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Kyle McCarthy's five fantasy football bold predictions for Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season. Expert predictions for Sam Darnold, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Stefon Diggs, and more.
Welcome to the Week 5 bold predictions column, where I will attempt to predict breakout games for five players in this week's games.
Using advanced data and matchup trends, I'll provide picks for each skill position: 1 QB, 1RB, 2 WR, and 1 TE.
With that in mind, let's get into my Week 5 bold predictions on Sam Darnold, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Stefon Diggs, Chris Olave, and Trey McBride.
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Sam Darnold Throws for 275+ Yards and 2+ TDs
Darnold and Baker Mayfield face off in one of the games of the week in Week 5. Darnold has been playing the best ball of his career, and now faces his former head coach in Todd Bowles.
Bowles will notoriously throw a variety of funky blitzes at opposing offenses, but that's an area where Darnold has played well over the first four games. He leads the league with an 11.3 yards per attempt against the blitz, and is top 10 by EPA/DB (0.15).
Sam Darnold is an elite QB pic.twitter.com/9q2aRM2CxB
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) September 26, 2025
Vita Vea leads an elite Bucs' run defense again, creating a pass funnel type of defense. The run game will likely be inefficient for Seattle in this one, and we could see offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak trust his signal caller to move the ball on a down-to-down basis.
Darnold has started 77 career games, and he has posted at least 275 yards and two touchdowns in 14 of those games. It'd be a statement win for Seattle and for Darnold to have a performance like this.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt Rushes For 100+ Yards
Croskey-Merritt's snap share has mildly risen since Austin Ekeler was lost for the season in Week 2, tying for the team lead in the past two weeks (37.5%). But he's touched the ball the most in that time among Washington RBs (18) and has been one of the most efficient players on a per-touch basis in the league.
He draws a Chargers defense that can be run on. They've given up the fourth-highest rate of explosive runs at 16.2%, and are just around league average in terms of rushing success rate.
This is all 7 of Jacory Croskey-Merritt's carries yesterday.
So dynamic. Special vision. Powerful. He is the truth. I don't remember being this impressed with a Commanders running back in years.
I see only 1 play where he didn't get MORE than was schemed up. pic.twitter.com/hdHOoVMtKW
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) September 29, 2025
Croskey-Merritt easily leads all qualified running backs with a 58.6% rushing success rate, with the next closest player being Javonte Williams at 52.4%. With Jayden Daniels (knee) returning to the field, the offense should be more dynamic overall and could potentially lead to a breakout performance from the rookie seventh-rounder.
In Week 1, he totaled 82 yards on 10 rushes and hasn't received more than eight carries in a game since. We're projecting he gets more work in this one and rips off a couple of explosive chunk gains for his first career 100-yard game.
Stefon Diggs Gets 100+ Receiving Yards
Diggs played the most he has all season in Week 4 against Carolina and had his best game as a Patriot. He hauled in six of seven targets for 101 yards and didn't even play the fourth quarter.
A classic revenge game spot on Sunday Night Football in Buffalo for Diggs as well. He played them last season after being dealt to Houston and had one of the best games of his shortened 2024 season, catching six of eight targets for 82 yards.
Stefon Diggs just kept finding holes in zone coverage in Week 4. Not just on shrot routes either. Huge for a young QB pic.twitter.com/siEFH3Xkrs
— Matthew Harmon (@RPFilmClips) October 3, 2025
On a season-high 73% route share, Diggs posted a monster 44% TPRR in Week 4. The thesis for him becoming a target hog and the go-to target for a rising star at QB in Drake Maye is playing out now. The Bills play zone at one of the league's highest rates, so Maye could be looking for Diggs, frequently finding the soft spots.
After clearing the century mark for receiving yards for the first time as a Patriot, he'll look to stack 100-yard performances for the first time since October 2023. Sunday Night Football should be a beauty.
Chris Olave Gets 100+ Receiving Yards
Olave ranks third in football in total targets earned at 43 on the season. But he has the 37th most receiving yards among wide receivers. Now he draws a Giants defense that is the second most fantasy points to the WR position, positioning Olave for a blowup spot.
The Giants have played man coverage at a top-three rate in the league through four games. Olave has earned the most targets on the team (15) when seeing man coverage.
Spencer Rattler finds Chris Olave for a Saints TD
NOvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXnxV pic.twitter.com/N28zj2rJid
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2025
In addition, he ranks in the top 20 in total air yards for the year, hopefully foreshadowing a couple of explosive connections with QB Spencer Rattler. Olave missed a lot of last season with injury, and his last 100-yard game came on October 27, 2024.
The Giants' defensive line dominated the game last week against the Chargers, but they were without multiple starting offensive linemen. The New Orleans offensive line is a solid unit and should do enough for Rattler to have some time.
Trey McBride Gets 100+ Receiving Yards
McBride has been fine this year, but hasn't dominated the same way he did last season yet. The target volume hasn't dipped at all as he has totaled 24 catches on 35 targets for 234 yards through four games.
Since becoming a full-time tight end roughly halfway through the 2023 season, McBride has five 100-yard receiving games. He racks up a ton of yards after the catch on underneath passes because that's essentially all that QB Kyler Murray can throw.
Murray force-feeds Marvin Harrison Jr. at times, but he ultimately knows what his bread and butter is with McBride. His last 100-yard game came in Week 17 last season, when he hauled in 12 of 16 targets for 123 yards.
Kyler linking up with McBride for the 3rd down conversion 🎯
AZvsSF on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/dSnQHnnP1E
— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2025
The matchup against Tennessee this week could be problematic in the way that the Titans may not be competitive enough for McBride to reach this mark. But I don't think Arizona deserves that kind of respect just yet, as they have been very up and down. It's time for the McBride explosion that calms some people down about the elite TE picks.
