The NFL is a passing league: this mantra has been repeated with increasing intensity ever since the middle of the last decade.  The fantasy quarterback has continuously grown as the foundation by which many championship rosters are built.  Instead of being an afterthought to running backs and wide receivers, quarterbacks have increased in prominence with the onset of rules protecting receivers and field generals.

I started this project trying to disprove the theory of the essential quarterback by looking at the fifty best year-long fantasy performances ever. After looking over the list it seemed that the mantra of the crucial quarterback was only smoke and mirrors.  At first glance eight of the top-50 fantasy seasons of all-time are by QB, while 10 were by a wide receiver. This means that 32 of the top 50 fantasy performances of all time were by RBs.

I thought that meshed well with the belief that your best players are RBs and WRs, but then I looked over the last ten years, where I noticed an enormous sea change. Since the end of the 2006 season, 18 of the top 50 best performances in fantasy history occurred. Among those results, four were wide receivers, seven were running backs and SEVEN were quarterbacks.  This is an eye-popping stat because it shows that the game has changed and that the reliability is no longer at the running back position, but is now with the QB.

The Dilemma

Quarterback is the hardest position to scout coming out of college.  The success of teams like the Patriots, and the Packers have been made on the corpses of teams that could never answer the eternal question, how do we get our hands on a franchise quarterback.

With superflex, two-QB, and dynasty formats becoming more common all the time, it’s become even more crucial for fantasy players to make the same kinds of choices when it comes to quarterbacks as NFL franchises.

A failed draft pick in a dynasty league or an incorrect choice for a superflex/2-QB can set a team on a difficult path for success.  Streaming isn’t an option and picks are hard to come by, so a manager must choose wisely if he or she wants to succeed.

What's the secret formula?

The eternal question remains, is there a standard or equation to find a franchise quarterback at the professional level?  Bill Parcells thought he had one, it was a seven-characteristic standard. 1 Be a three-year starter 2. Be a senior in college 3. Graduate from college 4. Start 30 games 5. Win 23 games 6. Post a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio 7. Complete at least 60-percent of passes thrown (2).

Although this is a great starting point, it has been shown time and time again to not be the tell-all to predict QB success or failure at the next level, it is simply a solid guide line.  Influenced by Parcells' work, I set out to scour the web for other projects that have returned results.  What I found, I turned into a complete model that is similar to Parcells, but even more expansive in scope and from the historical data, more accurate.

Each of the following characteristics were looked over for 81 QBs that have played in the last ten years.  My model included all QBs that have played a meaningful number of games as a starter since 2000 (many of these qualities weren’t tested for prior to that year), and all QBs drafted in the fifth round or earlier since 2007 (my best guess as to the start of the true QB age).

Unlike Parcells, I have determined that the completion percentage characteristics and ball speed can be seen as “death knell” stats.  If a quarterback fails to reach a certain criterion in college, that player will almost certainly fail.  Furthermore, I have identified a success criterion as well, Parcells was close, but a higher touchdown to interception ratio is necessary to broadcast future success.  If a QB has this characteristic, their likelihood of success skyrockets.  Finally, games played and won, hand size, Wonderlic score, and round drafted stand out as trends. The better the scores, the more likely you are to succeed.

Over my series of articles seen on RotoBaller, I run down each of these characteristics, explain their importance, and point out which quarterbacks who have yet to play out their rookie contracts are most likely to become superstars.

QB Success/Failure Analysis Series

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