WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 8 (2024)

October 27, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 8 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 8 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 8 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows the Arizona to Green Bay offenses.

The visual below shows Houston to New England.

Finally, the Saints through the Commanders can be seen below.

Week 8 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best offensive adjusted score.

Week 8 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Ladd McConkey vs. Alontae Taylor

Over the past three weeks, the Chargers pass at the third-highest rate during neutral game scripts. That's a 17 percentage point difference from Weeks 1-4, the second biggest change in Weeks 5-7. We've seen Justin Herbert's pass attempts rise to 34 (Week 6) and 39 (Week 7) after averaging 22.8 in Weeks 1-4.

Though McConkey's target shares haven't risen, the raw volume of seven targets per game remained steady. McConkey's usage won't jump off the page as WR40 in expected fantasy points per game at 10.6. However, the efficiency has been a brutal -0.2 fantasy points over expected per game (No. 113).

The Saints allow the seventh-most fantasy points to slot receivers, where McConkey lines up most. Alontae Taylor allows the 10th-most yards per route and ninth-most fantasy points per route run. Meanwhile, the Saints run man coverage at the 10th-highest rate. When McConkey faces man defenses, he garners a 30 percent targets per route run rate and produces 3.12 yards per route.

Buy McConkey as a WR3 with upside, especially in PPR formats since he provides a floor. Over the past five games, the top receivers facing the Saints averaged 9.8 targets, 7.2 receptions, just under 90 receiving yards, and 18.6 PPR/G. The most recent three were Troy Franklin, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chris Godwin, two of which primarily play in the slot. We could witness a breakout game for McConkey in Week 8.

Rashod Bateman vs. Martin Emerson Jr.

There's no denying Rashod Bateman makes splash plays, but how sustainable is it? Bateman averaged the 19th-most PPR/G at 16.3, yet 51st in target share (18.4 percent) and 29th in air yards share (28.4 percent) in Weeks 5-7. That indicates the production has been a product of efficiency since he averaged 8.0 expected fantasy points per game (EP/G) and 8.3 fantasy points over expected (FPOE/G) in Weeks 5-7. That's the eighth-most FPOE/G for Bateman among receivers over the past few weeks.

The Browns run the highest rate of man coverage at 46.5 percent and the highest rate of Cover 1. Bateman ranks second on the Ravens with a 23 percent targets per route run rate and third in yards per route (1.88) against man coverage. Specifically, Bateman averages a 20 percent targets per route run rate and 1.61 yards per route run versus Cover 1.

Though Bateman produced more efficiently against zone coverage, evidenced by his 2.58 yards per route run, he takes a hit in target rate at 15 percent. That's partly due to Bateman's 18.6 average depth of target (aDOT) versus zone and 11.6 aDOT against man coverages.

Bateman projects to face Martin Emerson Jr., allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per route and 24th-most yards per route run. That's interesting because the Browns rank middle of the pack, allowing 32 fantasy points to receivers (No. 14) and 19.5 PPR/G to receivers out wide (No. 15). The data suggests the Browns might be more middle of the pack unless a team can protect against the defensive pressure.

The Browns defense pressures quarterbacks at the highest rate while opposing offenses pass over expectation at 14.3 percent (No. 1). That means opposing teams pass more than expected, though the Browns bring a high-pressure rate.

Lamar Jackson ranks third in adjusted yards per attempt, yet a concerning -12.8 percent pass rate over expected (No. 35 out of 41 qualified quarterbacks) against pressure. Jackson has been efficient through the air under pressure, yet scrambles the second-most behind Jayden Daniels.

There's a chance the efficiency regresses for Bateman given the EP/G being more like a WR4 than his WR2-type production. Zay Flowers is dealing with an ankle injury, and the upside scenario involves Bateman seeing an uptick in targets with the efficiency maintaining.

However, the downside would be the Ravens being heavy favorites of 8.5 points, and they might pound the rock on the ground. If Jameis Winston and the Browns keep the divisional matchup close, Bateman's floor might be more projectable as an upgrade.

Courtland Sutton vs. Mike Jackson

The Broncos versus Panthers matchup could involve a similar game script to Week 7 against the Saints, where Denver's defense and run game correlate to lower receiving opportunities. That's evident in the Panthers bringing the lowest pressure rate and pass rate over expected at -8 percent, suggesting opposing offenses establish the run.

The visual below shows the team defenses with the lowest pass rates over expected, suggesting they're a run-funnel. 

However, the Panthers allow the fourth-most PPR/G to receivers out wide, where Courtland Sutton plays. Furthermore, Sutton projects to face Mike Jackson, allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per route and eighth-most yards per route run. The Panthers play the highest rate of Cover 3 with a single-high safety in the middle of the field at third-most.

Sutton has a mediocre 20 percent targets per route run rate and 1.44 yards per route run against Cover 3. For context, Sutton's 23 percent targets per route run and 1.31 yards per route run against non-Cover 3 hasn't been much better.

Against single-high safety looks, Sutton garners 19 percent targets per route and 1.40 yards per route run. However, Sutton's volume and production looked better last season, with 26 percent targets per route run and 2.23 yards per route run against single-high safety coverage.

Watch for Bo Nix to hit Sutton on 1-2 big plays. When not under pressure, Nix ranks 13th in deep throw rate (11.7 percent), but lacks efficiency, with a 2 percent completion rate over expected (No. 26).

