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Kyle McCarthy's four fantasy football bold predictions for Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season. Expert predictions for Patrick Mahomes, Javonte Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., Drake London.
It's time for another round of bold predictions for Week 6 of the NFL season. We did fairly well on our Week 5 Bold Predictions, going 3-for-5 in total. Sam Darnold, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, and Stefon Diggs delivered for us, and we'll look to follow it up again this week.
We'll perhaps look to shoot for the moon and be bolder in our claims this week. There are multiple projected shootouts on deck this week, with four games set with a total of at least 49.5 points, the most of any week so far.
In this article, we will dive into five of my boldest predictions for Week 6. So, let's look at my predictions for Patrick Mahomes, Javonte Williams, Brian Thomas Jr., and Drake London.
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Patrick Mahomes Finishes as the Overall QB1
Mahomes and the Chiefs face arguably the best team in football in the Detroit Lions at home on Sunday Night Football in Week 6. This game has the highest total of the week at 52.5 points, so fireworks are expected on both sides.
The Detroit defense has been a pass-funnel type of defense for the last few years, with a dominant run defense. While not quite as overpowering this season, it's still played out that way as it has the seventh-best rushing success rate on defense through five games (36.3%). And it again is among the most disruptive run defenses, owning the sixth-highest Stuff% at 20.2% (percentage of run plays resulting in no gain or loss).
Through five games, Detroit's secondary has already been a bit leaky, ranking fifth-worst in Explosive Pass% and allowing 10 passing touchdowns. In addition, it is dealing with multiple injuries on the back end and had some ugly moments in the Week 5 win over the Jake Browning-led Bengals.
Mahomes has played at an MVP level this season despite a ragtag skill-position group. But the return and presence of Xavier Worthy open up everything. The Chiefs have now scored 28 or more points in back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 14 and 15 of the 2022 season, when they posted 34 and 30 points, respectively. They'll have a chance to do it in three consecutive games for the first time since the final three games of the 2021 season.
The Lions have been a juggernaut offensively since their bludgeoning in Week 1. And the Chiefs defense has not been up to the standard of previous years. Detroit should move the ball at will and force Mahomes and the pass-happiest team in the NFL to air it out.
Plus, Mahomes is scrambling at a career high rate (10.38%, fourth highest in the NFL) and has produced more fantasy value with his legs this season. Mahomes is already QB3 on the season, and it could be a vintage Mahomes performance where he goes for 350+ total yards with 3+ TDs in a statement win.
Javonte Williams Fails to Reach 50 Rushing Yards
Williams has excelled as the lead back in Dallas, ranking as RB3 in total PPR points on the season. He's been one of the most efficient volume runners in the league, averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 79 rush attempts. The only running back with as many or more carries and a higher yards-per-carry average is Travis Etienne Jr. (5.8).
The Cowboys face the Panthers in Week 6, who have been stingy against the run lately. Over the past three weeks, they have had the third-highest Stuff% (55.4%) on early downs, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Dallas employs a balanced run scheme, with 48 zone runs and 56 gap runs this season. Since Week 3, Carolina has defended both effectively, ranking third in success rate against zone runs (30%) and seventh against gap runs (41.7%).
Carolina dominated Miami at the point of attack in Week 5, and we're expecting a rollover performance here in Week 6 to provide Williams' fantasy managers with his first dud of the year. Williams has no question looked better this year and could make this prediction look foolish if Dallas can build a lead, but we'll buy into some steps that this Carolina defense may be taking after being the worst in football in 2024.
Brian Thomas Jr. Goes For 150+ Receiving Yards And TD
Thomas is primed for his nuclear game of the season. He gets a banged-up Seattle defense in Week 6 that was just lit on fire by Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka. And Thomas has already shown positive signs over the last few weeks. The second-year WR and Trevor Lawrence may finally be starting to get into a groove as they learn the ins and outs of Liam Coen's offense.
Since Week 3, Thomas has led the team in first-read target rate (24.6%) and is averaging 9.7 yards per target. While his first-read share is down from his rookie season (29.3%), his efficiency nearly mirrors last year’s mark of 9.6 yards per target. Ideally, his volume of designed and easy layup targets increases, as his ability to create after the catch was a key part of last season’s breakout. His YAC per reception has dropped significantly, from 6.5 last year to just 3.9 this season.
Brian Thomas Jr. recorded a top speed of 22.15 MPH on this TD play.
The fastest ball carrier of the 2024 NFL season, according to @NextGenStats. pic.twitter.com/4ShU6WhUEc
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 6, 2024
But Seattle is hurting in the secondary, with both top corners, Devon Witherspoon (knee) and Riq Woolen (concussion), ruled out for Week 6. It presents a massive get-right opportunity for the 23-year-old.
Thomas has been one of the most frustrating and confounding players to own in fantasy this season. But the talent is too big to give up on. Thomas bounces back hugely with a seven-catch, 150-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 6. He's yet to crack 150 yards so far in his career, so this would be big for him moving forward.
Drake London Has 10+ Catch, 100+ Yard Performance
London looked incredible before Atlanta's bye in Week 4 against Washington, catching eight of 10 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown. Michael Penix Jr. has lasered in on London as his top target since Day 1 as a starter. Many predicted the 24-year-old to lead the NFL in targets this season, and while he's not quite on that pace through four games, his 9.25 targets per game is still the seventh-highest mark in the league.
London has recorded 10 or more receptions in a game three times in his career, with one coming with Penix in Week 18 last season. Penix peppered him with 18 targets as London had a career day with 10 catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns. Notably, that game came without Darnell Mooney, who will also be out in Week 6. In seven games together with Penix, London is on a pretty absurd 17-game pace. And he draws a Buffalo defense that just allowed Stefon Diggs to catch 10 balls for 146 yards.
Buffalo has played man coverage at the sixth-highest rate this season, per MatchQuarters. When teams go to man, Penix often looks for his main man in London. Last season, London dominated man coverage with a 41% TPRR and a 3.21 YPRR. He also owned 40.9% of the team's air yards. It feels like one of those games where Penix latches onto his No. 1 WR early and often.
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