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Patrick Sandoval carried some modest hype heading into the 2022 season. He wasn’t flying off the fantasy draft boards, but his 2.91 ERA across 27 starts and 148.2 innings pitched last year was not a shocker to many.
With that level of output, and considering Patrick is just 26 years old, you’d expect his stock to boost.
Strangely, Sandoval’s 2022 success barely moved the needle on his 2023 ADP, and he is once more a sleeper pick.
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Will the Real Patrick Please Stand Up?
Just playing the devil’s advocate here, but it wouldn’t be out of bounds to claim that Patrick’s game has some drawbacks. His career 9.6 BB% is atrocious and the 9.4% he posted in 2022 did little to ease that concern. It also speaks to a larger problem with pitch economy and pitching deep into games. Last season, Sandoval averaged 5.5 IP per outing on roughly 86 pitches per game. Sporting a bloated 3.6 BB/9, it’s clear to see what held him back from regularly getting through the sixth inning.
Supporting the case against Sandoval, he did outperform his advanced metrics. Patrick’s 2.91 ERA was a noticeable departure from his 3.83 xERA, and the same can be said for his .333 SLG (.353 xSLG), .294 wOBA (.304 xwOBA), and .309 FIP (.367 xFIP). This would seemingly indicate incoming regression, but it’s not as if his advanced stats are bad. Sandoval is just 26 years old, so it’s reasonable to assume he will continue improving. Even if he did regress, does a 3.83 ERA and .367 FIP floor not justify taking Patrick before his 218.7 ADP?
Now let’s dive into the positives. As an overall jumping-off point, it’s important to highlight Sandoval’s 138 ERA+ in 2022. Had he pitched 13.1 more innings, Patrick would’ve ranked 13th in the majors among all qualified starters. That represents a jump from his impressive 124 ERA+ in 2021, and altogether signals a positive trend that borders on elite territory.
At the center of Sandoval’s success is the ability to induce weak contact. He posted a strong 34.8 HardHit%, 29.9 Sweet Spot %, and 87.4 MPH Average Exit Velocity last season. Most notably, Patrick sported a 5.5 Barrel %, down from 6.1% the year prior, and a 6.7% league average. The result was a significant drop-off in home run balls for Sandoval. From 2019-2021, he averaged 1.5 HR/9 across a total of 163 IP. During the 2022 campaign, Patrick surrendered a paltry 0.5 HR/9 across 148.2 IP.
Sandy's Strikeout Success
Another asset in Sandoval’s offering Is his strikeout upside. Ironically, this also may be a reason his draft stock stalled. After posting a strong 25.7 K% in 2021, that number fell to 23.7% last year. It remains a tick above the 22.1% league average, but it wasn’t quite as flashy as advertised. Still, he possesses an overall 30.9 Whiff % for his career and posted a career-best 31.5 Chase % in 2022.
Sandoval’s changeup seems to be the most identifiable reason for his drop in strikeouts. The changeup has been his signature pitch at the MLB level, peaking in 2021, when it accounted for 29.6% of Patrick’s total pitches – the most of any in his arsenal. It also generated a staggering 51.4 Whiff %. In short, when it’s on, Sandoval’s changeup is one of the most devastating pitches in all of baseball.
In 2022, despite remaining his most dominant pitch, Patrick’s changeup usage waivered. He threw it just 24.8% of the time, opting to run up his slider usage to 28.4% despite the changeup’s superior 44.8 Whiff % and 84.9 MPH Average Exit Velocity. However, it’s not as if the slider wasn’t a success. It generated a .210 xBA, .322 xSLG, .263 xwOBA, and a strong 33.8 Whiff %. It remains to be seen what sort of pitch distribution Sandoval will employ in 2023 but maintaining at least an above-average strikeout rate seems like his floor projection.
Summary
In conclusion, Sandoval’s upside is much higher than his 218.7 ADP suggests. While some numbers imply regression may materialize, so too will growth, -- especially given his age. Patrick’s realistic floor is an ERA below four with above-average strikeout production. If he can finally work past his prolific walk troubles, we’ll see him pitch deeper in games. That will translate into more innings and opportunities to pick up wins. If he leans into his changeup like he used to, don’t be surprised to see his strikeout rate spike. Sandoval is well worth reaching for a few rounds early.
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