RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! We are getting into the thick of the NFL season as we prepare for Week 7. There are 10 games on the DraftKings main slate and unlike last week's Atlanta/TB matchup there doesn't seem to be a true "slam dunk" game to focus on. Outside of a select few guys, there doesn't appear to be many "no-brainer" individual plays on this slate, so we will have to grind a little harder this week.
I hope you'll find this week's edition of Power Pivots helpful. We are going to dig into some alternative player options that will hopefully help us gain leverage in DraftKings GPP's. This isn't a traditional "picks" article, instead, our goal is to find some overlooked players that we can use to differentiate our lineup in a couple of spots. We don't want to fall victim to the "herd mentality" of just going with the trendy pick of the week. Our focus should be on thinking for ourselves and using players that make sense. Thanks for joining me this week. Let's get to it!
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
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Week 7 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Jared Goff ($6,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 11% *UPDATED: 12%
POWER PIVOT: Kirk Cousins ($6,400)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 2% *UPDATED: 5%
Man...QB is tough this week. No one jumps off the board as a must play and early ownership projections bare that out, as ownership is pretty evenly spread between signal callers. Jared Goff sits atop projections at 10% and he profiles as a really safe play. Goff has a decent floor and upside.
My attention quickly turned to Kirk Cousins when I saw the initial ownership projections for this week. 2%? Really 2%? I do expect this number to go up during the week, but with Cousins priced at just $200 less than Goff, it seems most DFS players are going to be willing to pay the extra salary for the Rams QB. While Cousins might not have quite the floor that Goff has this week, I think he has every bit of the upside.
Minnesota has surprisingly struggled in two areas so far this season...defense and the run game. This has been a recipe for success for Cousins and the Minny passing attack. Cousins has topped 50 pass attempts in two games this year and averages a massive 43.3 pass attempts per game. The Jets pass defense has been middle of the road this year and while they aren't what I would call a great matchup, they certainly aren't one to fear. Cousins has two extremely reliable pass catchers in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs who should have no problem with the Jets secondary.
At first glance, I was a bit concerned that a blowout might hurt Cousins' upside this week, but Vegas has installed the Vikings as just a three-point favorite over New York. Minnesota's defense continues to struggle, ranking 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass, and draw a Jets offense that has shown some pop by scoring 34 points in each of their last two games. So while this isn't a dream matchup for Cousins, there are some things to like about the Minnesota QB if his ownership projection continues to be this minuscule.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Somewhat surprisingly, Baltimore's Joe Flacco has skyrocketed to the top of QB ownership projections at an expected 16%. He's a salary saver at only $5,400 and has a nice matchup against the Saints. Jared Goff is holding fairly steady at 12%. Our highlighted pivot Kirk Cousins has crept up to a projected 5%, but he still offers us tons of leverage in tournaments. While researching our Week 7 TE selection David Njoku, Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield jumped out at me as a great option against this TB defense. Mayfield sits at $5,800 and is projected to be owned at around 8%.
RB CHALK: Todd Gurley II ($9,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 35% *UPDATED: 40%
POWER PIVOT: Frank Gore ($3,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 2% *UPDATED: 4%
I'm not here to talk you out of playing Todd Gurley, instead, I want to help you get him in your lineups. He's probably the closest thing we have to a "no-brainer" in Week 7, as he's an elite player with guaranteed usage on the team with the highest projected point total of the week. However, Gurley is the most expensive player on a slate where it seems value will be hard to find.
I'm really intrigued by the idea of pairing Gurley with Frank Gore this week. Gore sits on the other end of the salary spectrum at a mere $3,800. We can pair these two together at RB for a combined $13.6k and lock in tons of points in the process. I hate using the word "guaranteed" so I won't, but I think this pairing gives us a great chance to grab at least a combined 40 points from our two RB slots.
Gore lacks upside and will need a TD or two to post a tournament-winning score, but I like the floor he offers at just $3.8k. We have seen his carries increase each game over the last four weeks, with a season-high 15 last week. Gore isn't simply eating up touches, he has actually run well and is averaging an eye-opening 4.9 yards per carry. Price and usage are two reasons to like Gore this week, but there is also a third...matchup.
