RADIO
Robert's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves for Week 4 (0926/2023). He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.
With three weeks in the books, fantasy managers have a much better idea of who teams are, what roles certain players have, and which players can be trusted. The sample size still isn’t very large, but it’s enough we can start feeling confident in the information that’s been gathered over the last three weeks of football.
It’s important to be able to assess a player’s value without regard to their preseason expectation or the round in which they were drafted. Whatever your expectations of a player or the round they were drafted in are irrelevant. Try to weed those things out and only focus on who the player is today and what he can offer moving forward.
Below you'll find the biggest names that managers can safely cut in traditional 10 and 12-teams. You will also find players that you should hold if possible. These players' performances aren't quite lining up with their utilization, but their role is enough to remain optimistic. Those on the hot seat should be given one more chance to change their value but can be cut if there are better options on the wire. Also included are players you should be trading away even if it means taking a lesser return than you'd like. Finally, there are our sell-high players who should be sold before their value dips. If you have any questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.
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Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 4?
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears — 95% Rostered
Daniel Jones, New York Giants — 72% Rostered
We’re going to touch on both of these quarterbacks here because I’ve gotten a lot of questions about dropping each player. My answer to you is to NOT cut them. I’m not starting them right now, but I’d prefer to hold on to both signal-callers right now.
Last year, through Weeks 1-5, Fields was the QB25 in PPG. From Weeks 6-18, he was the QB3. I’m not saying that’s going to happen again this season, but I am saying it’s possible. In the first five games of last season, Fields had just 8.4 rush attempts per game. From Week 6 onward, he averaged 11.8 rush attempts per game. Through three weeks this season, he’s averaging just 8.0 rush attempts per game.
He’s clearly not a pocket passer and there are significant limitations to his game, specifically as it relates to identifying coverages, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a good fantasy quarterback. He was just last year with all those same deficiencies. Hopefully, the struggles they’ve experienced on offense will encourage the coaching staff to go back to what worked last season.
As for Jones, let’s cut this guy some slack, okay? He played in a torrential downpour against arguably the best defense in the NFL. During that game, Dallas returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown and Darren Waller, Jones’ No. 1 target was significantly limited. Then in Week 3, Jones and the Giants’ offense got destroyed on the road against the 49ers without their star running back, Saquon Barkley.
This shouldn’t be a surprise, but I promise you, about 95% of the quarterbacks in the NFL would have struggled against the Cowboys’ defense in those conditions and they also would’ve struggled on the road against the 49ers’ defense without their best player.
Through three weeks, Jones is currently on pace for 136 rush attempts and over 600 yards. That is fantastic. It makes him a legit dual-threat quarterback, which is the kind of signal-callers fantasy managers should be targeting. While I wouldn’t start Jones yet, I’ll refrain from passing judgment until he’s not facing one of the two best defenses in the world.
Running Backs to Cut in Week 4?
Dalvin Cook, New York Jets — 86% Rostered
Until the Jets get a new quarterback, every single player except Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson can be cut. These two guys are the only ones with the exceptional talent required to overcome the quarterback deficiencies. It should be noted that Wilson was included in this article last week as a Sell High candidate and that remains to be true, although the goal with Wilson was to leverage his two touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season.
Discouraging Week 3 snap rates
44% - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
38% - Derrick Henry
37% - Brian Robinson
33% - Kendre Miller
26% - Dalvin Cook
25% - Marvin Mims, Quentin Johnston
14% - Damien Harris
10% - Tank Bigsby— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 25, 2023
Anyways, back to Cook. Cut him. Through three weeks (we still have four teams who have not played as of this writing), the Jets rank 31st in points and yards. This is actually even worse since they have an extra game on four clubs. They’re just 24th in rushing attempts, 23rd in rushing yards, and 24th in rushing touchdowns. However, 109 of the team’s 388 rushing yards came on the first two carries from Breece Hall. 28% of the rushing yards came on just 3% of the attempts, which is just another red flag. Even if Hall were to get hurt and Cook became the lead back, would you even want to start him? To answer that, let’s talk about the next player…
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers — 84% Rostered
Star running back, Aaron Jones missed Weeks 2 and 3. Wheels up, right? This is why those who drafted him, drafted him! Sure, even with Jones he’d see 10-12 touches a game while handling the goal line work, but if Jones went down, he’s a top-15 RB. Well, Dillon scored 10.1 half-PPR points. Total. Across the last two games, without Aaron Jones in the league.
Massive struggle for AJ Dillon this season with Aaron Jones (hammy) out.
Dillon down to -1.26 rush yards over expectation on year. Only better than Cam Akers, Dalvin Cook, Rachaad White, Jamaal Williams.
Dillon also just 1 target on Jordan Love's 69 attempts last two weeks.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 25, 2023
He’s averaging 2.7 yards per carry on 37 attempts and his play in Week 3 seemed to have gotten him benched. For the duration of the 2022 season and the first two weeks of the season, Dillon has handled the vast majority of goal-line plays for the Packers. In Week 3, they had five such goal-line plays. Patrick Taylor handled all five. That is a major problem. If fantasy managers can’t even fire up Dillon with semi-confidence with Jones out, what’s the point of rostering him at all? Which brings us to our next cut candidate…
Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers — 73% Rostered
What was that last question we just asked about Dillon - what is the point of rostering him if fantasy managers can’t even fire him up with semi-confidence with Jones out? Well, hello Joshua Kelley. Star running back, Austin Ekeler also missed Weeks 2 and 3 for the Chargers, which put Kelley into the driver’s seat after running the ball 16 times for 91 yards and a score in Week 1.
