The Time Is Now: Third-Year NBA Breakouts (2023-24)

October 20, 2023

These four third-year players have all shown flashes of greatness, but haven't been able to become an All-Star or superstar just yet. Aidin Ebrahimi looks at four third-year players who can have a big season in 2023-24.

"Breaking out" has different definitions for different players. For some, it's taking that All-Star leap, for others it's as simple as cracking the starting lineup and playing over 25 minutes a night.

With the 2023-24 NBA season almost upon us, the following third-year players have all shown flashes of greatness, but haven't been able to become an All-Star or superstar just yet. They all certainly have the potential, and their squads will certainly hope that everything goes right for them this season.

In this article, we'll look at four players who look set to finally take the leap to stardom heading into the 2023-24 campaign. This list is in no particular order.

#4. Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors)

Last summer, Scottie Barnes' stock was at its all-time high. He was just coming off of an awesome rookie campaign which saw him lead the Raptors to the Playoffs and win the 2022 Rookie of the Year award. But now, there are serious doubts about his game and future with the Raptors. Barnes' scoring average dipped (0.01 less than 2021-22) and his efficiency went down as well.

His True Shooting percentage (TS%) went down from 55.2% as a rookie to 52.4% as a sophomore. It was the seventh-worst TS% in the league among players who took over 1000 shots. This is a far cry from his days of dominance as a rookie. He led all rookies in many major advanced stats such as PER, Win Shares, Win Shares per 48, Offensive Win Shares, Offensive Rating, BPM, Offensive BPM, and VORP.

Scottie Barnes will average 20-5-5 this upcoming season as long as he’s a top 2 option. Scottie Barnes era begins this year. pic.twitter.com/seVUwma62E

— R. (@rafftakes) September 29, 2023

However, there's a lot of hope for Barnes heading into this season. Barnes will be under a new head coach, as Darko Rajakovic is an offensive mastermind who loves working with young teams. His experience with superstars like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Devin Booker, and Ja Morant will be crucial for Barnes' development.

Fred VanVleet is also gone, and so is his absurdly high usage rate (23.2% last season), which could only mean more opportunities for Barnes. He has also put on some muscle and is now nine pounds heavier than he was last season, which could mean more efficient and easy shots around the rim. With many teams interested in his All-Star teammate Pascal Siakam, Barnes could easily become the number one option on this team.

There's also some chatter about Barnes playing point guard, and if you can remember, a certain Greek Freak spent a good chunk of his third season playing PG after bulking up in the offseason. Expecting Barnes to become Giannis 2.0 might be a bit too optimistic, but there are a lot of similarities between the two.

#3. Alperen Sengun (Houston Rockets)

In a way, Alperen Sengun has already taken the leap from bench player to starter, now it's time for the second step. We already saw flashes of what Sengun could do late in his rookie season, but we finally managed to get an extended look at Sengun as the starter last season and he looked sharp.

One of the main problems that plague young big men who enter the league is their foul rates, which limits their playing time. One of the best stats that shows a player's foul rate is fouls per game per 36 minutes. Sengun has lowered his fouls per game per 36 minutes from 5.2 last season to 4.3 this year, which shows that he is slowly learning how to limit his fouls which will surely equate to more playing time.

Highest Career AST % by a Center in NBA History:

35.5% — Nikola Jokic
21.8% — Domantas Sabonis
21.4% — Alvan Adams
20.2% — Alperen Şengün pic.twitter.com/nnkeWgbqFL

— StatMamba (@StatMamba) September 29, 2023

Sengun was lethal when the Rockets gave him big minutes. In the 33 games where he played in 30+ minutes, Sengun averaged 17.3 points, 4.8 assists, and 10.5 rebounds a night. He also shot 58.1% from the field and 40.7% from three. Also, I don't wanna put extra pressure on Sengun but just look at how similar his stats are to a young Nikola Jokic.

Jokic averaged 13.2/8.4/3.6 in his first two years, and Sengun averaged 12.3/7.3/3.2 in his first two seasons. Jokic does have a clear advantage, but the similarities are there. You also have to remember that Sengun made his NBA debut a year younger than Jokic did. There have also been rumours of Sengun becoming taller similar to how Trey Murphy III became taller last season.

Some sources have claimed that Sengun now stands at seven feet with shoes on, which is a huge boost for him defensively as he doesn't have the longest wingspan. All signs point to Sengun having a brilliant third season in the NBA.

#2. Corey Kispert (Washington Wizards)

The Wizards have lost their two top scorers from the previous season (Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis), meaning that the team has to step up and fill the massive holes left by these two departed stars. We all know that Jordan Poole can fill in one of these holes by himself (at least volume-wise), but who will fill the other hole?

Someone will have to step up and become the third option behind Kyle Kuzma and Poole. Assuming that Danilo Gallinari is no longer the same (two season-ending ACL tears in nine years will do that to you), we can figure that Corey Kispert could be next in line for a big surge in minutes and shots in this offense.

JJ Redick shouts out Corey Kispert as someone who will have a good careerpic.twitter.com/bS8cOsF2bP

— Hoop District (@Hoop_District) September 29, 2023

Kispert is currently projected to be the starting SF and is the only guy in the starting lineup who can shoot threes at a consistently high rate. He should get around seven or eight threes a game, and he'll be playing in a team with little to no expectations. This definitely sounds like a recipe for a breakout season.

In his last 15 games of the 2022-23 season, Kispert started 13 games and averaged 17.4 points per game while shooting 50.8% from the floor and 41.9% from deep on 7.8 threes a game. It wouldn't be too far-fetched to expect these numbers from him in 2023-24. We have to remember that Kispert was just two field goals and five made free throws short to a 50-40-90 season last year.

#1. Jonathan Kuminga (Golden State Warriors)

Jordan Poole is gone. James Wiseman is gone. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are getting old. Chris Paul is very old. It is time for Jonathan Kuminga to show the world what he's truly made of. Kuminga has been nothing but consistent and efficient in his two years with the Dubs despite Steve Kerr's repeated lack of faith in him.

The timeline and contention aren't an excuse anymore after we saw how the Lakers managed to grow and develop their young stars while also contending and managing to dominate the Warriors in the playoffs. It's pretty simple, if you give Kuminga some minutes, he will produce. Kuminga has averaged 16.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game while shooting 58.9% from the field and 43.7% from three in the 40 games where he played over 25+ minutes.

JONATHAN KUMINGA is 21 🥳

Happy bday 🐐 pic.twitter.com/7ZueAtEEkI

— KumingaMuse (@KumingaMuse) October 6, 2023

Yes, you heard that right. 25 minutes. That's how much time Kuminga needs to leave his mark on the game. Also, Draymond Green will miss the early portion of this season after landing on Kuminga's foot in practice. Do you know what that is reminiscent of? When David Lee strained his hamstring in the Dubs' final preseason game on Oct. 24, 2014.

He missed the first three games before playing just six minutes in his debut and being ruled out until late December when he was a shell of himself. Draymond snatched Lee's starting role and never looked back. Now, the tables have turned. Sure, the Warriors will probably start the year with CP3/Curry/Klay/Wiggins/Looney, but that unit is so old that it would get eaten alive defensively.

Kuminga is an amazing defender for his age, and if the Warriors fall into a slump they could look to their young star to enter the starting lineup. He has been waiting for an opportunity like this for so long, similar to Draymond before Lee's injury. So when he finally gets that chance, the league better watch out.

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