Gore draws a dream matchup against a Detroit Lions defense that has been getting destroyed on the ground this season and ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed per carry. Brock Osweiler will draw the start for Miami again this week, so Head Coach Adam Gase should try to keep things on the ground to both hide Osweiller and take advantage of Detroit's weakness. If there are any goal-line opportunities, I look for Gore to receive the bulk of them, as Kenyan Drake almost cost the Dolphins a game last week with a goal-line fumble against Chicago. Gore isn't a horrible standalone play, but I strongly prefer pairing him with Gurley, rather than using him as a one-off.
SATURDAY UPDATE: There's been some blockbuster action at RB since this article was originally posted. Cleveland traded their workhorse RB Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville Friday afternoon. This paves the way to playing time for explosive rookie Nick Chubb. Chubb is priced at just $3,600 and has soared up the ownership projection model to 10%. He will be much higher owned than that come Sunday. There are some question marks there, as we have to wonder how much work Cleveland's other RB Duke Johnson will get. The Chubb news throws a wrench in our highlighted Gurley/Gore stack, as now tons of DFS players will use this strategy to pair Chubb with Gurley. The other notable news story is in Detroit, where Theo Riddick has been ruled out. This brings Kerryon Johnson and his cheap $4,500 price tag into the RB conversation. Johnson has shown tons of talent...when he gets the ball. The Lions staff has stubbornly stuck with an RBBC, using LeGarrette Blount, Johnson, and Riddick in fairly equal doses. We have to assume that Blount will continue to see his usual amount of early-down and goal-line work and hope that Johnson will pick up Riddick's pass game work. To further complicate the situation, Ameer Abdullah is lurking on the Lions roster with a chance to pick up some of Riddick's workload. Bottom line...we all know Johnson is talented and should be getting more touches, but I don't know that we can count on it. If you want to pivot away from Johnson, I really like Chicago RB Tarik Cohen at $5,100. He's seen a huge boost in usage over the Bears' last two games and draws a possible shootout matchup with New England.
WR CHALK: Robert Woods ($7,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 25% *UPDATED: 33%
POWER PIVOT: Marquise Goodwin ($4,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 2% *UPDATED: 6%
With the news that Cooper Kupp will miss Sunday's game against San Fransico, DFS players are flocking to Rams WR Robert Woods. He currently trails only Adam Thielen in ownership projections at 25%. Woods is a terrific option and should see plenty of opportunities with Kupp unavailable. I agree that Woods is a nice play this week, but I think there is also a nice pivot option on the other side of this matchup.
San Fran's Marquise Goodwin was heavily talked about in the weeks and months leading up to the 2018 season. Unfortunately, the injury bug has derailed the Niners' season. With star QB Jimmy Garoppolo going down with an ACL tear and Goodwin himself battling hamstring and thigh injuries all season, it's an understatement to say that things haven't gone as planned for San Fran or Goodwin this season.
Goodwin finally returned to the Niners lineup last week against Green Bay. The speedster looked healthy in an explosive performance on Monday Night Football when he lit the Packers up for 126 yards and 2 TDs on four catches. The word I used in the previous sentence perfectly describes Goodwin: explosive.
He is a boom-or-bust option this week against the LA Rams. The matchup isn't great on paper, as the Rams have very respectable statistics when it comes to defending the pass. However, the Rams secondary isn't invulnerable and Goodwin has the type of speed and talent to beat any matchup. It should be a nice game script for him as well, with the 49ers more than likely playing from behind throughout the game and being forced to throw the ball. I don't recommend him for anything other than GPP's because he does have a scary-low floor, but the combination of his upside, price, and low ownership make him a very intriguing tournament option.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Woods continues to be the go-to WR this week and has climbed past Adam Thielen to become the most popular option. He is currently projected to garner a massive 33% ownership share. Our pivot Marquise Goodwin has gained a little steam and is up to a projected 6% from 2% earlier in the week. I actually like pairing these two together to differentiate Woods lineups and gain exposure to both sides of this matchup. Big injury news with the New York Jets receiving corps. Quincy Enunwa has been ruled out and Terrelle Pryor was listed as doubtful on Friday. This brings both Jermaine Kearse ($4,100) and Robby Anderson ($4,500) squarely into play for the depleted Jets against a Minnesota defense that ranks 29th in yards allowed per pass. I prefer Kearse to Anderson, as Kearse should mostly play from the slot this week. I love the idea of a Cousins/Thielen/Kearse game stack. I want to also mention Bears WR Taylor Gabriel at $4,700 who is currently projected to be 5% owned. Gabriel has topped 100 yards receiving in his last two games and brings some nice upside to the table at low ownership and a sub-$5k price.
TE CHALK: David Njoku ($4,200)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 16% *UPDATED: 22%
POWER PIVOT: None
Projected DraftKings Ownership: -
Well...this is a Power Pivots first. I can't recommend an alternative to David Njoku this week, because I've been driving the "Team Njoku" bandwagon for the last few weeks. Those of you that read last week's column know that I highlighted Njoku as my favorite TE pivot of Week 6. He came through for us, catching seven passes for 55 yards and a TD. I'm expecting an even better performance from the second-year player in his upcoming game against the Tampa Bay Bucs.
I said last week that I haven't decided yet if Njoku is good at football. My statement this week is that it might not matter! Since Baker Mayfield stepped into the Browns starting lineup, Njoku is receiving so many targets that it's really difficult for him to "fail". His usage has increased each week, with growing target totals of 7-10-12 since Mayfield's first start. To find another TE with similar usage numbers we have to go all the way to the top of the salary scale to Zach Ertz at $7,100.
Njoku draws an absolute "HULK SMASH" matchup against Tampa Bay this week. The Bucs rank dead last in the NFL in both pass DVOA and yards allowed per pass. They have also been destroyed specifically by the TE position in their last three games, allowing 9 catches for 71 yards and a TD to Austin Hooper last week, 2/86/1 to Trey Burton in Week 4, and 4/112/1 to Vance McDonald in Week 3. As I said earlier..."HULK SMASH" spot.
Njoku's price is up to $4,200 from last week's $3,800, but we are still getting tons of value at this price point. This week is sort of a perfect storm of price, opportunity, and matchup for Njoku. I'm never afraid to play "good chalk" and that's the situation we are in at TE this week. With the exception of a few game-specific stacks, I will have him in my lineups across the board.
*SATURDAY UPDATE: It seems that I'm not the only person that is all-in on David Njoku this week. His projected ownership has continued to rise and now sits at 22%, making him far and away the most popular TE option this week. I'm personally sticking with Njoku, who I still expect to "HULK SMASH" in this spot, but there are some other legit options. You can never go wrong with Zach Ertz, but you must be willing to pay a hefty $7,100 price this week. Eric Ebron and George Kittle both come in as high upside plays. The last TE I'll mention is the one opposite Njoku this week. Tampa's O.J. Howard at $3,600 doesn't have much of a floor, but could potentially rack up some fantasy points against a Cleveland defense that has struggled with TE's this season.
D/ST CHALK: Indianapolis Colts ($3,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 12% *UPDATED: 8%
POWER PIVOT: Houston Texans ($2,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 3% *UPDATED: 6%
I should change the weekly heading of this section from D/ST CHALK, to ___________ VS. BUFFALO BILLS, because every week the chalk defensive team is whoever is playing the Bills. All jokes aside, it's hard to argue with the strategy of targeting such a weak offense.
While the Colts draw the dream matchup of the week, the Houston Texans head to Jacksonville to face a struggling Jaguars team. The Jags have dropped two straight and have only scored 21 combined points in those outings. Blake Bortles is back to being...well...the real Blake Bortles. With Leonard Fournette expected to miss yet another game and Bortles in a slump, Jacksonville's offense should sputter again in Week 7.
The Texans defense seems to be heading in the right direction. A healthy Jadeveon Clowney makes a huge difference for the Houston pass rush and he was constantly in the Buffalo backfield last week. The Texans are stout against the run...standing 2nd in DVOA vs. the rush and 3rd in yards allowed per carry. The Jags won't be able to run the ball with T.J. Yeldon, which should force more Blake Bortles drop-backs. That's good news for this Houston defense.
SATURDAY UPDATE: The Colts ownership projection has dropped to 8% and the Philadelphia Eagles ($2,600) are now projected to be the most popular defensive unit at 14%. Houston's projected ownership has doubled since this column was originally posted and I still like them against Blake Bortles. The Detroit Lions have also gained some traction at their reduced $2,400 price tag against a Brock Osweiler-led Dolphins squad. While I usually look to save salary at DEF/ST one interesting contrarian option this week is going all the way to the top of the salary scale and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Houston offensive line has struggled to protect Deshaun Watson and he has been forced to take numerous sacks this season.
