Three Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for Rookies

Quincy Milton makes bold predictions for three fantasy rookies in 2024.

Every fantasy football season, several surprise players leave us scratching our heads at the end of the season. While some breakouts are predictable, many players really do "come out of nowhere."

Rookie breakouts are especially hard to predict. We know who has talent, but we do not know who has the work ethic and acumen to make a difference in the NFL. Additionally, rookie have no NFL tape to go off of and can be volatile due to their need to learn on the fly.

Rookies are great players to make bold predictions on because of all the unknowns surrounding them. These predictions may seem impossible, but there is always an explanation as to why they may come true. Let's dive in and see what crazy predictions could realistically pan out in 2024.

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Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. Will Finish as a Top-20 WR

In 2023, only one rookie wide receiver (Puka Nacua) finished inside the top 20 wide receivers in fantasy. The 2024 wide receiver class is a different breed, and multiple players have a chance to have a serious fantasy impact immediately.

Brian Thomas Jr. is an athletic freak who was selected by the Jaguars with the 23rd pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Playing as the No. 2 wide receiver opposite Malik Nabers for LSU in 2023, Thomas caught an outrageous 17 touchdown passes to go along with 1,177 receiving yards.

Thomas may take a month to really get going, but he should immediately step in as the most talented wide receiver for the Jaguars. This kid has 4.33 speed in a 6-foot-3, 209-pound frame.

Thomas figures to step into the Calvin Ridley role in this offense. Ridley finished as the WR18 in 2023 but it was a bumpy ride. You were likely only happy with 50% or less of Ridley's games in 2023 but there is more than meets the eye here.

Ridley and quarterback Trevor Lawrence were not on the same page in 2023. Whether it had to do with Lawrence's injuries throughout the season, a lack of chemistry, or both, these two just did not seem to connect. Even so, Ridley scored eight touchdowns in 2023. He also had 25 red zone targets which was good for third in the league. Unfortunately, Ridley's 64.7% catchable target rate was 82nd in the league. If you watch the tape, the amount of near misses in and around the end zone between Lawrence and Ridley is astounding.

It was a great Hamilton bait to force Trevor put it in an impossible spot, but Lawrence MADE the impossible throw for what should have been a completed TD (& he did it twice).

That was a bonafide drop, which Ridley then followed up another drop on his next target #Jaguars https://t.co/q5ypdVg6wm pic.twitter.com/s4szObR5bj

— 𝕋𝕣𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕤 🅓. ℍ𝕠𝕝𝕞𝕖𝕤 (@TravisDHolmes) June 19, 2024

If Lawrence steps into the stratosphere as a quarterback that most expected him to out of college and displays immediate chemistry with Thomas, then this will be a fun ride. Veterans Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk round out this receiving core, but Thomas has the potential to demand more looks than either of those two very early on in the season.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders

Prediction: Jayden Daniels Will Finish as a Top-5 QB

12 years after Robert Griffin III dazzled Washington fans with a spectacular rookie season, our nation's capital will enjoy that kind of show once again.

Generally, good fantasy quarterbacks are those who can use their legs at an elite level. However, the Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson-level quarterbacks can both run and throw. Daniels has those traits, much like RG3 did when he entered the league in 2012 with this same franchise.

#Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels having a similar top speed to Tyreek Hill is INSANE⚡️#RaiseHail #GoFins pic.twitter.com/jVv16cFhTD

— Football Forever (@fballforeverhq) July 18, 2024

Daniels has a slighter frame than Griffin did coming into the league, but he has similar speed and figures to be used in a similar way. In 15 games, RG3 threw for 3,200 yards and 20 passing touchdowns while adding 815 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground during his rookie season. Those numbers were good enough for QB5 in fantasy, and Daniels should be able to match those numbers in 2024.

Daniels enters a Commanders' offense with a struggling offensive line but talent everywhere else. With wide receivers Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Luke McCaffrey, along with running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, in the fold, Daniels should have some help. Also consider that this offense is led by offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. In the Kingsbury offense, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray finished as the QB6 in 2019.

Daniels' best trait will be his legs, but he is a talented passer. Daniels supported elite seasons for both Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. in 2023 en route to a Heisman Trophy win. Daniels is currently being drafted around QB16 but he could be a league winner.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers

Prediction: MarShawn Lloyd will finish as a top-24 RB

Don't look now, but rookie MarShawn Lloyd is listed as the No. 2 running back on the Green Bay Packers roster. A third-round pick in April's draft, Lloyd is an extremely large and fast running back who should be an immediate upgrade over previous backup A.J. Dillon.

Packers head coach Matt LaFleur generally likes to deploy multiple running backs. Dillon has enjoyed success in the past alongside previous starter Aaron Jones. Jones finished as the RB10 and RB9 in 2021 and 2022, respectively. In those same seasons, Dillon finished as the RB23 and RB26.  If Lloyd sees the approximately 185 carries and 40 targets that Dillon did during those years, then there is no reason he will do as much, if not more, with those opportunities than Dillon did.

The Packers brought in former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs to lead their backfield in 2024. Outside of his stellar 2022, Jacobs has been a relatively inefficient running back throughout his career. Jacobs has thrived on volume, but he does not project to receive an otherworldly workload in 2024.

Given Jacobs' struggles in 2023, it stands to reason that Lloyd may have a chance to considerably eat into Jacobs' workload should those struggles continue. If Lloyd sees more than the typical Packers backup share of the running back pie, then there is no doubt he will finish in the top 24. Even if Jacobs can hold him off, Lloyd should be a valuable asset for your team.

I only believe offseason coachspeak/hype when it confirms my priors. Part 69,420.

Via The Athletic: pic.twitter.com/b8077DIV0i

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) July 15, 2024

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