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Over the next week, RotoBaller analysts will give you a sneak peak into our consensus Premium Tiered Rankings at each position with some in-depth analysis to help you prepare for your drafts. We already looked at catchers, first base, second base, third base and shortstop, and today we tackle outfielders. The rest of our tiered rankings can be found in our 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit & Cheat Sheet.
Tiered rankings are critical for fantasy baseball drafts. Faced with the decision of drafting player X or Y at outfield, you need to have an idea of how those players stack up against each other. If they are in the same tier, you can wait on the more costly player, and draft the cheaper player instead. Knowing which tiers players are in will help avoid overpaying and also help spend your draft dollars or picks as wisely as possible.
Tiered Outfield Rankings Analysis
Outfield is the most diverse position in fantasy as far as skill sets are concerned. Some of baseball’s most prolific power hitters patrol the outfield, while others burn up the base paths regularly. Finding the proper balance in your outfield is key to winning a fantasy championship, so be sure you have a strategy in mind before drafting. Below I’ll provide a sneak peek into the fourth tier of RotoBaller’s Premium Tiered Rankings, which should help you make the right decision come draft day.
*Note: All round estimates are based on 10 or 12-team leagues.
Tier 4 - Lower Starters
These are the players you can wait on and still get decent value from. You’ll be able to pick them up far later in most drafts than the top-tier players, so don’t be afraid to wait a little bit.
The Cuban dynamo Rusney Castillo is currently one of the highest risk players to draft this high, as no one is sure what his role will be come Opening Day. The Red Sox may trade either Mookie Betts or Shane Victorino before the season begins, but unfortunately you can’t count on that until it happens. Castillo has the talent to be a 20/20 guy if given an everyday role, so he definitely makes for a valid dice roll, just temper your expectations and have a contingency place in plan in case he becomes Boston’s fourth outfielder. Keep an eye on the developments of Spring Training—if he officially wins a starting job, he could make for a decent 14th-16th round pick. If he doesn’t, reach no further than the 20th round.
I wrote about Josh Harrison in my breakdown of the third base position, but I’ll emphasize how high I am on him again here. He finally broke out last year and earned a full-time spot in the Pirates lineup, and I expect him to carry that success into 2015. He should be able to hit .300 again, and his floor is 10 homers and 15 steals if he stays healthy. The sky is the limit for this talented youngster, who could be an exceptional value pick in the 13th-14th round.
The best way to approach Wil Myers is with a pros and cons list. His rookie season in 2013 proved that the hype that followed him as a prospect was well-founded, but he took leaps backwards in 2014. A broken wrist and dismal play dropped his stock enough to where he was dealt to the Padres in the offseason. So what do you place faith in—the raw ability and promise he showed in 2013, or the transition to a pitcher’s park and troubling injury/play in 2014? I’m not rolling the dice this year any earlier than the 18th round.
Gregory Polanco is the least established of the talented triumvirate in the Pittsburgh outfield, but he showed just how valuable he can be once he was called up in 2014. He ran out of gas in August and September, but he should be able to build upon the promise he showed last year. The batting average may not be there just yet, but he should have no problem putting up double-digit homers and at least 20 steals.
I have already discussed Mark Trumbo in my first base tiered rankings, and his appeal is relatively simple to understand. Assuming he stays healthy, he’ll hit 30 bombs and have the RBI totals that come with that power. High strikeout rates and low walk rates will keep his average low, but he should provide enough value for an 11th-13th round pick.
Oswaldo Arcia showed great promise in 2014, hitting 20 home runs in just over 400 plate appearances. As a 23-year-old, his swing is still unrefined, and he tends to strike out a healthy amount. His batting average probably won’t break .250 and he doesn’t have much speed to speak of, but he has the raw power to make up for both. Expect an overall improvement on his 2014 numbers, and invest with confidence in the later rounds (18 or later).
Marcell Ozuna’s numbers may directly reflect Arcia’s, as he has the raw power to smack 25 or more homers if he stays healthy for a full season. Like Arcia, speed is not a big part of his game, and I don’t expect his batting average to get any higher than .260. However, hitting in the middle of an increasingly talented Marlins lineup should afford him plenty of opportunities for runs and RBIs. Start looking at him in the 14th round.
Charlie Blackmon made his name in the beginning of 2014, and while he wasn’t as impressive after the end of May he still provided excellent value the rest of the year. It’s likely that his numbers will regress as a whole in 2015, but they will not fall off of a cliff by any means. Playing his home games at Coors Field, where he was exceptional last year, should still allow him to hit 15 or more homers and keep his batting average above .280. He has above average speed, and should have no problem swiping 25 bags if he keeps his batting average up. The notoriety he gained last season may inflate his draft price, so be careful not to overpay. If someone wants to take him any earlier than the 9th round, let them.
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