X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Tight End Fallers For Fantasy Football - ADP Analysis Before Training Camps

Michael Mayer - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Antonio Losada looks at the average draft position (ADP) variation of tight ends to assess their situations for fantasy football. Irv Smith, Mike Gesicki, and Michael Mayer are profiled.

Ah, our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position in which a player is drafted across multiple fantasy football drafts. It can be considered the price you must pay to draft and secure a player for your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is being selected early in drafts, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first few rounds if you truly want him.

However, it's worth noting that low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each fantasy GM has their own strategy and values players differently depending on what is most important for them in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs provide a useful gauge of the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against. With free agency and the draft finalized and only a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to examine how ADPs have changed over the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I will regularly highlight players at each skill position who have experienced significant fluctuations in their ADP since our last check. I'll be using data from FFPC drafts.

Editor's Note: Discover RotoBaller’s top Fantasy Football Sleepers to gain an edge in your drafts. Our free who to draft tool and expert picks spotlight undervalued players, breakout candidates, and late-round gems for all league formats.

 

Fantasy Football Tight End - ADP Fallers

 

Mike Gesicki, New England Patriots

The freshest New England Patriots tight end has been making notable strides during practice. In a recent session, he joined the receivers, indicating that his impact in games may come primarily from a receiving standpoint.

While Hunter Henry is expected to lead the Patriots tight ends in terms of snaps, Gesicki's versatility makes him a viable option as a big target in the middle of the field. That doesn't mean he will be anything remotely close to the team's new WR1 (that's JuJu Smith-Schuster for you), but Gesicki should at last gain--or better said, not lose--some ground when it comes to targets and looks from QB Mac Jones.

During OTAs, Gesicki and Henry have been seen on the field together, showcasing their compatibility and offering big-body looks to Jones, who has "expressed excitement" about working with Gesicki. Gesicki's fantasy upside is going to be there at least until the ball gets rolling in Week 1. Only when the season has started will we get a clear idea of where things stand in the receivers/tight-ends pecking order. Knowing what we know now, midway through June, the ADP fall is only partially understood.

Is Gesicki worth drafting at that position, though? I don't think so even if the ADP keeps falling, it would really need to tank. In the past five years, players ranking from 140-to-160 in PPR leagues have averaged 9.3 FPPG. Gesicki put up 5.8 FPPG last season and the Patriots won't offer the best environment for him to thrive. For now, I'd pass.

 

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

Rookie Mike Mayer is getting into the NFL as a second-round draftee in this year's draft. Only Dalton Kincaid (23rd overall) and Sam LaPorta (34th, one pick before Mayer) was taken before the Notre Dame product.

Truth be told, even with Darren Waller getting traded away from Las Vegas to New York, Mayer will still need to fight for targets against veterans Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard. The ADP dropped at the end of May but has now stabilized a bit and that's surely because of some reports coming out of Raiders camp throughout May.

One week from June, Mayer was labeled as the borderline TE2 of the team, only a hair below Hooper in the pecking order on the positional depth chart. That said, Mayer is seen as the best tight end of the class by many. He is also considered a good blocker and good receiver, which should give him more snaps in the long run as he adds multiple dimensions to the game.

In the past five years, among rookie tight ends, only three scored more than 98 PPR points through their freshman seasons. Just two of those three finished the year ranking better than 154th OVR in PPR leagues. Currently boasting an ADP around the 150th-OVR pick, I'd strongly recommend fading Mayer as he doesn't seem like a very valuable pick at that price.

 

Irv Smith Jr., Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals inked Smith to a deal earlier this offseason and instantly named him the TE1 of the organization. Is that bad? No. Could it be better? Of course, mostly because the Bengals are absolutely loaded at the wide receiver position with three impressive wideouts on the roster. Not to mention the presence of Joe Mixon (for now, as he might get suspended) in the backfield and all of the touches he can potentially receive.

Smith was reportedly named the TE1 back at the start of May and we haven't heard about the tight-end room since. Obviously, it would take a massive leap from Drew Sample to jump over him in the pecking order, but that's very unlikely, all things considered.

If you look closely, the ADP fall is barely noticeable. It's smaller than a full round in 12-team leagues so it's more about the trend fluctuating while on its way to stabilizing rather than any other crazy development taking place. Irv Smith finished between the top 25-to-45 in his three seasons in Minnesota, but he's also coming off his worst one, having only played eight games due to injury in 2022. He reached TE1-level points just once in 2022 (Week 2). I'd advise making Smith a top WW target rather than a late-rounder in drafts.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF