RADIO
Two months are (basically) in the books and we are officially off of the rails here. Mike Trout is injured, Bryce Harper’s suspended and every single pitcher is just one sneeze away from a DL stint. One thing I notice with pieces like these are that the same arms seem to hover around the ownership cutoff, but it’s a waste of everyone’s time for me to just drone on about the same guys over and over with updated stats, so let’s see if we can pare this down just a tad.
Here are the bottom-five teams in wOBA over the last 14 days: Phillies (.252), Padres (.270), Mariners (.271), Giants (.273) and Cardinals (.282). Happy streaming, y'all.
For our purposes, we’re going to use Yahoo ownership levels and try to cut things off around 35%.
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Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Targets
Trevor Bauer - (CLE, SP/RP): 36% owned
Bauer went up against an Oakland team that was tied for the league lead over the past two weeks with a 27.5 percent strikeout rate and promptly struck out the side in the first, fifth, sixth and seventh innings en route to a career-high 14 K’s. In true Bauer fashion, he still tumbled a bit in between those frames and allowed three earned runs, but his 6.00 ERA now houses a 3.97 FIP and 3.03 xFIP thanks to a ridiculous 11.53 K/9. His inconsistency with command is what leads to such ridiculous discrepancies in his metrics -- think Michael Pineda last season -- but he’s worth grabbing with a start against the Royals in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium on tap next.
Brad Peacock - (HOU, SP/RP): 34% owned
Peacock’s overall line from his most recent start wasn’t great -- four earned over 4 2/3 innings -- but to those that didn’t a chance to watch the game we say this: He actually held Minnesota scoreless through four innings and threw 54-of-78 pitches for strikes in a well-deserved eight-strikeout affair. He should be good for roughly 90 pitches and a full start his next time on the hill against the Rangers on June 4, with 10-K potential given Texas’ spot in the top 10 with whiffs over the last two weeks (22.7 percent).
Junior Guerra - (MIL, SP): 30% owned
Guerra returned from the disabled list and allowed just one run -- a Jake Lamb homer -- over 5 2/3 solid innings against a strong D-backs lineup on May 26. He’ll face the Mets in New York today (May 31) before a home start against the Giants, and while chasing his 2016 stats will only end in heartbreak, the 32-year-old is more than capable of being above-average here. I realize (and actively participate in) the narrative of Guerra being so overrated due to his 2016 stats can turn into "don't even bother" but that would be a mistake -- just don't expect a sub-3.00 ERA.
German Marquez - (COL, SP): 25% owned
Marquez over his last four starts: 24 2/3 IP, 4-0 record, 1.46 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 22 K’s. His next opponent is San Diego, whose last two weeks has yielded a sad .215/.285/.322 slash line with the second-worst wOBA (.270) in the Majors. Honestly, you don’t need to know more than that. This is the same reason that Tyler Anderson (who, sadly, got shelled last night) and Tyler Chatwood are both strong plays in the upcoming days.
Dinelson Lamet - (SD, SP): 17% owned
So, directly after crapping on the Padres’ ability to provide run support…let’s talk a Padre pitcher! Lamet has definitely translated his swing-and-miss stuff from the Minors (10.1 career K/9) into big-league action, as he rung up eight Cubbies in just five innings, which mirrored his Major League debut on May 25 against the Mets. With 16 K’s and a 2-0 record in just 10 innings of work, this 24-year-old will be worth watching in his next start on June 6 at Arizona.
Jimmy Nelson - (MIL, SP): 13% owned
Nelson has been here but he deserves more love than this. I realize his inconsistency over the years has made him difficult to trust, but he allegedly tweaked something in the delivery of his curveball that has made it much more effective lately. Given that his strikeout rate has risen from 18.3 percent in April to 27.4 percent in May, I’m going to believe him. He’ll be tested against the Dodgers at home in his next time out before a home start against the Giants.
Robert Gsellman - (NYM, SP): 7% owned
Gsellman is a bit of an odd study right now, as he’s fared better as a starter in his last two outings but will likely be on the outside looking in when Steven Matz and Seth Lugo return. The New York Post recently cited a Mets’ official as saying Gsellman could be like Jeurys Familia with his sinker and that the organization believes that the 23-year-old has what it takes to close. While there are many hurdles to this actually coming to fruition, it may be enough to consider adding him over some other low-owned player. For now, just buy him for his June 3 start against Pittsburgh due to the seven innings of one-run ball that he just twirled on May 29 against Milwaukee.
Eric Skoglund - (KC, SP): 3% owned
Skoglund outdueled some guy named Justin Verlander to win his Major League debut on Tuesday night, scattering two hits and a walk while striking out five over 6 1/3 scoreless frames. The 24-year-old southpaw had rung up 40 Triple-A hitters alongside an unimpressive 4.53 ERA (4.19 FIP) over 43 2/3 innings (eight starts) there, but the appeal here is that he’s a grounder-heavy portsider who can miss bats at a useful rate. His next start will be a challenge -- he gets Houston at home on June 5 -- but those looking for cheap injury replacements with some real upside, here you go.
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