The Broncos project as a massive 9.5-point favorite against the Panthers, so this might be another establish the run game if it goes as expected. However, Sutton should have an efficient receiving performance versus the Panthers, with opposing receivers averaging 7.8 targets, 5.4 receptions, 91.6 receiving yards, and 20.6 PPR/G over the past five.

Week 8 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Tank Dell vs. Samuel Womack III

This one is painful because of the heavy personal investment in Tank Dell. With Nico Collins healthy in Weeks 1-5, the Texans ranked 12th in pass rate over expected at 3.33 percent.

It's a small sample, but the Texans' pass rate over expected exploded to 15.2 percent (No. 2) in Weeks 6-7. However, they've been establishing the run, with the sixth-highest rush rate (54 percent) during neutral game scripts. That suggests the Texans might pass when expected to run, while still pounding the rock when it's neutral.

The visual below shows the teams with the highest neutral game script rush rate in Weeks 5-7.

Opposing offenses pass at the second-lowest rate over expected at -5 percent, ahead of the Panthers. So they're a mixed bag since the Colts defense allowed 18 PPR/G out wide (No. 14) and 12.6 PPR/G to the slot (No. 16).

Samuel Womack III has sneakily been one of the better cornerbacks, who Dell projects to face. That's evident in Womack giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per route and the second-lowest yards per route run.

Dell ranks 38th in EP/G (10.8) while being brutally inefficient at -2.7 FPOE/G (No. 201). For context, Dell's efficiency regressed, with the eighth-best FPOE/G in 2023 given the massive 15.1 yards per reception and seven touchdowns.

The Colts run the third-highest rate of Cover 3. Unfortunately, Dell averages a 16 percent targets per route rate and 1.05 yards per route run against Cover 3. He hasn't performed much better against non-Cover 3, evidenced by his 19 percent target rate and 1.06 yards per route run.

An optimistic view of Dell involves him garnering a 30 percent targets per route run and 2.63 yards per route run against Cover 3 in 2023. Womack's numbers against tell us to downgrade Dell's Week 8 matchup, though a bounceback should be coming soon, right?

Terry McLaurin vs. Jaylon Johnson

Jaylon Johnson has been one of the better cornerbacks in the league, allowing the 12th-fewest yards per route run and fourth-lowest fantasy points per route. That's who Terry McLaurin faces in Week 8. It's strength against strength since McLaurin ranks 10th in fantasy points per route and yards per route run.

The Bears run zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate, with the seventh-most percentage of Cover 3. McLaurin rocks a 25 percent targets per route run and 2.74 yards per route run versus zone coverage. He's been even more productive against Cover 3, evidenced by his 3.46 yards per route run on a 26.9 percent target rate. The concern would be Jayden Daniels' injury, leading to lower offensive efficiency for the offensive players.

Guess who faced the Panthers, the team that runs the most Cover 3 in Week 7? The Commanders and Marcus Mariota, who filled in respectfully for Daniels. Mariota completed 18 passes on 23 attempts for 203 yards and two scores. In Week 7, Mariota had a -0.6 percent completion rate over expected (No. 25), yet the 11th-highest adjusted yards per attempt (8.33) against the Panthers and their Cover 3 defense.

Mariota will keep the Commanders offense afloat, but the Bears defense is much better than the Panthers. That's evident in the Bears pass defense ranking first in EPA/Play allowed compared to the Panthers at No. 31. Furthermore, the Bears secondary allows the fourth-lowest yards per cover snap with the Panthers allowing the most.

McLaurin has the talent to overcome a tough matchup, but we might want to temper expectations, especially if Daniels misses the game in Week 8.

Tyler Lockett vs. Rasul Douglas

With DK Metcalf battling a knee injury, many might be rolling out Tyler Lockett in Week 8. However, let's examine the data projecting Lockett as a WR/CB downgrade. The Bills passing defense tied for the fourth-fewest yards per cover snap and eighth-best EPA/Play.

Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas have contributed to the Bills' high-end pass defense. Douglas projects to face Lockett, allowing the 20th-fewest yards per route and 19th in fantasy points per route run.

The visual below shows the teams with the passing defense allowing the lowest yards per coverage snap.

The Seahawks will need to rely on the running game to move the ball since the Bills allow the second-most adjusted yards before contact, favoring the running backs. That sometimes occurs when a team like Buffalo uses zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate and the fifth-most Cover 2. The Bills also use the two high safeties at the fourth-highest percentage, tempting teams to run against them.

Lockett garners a 15 percent target rate and produces 1.64 yards per route run against zone coverage. He's a bit better versus man coverage, evidenced by his 24 percent target rate and 1.91 yards per route run. It's a small sample of 32 routes, but Lockett's numbers against Cover 2 look concerning, with a 6 percent target rate and -0.09 yards per route run.

DK Metcalf dominates when facing two high safeties, with a team-high 2.69 yards per route run and a 22 percent target rate. Meanwhile, Lockett is second on the Seahawks with 1.52 yards per route run, ahead of Jake Bobo (1.47), who will fill in for Metcalf against two high safeties.

The Bills and Seahawks have one of the higher game totals at 47 to 47.5, which slightly concerns us in case it's a shootout. There's a case for more volume headed toward Lockett's way if Metcalf misses. However, Lockett projects more as a WR3 with the 34th-ranked EP/G if Metcalf plays since the Seahawks rock the third-highest pass rate (62 percent) in neutral game scripts.

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