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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 9 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 9 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows the Arizona to Denver offenses.
The visual below shows Detroit to Miami.
Finally, the Minnesota Vikings through the Washington Commanders can be seen below.
Week 9 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 9 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Byron Murphy Jr.
In surprising news, the Colts announced Joe Flacco would start over Anthony Richardson in Week 9. That boosts the Colts pass-catchers, including Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor. Downs should be a must-start player in three-receiver leagues, ranking 12th in first-read target share (32.1 percent) and 26th in expected fantasy points per game (13.6).
Theoretically, Flacco as quarterback should bode well for Pittman, too. However, Pittman's numbers haven't been as juicy compared to Downs. That's evident in Pittman ranking 47th in expected fantasy points per game (11.6) and 43rd in first-read target share (23.8 percent).
Pittman projects to face Byron Murphy Jr., allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per route run and 11th-most yards per route run. Murphy plays on a Vikings defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to receivers out wide (26.8) ahead of the Ravens at 26.8.
The Vikings bring pressure at the sixth-highest rate (36.4 percent) and have been a pass-funnel defense, leading to a 5.19 percent pass rate over expected (No. 6). Meanwhile, they allow the sixth-fewest adjusted yards before contact, suggesting teams struggle to run against the Vikings defense.
The Flacco downside scenario involves him struggling against pressure, with a -8.8 percent completion over expected, though it's a small sample in 2024. His 3.16 seconds in time to throw when pressured ranks 17th among qualified quarterbacks, so we could see the Colts' game plan around the Vikings' pressure by lowering his time to throw. Flacco's time to throw interestingly drops to 2.34 seconds with a neutral 0.5 percent completion rate over expected without pressure.
When looking at coverage data, we want to identify outliers, and the Vikings fit the mold, playing the fourth-most zone coverage (75.4 percent) with the highest rate of Cover 4 (25.9 percent). Pittman rocks a 27 percent targets per route run rate and 1.95 yards per route run against zone coverage. That's much better than his target rate (17 percent) and yards per route run (1.07) versus man coverage. Unsurprisingly, Downs leads the team in target rate (34 percent) and yards per route run (2.20) against zone coverage.
The ways to beat Cover 4 involve short passes and ones in the middle of the field. That's where Downs eats, with a 5.4 average depth of target against zone coverage compared to Pittman at 12.2. Downs has been the most productive Colts receiver, with 2.37 yards per route run and a whopping 44 percent targets per route run rate against Cover 4. Pittman and Adonai Mitchell rank second on the team with a 24 percent target rate, with Pittman edging Mitchell in yards per route run (0.83 vs. 0.10).
Pittman has -2.1 fantasy points over expected, meaning the results haven't matched the usage. It should be a smash spot for Downs since the top receiver against the Vikings averaged 11.8 targets, nine receptions, 110.4 receiving yards, and 23.9 PPR/G over the past five contests.
Those receivers mainly play in the slot or rotate there often, including Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Garrett Wilson, Jayden Reed, and Stefon Diggs. However, Pittman should outperform expectations in his WR/CB matchup upgrade as a WR3/4.
Ladd McConkey vs. Greg Newsome II
We'll go back to the well with Ladd McConkey after his breakout performance we discussed as a possibility in the Week 8 WR/CB Matchups column. Like the Saints, the Browns run man coverage often, the third-highest rate (41.3 percent) behind the Lions (43.8 percent) and Jaguars (43 percent).
I wrote about Ladd McConkey being a WR/CB matchup upgrade in Week 8 and a potential breakout game @RotoBallerNFL.
McConkey was impressive against the Saints, making contested catches & showing off the YAC. Wish I would’ve started him in one lineup over Jayden Reed or Deebo… https://t.co/7tJcZrEYbG pic.twitter.com/PArToVoFJJ
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 28, 2024
McConkey thrives against man coverage, with a 30 percent targets per route run rate behind Will Dissly (36 percent) and Quentin Johnston (32 percent). McConkey feasts on a per-route basis versus man coverage, with 4.18 yards per route run, ranking fifth among receivers with five or more targets.
The team defense level data would tell us to avoid McConkey since the Browns allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the slot, where he plays most often. However, McConkey's projected matchup with Greg Newsome II allows the 13th-most fantasy points per route and eighth-most yards per route run. That's another positive note in McConkey's favor.
Furthermore, the Browns run the highest rate of Cover 1 (37.5 percent), and McConkey boasts the highest yards per route run (4.72) among receivers with five or more targets facing Cover 1. While McConkey remains the most efficient producer for the Chargers, Johnston and Dissly match him in targets per route run. That's evident in McConkey's 31 percent target rate, with Johnston at 39 percent and Dissly at 37 percent.
Most fantasy managers likely won't bench McConkey after his breakout performance. This should be a second data point toward a trend, with another massive week against the Browns.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Tyrek Funderburk
The Chiefs passing offense hasn't been the most exciting in 2024, but they have a few pieces that complement each other. Based on expected fantasy points, Xavier Worthy's usage has increased to a borderline WR1/2. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce ranks fourth among tight ends in first-read target share (24.3 percent). How does DeAndre Hopkins fit in?
#ChiefsKingdom Xavier Worthy has been trending up.
Weeks 7-8:
✅15th in xFP/G (16.4)
📈12th in 1st-read target% (34.2%)
📈11th in air yards% (44.3%)Weeks 1-6:
🥶79th in xFP/G (8.5)
🥶65th in 1st-read target% (18.9%)
🥶43rd in air yards% (27.2%)Per @FantasyPtsData
— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 29, 2024
In Hopkins' first game with the Chiefs, he had a 33.3 percent route participation, with three targets (21 percent targets per route). For context, that's fifth in route rate on the team between Noah Gray (45.2 percent) and Mecole Hardman (28.6).
