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Justin Carter evaluates Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Tyrod Taylor as a sleeper and breakout candidate in 2020, making him an undervalued QB in Fantasy Football drafts.
It's probably been a while since you've thought about Tyrod Taylor.
Sure, he's currently set to open 2020 as an NFL starting quarterback for the Los Angeles Chargers, but I'm sure you've done countless drafts where you had the option of adding Taylor to your fantasy squad and you decided to go with someone else instead.
That was a bad decision. Taylor's got QB2 upside this year, and you can draft him extremely late. It's time to board the "Tyrod Taylor is a fine option in 2020" train.
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Past History
Let's start by revisiting Tyrod Taylor's past in Buffalo.
Taylor was the starting quarterback in Buffalo for three seasons from 2015-2017. Over that span, he completed 62.6 percent of his passes with 51 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. He also rushed for 14 touchdowns in that time.
One of Taylor's most notable traits in Buffalo was he didn't turn the football over. His interception rate was under two percent each year, including a league-leading one percent rate in 2017.
To put that into perspective, his 1.0 percent rate would have tied him with Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson for second-best in the NFL last season, and his worst Buffalo season would have ranked as the 11th-best mark last year. The Bills version of Taylor didn't throw the ball to the opponent much.
During that span, Taylor had completion percentages of 63.7, 61.7, and 62.6. The best of those numbers would only rank as the 18th-highest in the league last year, while the worst would have ranked 26th. Taylor's tendency to throw incompletions is a concern, but it's mitigated somewhat by his ability to gain yardage on the ground. Current Bills QB Josh Allen had the lowest completion percentage among qualifying passers last season, but his ability to throw the deep ball and to make some things happen on the ground made him a viable fantasy option.
That's what Taylor was in Buffalo when it comes to fantasy: viable. He wasn't an elite fantasy play, but per Pro Football Reference, here are his three seasons in Buffalo, sorted by position rank:
One QB1 finish and two QB2 finishes sum that up. Taylor's ability to keep the ball away from the other team and extend plays on the ground helped him to solid fantasy finishes.
The other thing about Taylor is his deep ball. In 2016, when he was the fantasy QB8, Taylor was sixth in the NFL in average intended air yards, but just 13th in average intended air yards. In other words, Taylor threw deep a lot, but he wasn't necessarily accurate on those deep looks.
For as much as people talk about former Chargers QB Philip Rivers as a gunslinger, his average intended and completed air yards have ranked mid-pack for the past few years. Taylor might actually be better for stretching the field than Rivers was, provided he can improve his accuracy on the long shots.
Taylor's New Supporting Cast
What's one way Taylor's accuracy can go up? Well, he has significantly better weapons around him in Los Angeles now than he did in Buffalo.
Four important names spring to mind: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams at wide receiver, Hunter Henry at tight end, and Austin Ekeler at running back. If these four can stay relatively healthy, Taylor's looking at the best supporting cast of his career.
Let's compare this to 2017, which was Taylor's worst fantasy year with Buffalo. The leading receivers on that team in terms of both receptions and yards were the running back and tight end. RB LeSean McCoy caught 59 passes for 448 yards. TE Charles Clay caught 49 for 558, which made him the team's leader in receiving yards. Beyond that, Taylor threw to such great wideouts as Deonte Thompson, Zay Jones, and Jordan Matthews. Heck, Andre Holmes led the team in receiving touchdowns with three despite catching just 13 passes.
In L.A., he doesn't have that problem. Keenan Allen has three 1000-yard seasons in a row. Mike Williams is coming off his first 1000-yard season and caught 10 touchdowns in 2018. Hunter Henry was almost healthy last year, playing 12 games and finishing with 55 catches for 652 yards and five touchdowns. And Ekeler had 993 receiving yards.
2020 will teach us a lot about Taylor. Was the reason he never broke out even more in Buffalo because he had a weak supporting cast, or is Taylor's style of play not conducive to creating a strong performance from the players around him? We know how good this group that'll be on the field with him this season can be, which means Taylor's going to get every opportunity to show that he can take his play up a notch.
When he didn't have strong players around him, the QB's fantasy finishes were still really good. I'm willing to bet the plays made by his new, talented receivers will lead to improved numbers for Taylor.
Should We Worry About Justin Herbert?
The answer to this question is yes! We should definitely worry about rookie Justin Herbert taking over for Taylor, but I don't think we need to worry as much as we would have to worry in a normal year.
With so much of the offseason activities messed up by COVID-19 along with there being no preseason games, it's going to be tough for any rookie quarterback to get up to speed this year. Some teams like the Bengals won't have a choice but to throw their first-year passer (Joe Burrow) to the wolves, but the Chargers do have a choice. They've got a capable starter in Tyrod Taylor, a team that could contend for a Wild Card spot in the new expanded playoff format, and a rookie who doesn't have the same expectations on him that Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa will have on them.
If the Chargers wind up out of contention late in the year, they'll turn to Herbert. But Taylor's not your plan A at quarterback. At his ADP, he's your plan B or plan C. He is someone who you can stream during the season when he's playing, and someone who can deliver steady results for fantasy managers in two-QB leagues.
And hey, if Herbert takes over Week 14 or something, you can always pivot and grab him off waivers as a replacement for Taylor. This is unless you're in a really deep league where Herbert is already rostered.
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