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Jackson Sparks discusses WR DeVonta Smith as one of the top dynasty fantasy football risers for 2023 after a stellar 2022 NFL season.
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith posted was selected 10th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft after posting 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns in his final season at Alabama. Needless to say, his expectations were high and the former Heisman winner didn't disappoint in his rookie campaign. Smith caught 64 passes for 916 yards and five touchdowns in one of the lowest-volume passing offenses in the NFL in 2021.
However, his dynasty value dropped dramatically when the Eagles sent a first and third-round pick to the Tennessee Titans to acquire A.J. Brown. The belief was the Eagles' passing attack led by Jalen Hurts wouldn't be able to support two high-end fantasy wide receivers, and Smith was clearly going to be the No. 2 option. We now know that was far from the case, and Smith improved in every statistical category in 2022 – catapulting him back up the dynasty rankings.
In this edition of dynasty risers and fallers, we'll dive into Smith's 2022 season, his current dynasty value and market, and his 2023 season outlook with his new team. Let's get to it!
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2022 Season In Review
In Smith's first game with Brown against the Detroit Lions, the Smith doubter looked to have merit to their argument. Week 1 saw Smith go without a catch on four targets – good for a goose egg in the fantasy points column. That said, panic crept in immediately, but hopefully, Smith's dynasty managers didn't sell him low.
In Week 2, Smith caught all seven of his targets for 80 yards and posted a WR15 week in PPR formats. Against the Washington Commanders in Week 3, we saw his true week-winning upside. Smith roasted the Washington defense, catching eight of his 12 targets for 169 yards and one touchdown. He set a career-high in fantasy points with 30.9 and posted his first-ever overall WR1 fantasy performance.
He followed his monster day up with a dud against Jacksonville, catching just three passes for 17 yards, but rebounded in Weeks 5 and 6. Against the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys, Smith caught 15 of his 16 targets for 131 yards and one touchdown – posting WR12 and WR22 finishes respectively.
After the team's Week 7 bye, he delivered mixed results from Week 8 to Week 12. During that five-game stretch, Smith was the fantasy WR34 – totaling 23 receptions on 36 targets for 212 yards and one touchdown. His weekly results consisted of three finishes outside the top 50 fantasy wideouts, and then a WR28 and WR20 finish. However, when it mattered most for fantasy managers, Smith more than delivered.
From Weeks 13 to 18, Smith saw his best stretch of consistent, high-end production. He caught 39 of his 57 targets for 587 yards and four touchdowns. He ranked second in the NFL in receiving yards over that six-week sample – trailing only A.J. Brown. He was the WR4 overall with finishes as the WR11, WR16, WR17, WR3, WR9, and WR22. This set of games established himself as a locked-in dynasty WR1 and proved Jalen Hurts could produce as one of the best passers in the NFL – although his two highest scoring days came with Gardner Minshew.
On the season overall, Smith hauled in 95 receptions for 1,196 yards and seven receiving scores. He finishes as the WR9 in total fantasy points, eclipsing 17 fantasy points in 8 of his 17 contests. His Week 1 zero-catch day proved to be a fluke and he finished just ahead of Amari Cooper and just behind Jaylen Waddle in overall fantasy production.
Per Playerprofiler.com data, Smith ranked inside the top-15 wideouts in receptions, receiving yards, yards after catch (485), juke rate (15.8%), yards per route run (2.30), yards per team pass attempt (2.23), expected points added (+64.9).
DeVonta Smith Dynasty Value/Market
While player valuations will vary widely from league to league, KeepTradeCut.com is a helpful resource for getting an idea of a player's value. These crowdsourced rankings have Smith as the dynasty WR10 and the 29th most valuable player or draft pick overall. A day before the 2022 NFL season kicked off, Smith was ranked as the WR21. After his zero fantasy point day in Week 1, he fell as low as the WR34 overall. Now, he's ranked near the likes of Tee Higgins, DK Metcalf, and Drake London.
DeVonta Smith Dynasty Value
Jalen Hurts just signed a massive contract to stay with the team long-term and with Brown and Dallas Goedert still on the roster, it'd be surprising if the Eagles spent an early draft pick on a pass-catcher. That said, Smith's value shouldn't be impacted by the 2023 NFL Draft. In other words, his value is safe this offseason.
He is now worth at least an early 2023 rookie draft pick in dynasty formats.
2023 Fantasy Football Outlook
Smith's current 2023 FFPC ADP has him coming off the board at 26 overall (12th WR). Given the stability of the Eagles' offense, he's worth drafting as a WR1, even though his production is volatile. His boom weeks make up for the lackluster days and there's a chance the Eagles' defense will regress from 2022. If that happens, Philadelphia will be forced to pass instead of blowing teams out on a weekly basis – meaning more overall volume for its pass-catchers.
Just because an offense was elite one season doesn't mean it will automatically be in the next campaign, but Philly returns its entire offense except running back Miles Sanders and right guard Isaac Seumalo. That said, we should expect plenty of production once again and plenty of touchdown upside for Smith.
Investing in great offenses and boom-week receivers has been a recipe for fantasy success, so Smith is a strong fantasy asset for 2022.
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