Hopkins led the team with a 15 average target depth, hinting at how it wants to use him. That's nearly twice the average target depth for Worthy (7.6) and Kelce (5.1) in Week 8. Kelce's usage remained similar, though Worthy has an average target depth of 11 on the season.
There's quite a bit of projection based on a 33.3 percent route share for Hopkins, but the matchup looks favorable for him. The Buccaneers allow the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers out wide, with the opposing receivers destroying the projected matchup of Tyrek Funderburk. He allows the third-most fantasy points per route run and the seventh-highest yards per route run.
The Buccaneers play the highest rate of zone coverage, and Hopkins tends to perform decently. That's evident by a 2.24 yards per route run and 24 percent target rate. Patrick Mahomes targeted Rashee Rice at a whopping 37 percent of his routes against zone coverage, with Kelce ranking second on the team at 24 percent.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay runs Cover 3 at the third-highest rate. That's where Hopkins performs efficiently and earns targets, with a 2.54 yards per route run and 26 percent target rate. It might be a desperation option, but don't be surprised if Hopkins reaches a season-high for volume and production against the Buccaneers in Week 9.
Week 9 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Diontae Johnson vs. Pat Surtain II
Johnson joining the Ravens likely becomes more beneficial for real life than fantasy purposes. He ranked 13th in expected fantasy points and the eighth-highest first-read target share with the Panthers.
The Ravens rank 23rd in neutral script pass rate (52 percent), which jumped two percentage points to 54 percent since Week 5. Though the Ravens boast the seventh-highest pass rate over expected at 4.69 percent, they've been leaning on the run game with the highest adjusted yards per contact per attempt.
It's tricky to project who will line up against Johnson because it's scary to match up against Pat Surtain II. The Ravens rotate Zay Flowers around the formation like Johnson, while Rashod Bateman plays mainly outside.
If Johnson lines up against Surtain, he faces one of the best corners, allowing the ninth-fewest yards per route run and eighth-fewest fantasy points per route run. The Broncos have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to receivers out wide compared to the eighth-lowest to the slot.
Since the Broncos run the fourth-highest rate of man coverage, it's strength against strength for Johnson, who rocks a 37 percent targets per route run rate and 2.67 yards per route run versus man coverage. Johnson has been more efficient than Flowers against man defenses, with a 2.73 yards per route run rate and 27 percent targets per route run rate.
Miraculously, Johnson was battling a ribs and ankle injury with the Panthers but was removed from the injury report with the Ravens heading into Week 9. We're projecting Johnson to be more efficient with the Ravens, though he won't soak up the target volume like in Carolina. Be patient with Johnson in Week 9 as a WR/CB matchup downgrade.
Jaylen Waddle vs. Rasul Douglas
We couldn't go without hearing about the contingent upside in the offseason with Jaylen Waddle in the Dolphins offense. Unfortunately, Waddle hasn't met expectations, ranking 60th in expected fantasy points via his lowly 19.5 percent first-read target share and 18.8 percent air yards share. Downgrading receivers against the Bills has been a winning strategy in the previous columns.
That's partly because the Bills defense projects as a run funnel, allowing the fifth-most adjusted yards per contact while running the fourth-most two-high safety looks.
Rasul Douglas allows the 16th-lowest fantasy points per route run, with Christian Benford giving up the fifth-fewest. Meanwhile, Douglas allows the 14th-fewest yards per route run, with Benford allowing the sixth-lowest. That means a potential downgrade matchup for Tyreek Hill and Waddle.
The Bills run the eighth-highest rate of zone coverage and the fourth-highest percentage of two-high safety looks. Waddle averages 1.83 yards per route run, similar to Hill (1.77), with identical targets per route run rates (24 percent) against zone coverage.
The Dolphins' top two receivers have similarly underwhelming numbers versus two-high safeties. That's evident in Waddle averaging 1.94 yards per route run with Hill at 1.52, while Hill bests Waddle in target rate (22 percent vs. 20 percent).
We wish would could say Waddle will bounce back in Week 9 since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8. However, De'Von Achane and the Dolphins run game should feast against the Bills, meaning we should downgrade Waddle and Hill.
Cedric Tillman vs. Cam Hart
If Cedric Tillman was available on the waiver wire, he likely wouldn't be there anymore after a massive 28.9 PPR point showing against the Ravens with Jameis Winston playing quarterback. It's a two-game sample against the Bengals and Ravens, and Tillman potentially won weeks, so how could we fade him in Week 9?
The Chargers have been a tough defense since they allow the 10th-lowest adjusted yards before contact while ranking 20th in pass rate over expected. That suggests the Chargers have been stout against the run, but it hasn't led opposing offenses to air it against them.
While Cam Hart isn't a household name, he allows the third-fewest fantasy points per route run behind Tyson Campbell of the Jaguars and Marshon Lattimore of the Saints. Furthermore, Hart allows the fifth-fewest yards per route run, making him one of the more difficult matchups for opposing receivers.
The Chargers run the second-highest rate of zone coverage (80.9 percent). Against zone coverage, Tillman's numbers look concerning, with 1.05 yards per route run and a 17 percent targets per route rate. Among pass-catchers with five or more targets against zone coverage, Tillman ranks fourth on the Browns in yards per route run behind Jordan Akins (1.52), David Njoku (1.43), and Jerry Jeudy (1.24).
We mentioned this in the high-value touch and opportunity column, but Elijah Moore matched Tillman in first-read target share in Week 8 with Winston at quarterback. Moore posted a team-high 29.4 percent first-read target share, with Tillman at 23.5 percent. That aside, the rest of the matchup data for Tillman raises red flags, though it's hard to sit him since we could envision variance in his favor against the Chargers' zone coverage.
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