate of just 14.9% (No. 16). Vermont shoots 36.8% on their three-pointers (No. 38).
Arkansas in their own right is a very tough team, as they are No. 16 in defensive efficiency and No. 40 in offensive efficiency. They also have experience in that they start three seniors. JD Notae, a senior point guard, is a stud. He averages 18.4 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game, and 3.7 assists per game. Arkansas should be favored in this matchup but five points are too many for me.
Vermont is not likely to win, but they have the makings of one of those spoiler teams being experienced and having the ability to have a good shooting night. If they can come out and shoot 40% from three, they could win the game or keep it pretty close. This line opened at +6.5 and is already at +5.0 just a few hours after the brackets came out (it was at +5.5 when I started typing this article). If it gets to +4.5 or lower, I would pass on the game and try to live bet it.
Pick: Vermont +5.0 (-110)
#10 Davidson vs. #7 Michigan State
Friday 9:40 PM
To a casual basketball fan, Michigan State vs. Davidson would seem like an uneven matchup. Everyone knows who Tom Izzo is, and we have seen numerous Michigan State runs over the years. Some people might remember that Davidson is where Steph Curry went to school, but to someone who doesn't follow closely, they might just see them as a random midmajor that has no chance to win.
Davidson starts three juniors, two seniors and has the No. 11 offensive efficiency. Davidson also turns the ball over just 14.8% (No. 15) of the time and shoots three-pointers at a 38.5% rate (No. 14). Davidson is the kind of team that could definitely be a bracket-buster type of a team if they can get hot.
Michigan State on the flip-side is solid - No. 38 in offensive efficiency and No. 53 in defensive efficiency. They play better defense than Davidson but their offense doesn't have as much upside as Davidson does.
The way I see this game is that it's a coin flip. I don't mind Davidson +1.5 (-110), but I would rather take the money line (+105) for better odds. If the money line gets to +100, or if Davidson gets flipped to a favorite then I wouldn't bet it before the game (but would consider live betting).
Pick: Davidson (+105)
Thanks for reading, bet smart, and enjoy Round 1 of the tournament! I will write an update for Round 2 so be sure to check back. Good luck RotoBallers.
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