Fantasy managers flocked to get Kelley onto their rosters and into their starting lineups. In Week 2, Kelley “rewarded” those fantasy managers with just 3.9 half-PPR points. After such a horrific outing, fantasy managers were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. After all, the Chargers played the fierce run defense of the Tennessee Titans. They’ve been one of the worst matchups for fantasy running backs the past couple of seasons.
Week 3 rush yards over expected (per @nextgenstats):
De'Von Achane +104
James Cook +42
James Conner +32
Zack Moss +30
Kenneth Walker +30----
Javonte Williams -16
Melvin Gordon -16
Rhamondre Stevenson -16
Joshua Kelley -16— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) September 25, 2023
In Week 3, the Chargers played against the Vikings in what was a high-scoring affair, a week after D'Andre Swift ran all over the Minnesota defense. Surely Kelley would pay off in this matchup. Nope. Instead, he actually got worse, finishing with just 2.2 half-PPR points. After these two performances, are you going to have any confidence starting Kelley in Week 4 if Ekeler is out again?
Samaje Perine, Denver Broncos — 61% Rostered
Perine started off the year exactly as fantasy managers were expecting. He operated as the 1B to Javonte Williams’ 1A. He had eight carries for 41 yards and caught all four of his targets for 37 yards. The wheels have since fallen off. He’s received just four carries for 13 yards over Weeks 2 and 3.
While he received four and three targets in the past two weeks, respectively, if he doesn’t receive any work on the ground, Perine offers zero standalone value. He had just 3.9 and 3.4 half-PPR points and also saw his snap share decrease from 50% in Week 2 to 31% in Week 3. That could be somewhat deceiving based on the beatdown they took from Miami. Regardless, this offense simply isn’t good enough to support two running backs.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders — 59% Rostered
It’s over. He has 14 touches through three games. He’s fumbled on two of those 14 touches. When the season started, there was hope Gibson would be the backup ball-carrier and the primary pass-catching running back. A 65%-35% split in the backfield. Through three games, Brian Robinson Jr. has 50 touches to Gibson’s 14. This is a 78%-22% split. If that wasn’t enough, Gibson finally got his kind of game script this past weekend.
The Commanders got absolutely destroyed by the Bills this past weekend, losing 37-3. Gibson played more snaps than Robinson this weekend but lost another fumble, and failed to make an impact in the passing game. He finished with five targets, catching three of them for just seven yards. Everyone can let go of the whole, “Gibson is going to be Eric Bieniemy’s new Jerick McKinnon in Washington” bit because it isn’t happening.
Others that can be safely cut: Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints — 56% Rostered, Damien Harris, Buffalo Bills — 39% Rostered, Devin Singletary, Houston Texans — 15% Rostered
Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 4?
JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots — 56% Rostered
If Smith-Schuster was going to be good this season, we should've seen it in the first two weeks of the season. That's because the Patriots played in two contests where they needed to lean on their passing game. From Weeks 1-2, Mac Jones had the sixth-most passing yards and the most pass attempts in the NFL. Despite the elite volume and picture-perfect game script, Smith-Schuster musted just 13 targets (13.5% target share), nine receptions, and 61 yards. He scored 5.3 half-PPR points in both games.
This past weekend, when the Patriots played in a contest much closer to the game they'd like to run their offense, Smith-Schuster finished with just three targets, one reception, and five yards. The ceiling is basically nonexistent and the floor is zero. Right now, DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne are running more routes than him at the receiver position. There are also four players - the two aforementioned players along with Rhamondre Stevenson and Hunter Henry - who are outperforming him in the passing game.
Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans — 55% Rostered
Burks suffered an LCL sprain during the offseason that threatened his Week 1 availability. He was able to heal up and was active in Week 1. That's about the best thing we can say about Burks on the young season. He has just one game with more than five targets, has yet to register four receptions in any game, and has been held to under 20 yards in two out of three games. Even in the one game he was able to go over 20 yards, in Week 2 when he finished with 76 yards on three catches, 70 of those came on one reception.
Treylon Burks since returning from LCL sprain:
6-99-0 receiving on 13 targets
Long of 70 yardsMeaning he’s gone 5-29-0 on his 12 other targets
If he’s not hitting a deep shot, he’s unplayable right now.
Avoid until he shows any sign of life.
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 25, 2023
Through three weeks, Burks has just 13 targets on 83 Tennesse pass attempts. That is just a 15.6% target share. Burks is only part of the problem. The Titans' passing game has been terrible. They've eclipsed 200 yards passing in just one game. They also have just one passing touchdown through three games. They're only averaging 27.6 pass attempts per game, which makes it incredibly difficult for any team's No. 2 receiver to make a fantasy impact. The problem is Burks is doing very little with the volume he's getting and the Titans' have very little volume to go around. It's a bad situation all the way around.
Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens — 47% Rostered
Fantasy managers were hoping for a significant change to the way the Baltimore offense functioned after the hire of new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken and the additions of Zay Flowers and Beckhma. While there have been some promising signs, the change hasn't been significant enough to allow for a No. 3 receiver to become fantasy viable. It's well known that Mark Andrews will operate as Lamar Jackson's No. 1 target and through three weeks, it's clear Flowers is the preferred No. 2. There's simply not enough volume for either Bateman or Beckham to have any sort of consistent fantasy value from week to week.
The Ravens are averaging just 28.6 pass attempts per game and 203 passing yards per game. While most assume Bateman and Beckham are the team's No. 3 receiver, it's actually been Nelson Agholor. Agholor has more targets, receptions, receptions, and touchdowns than both Bateman and Agholor. We know Flowers and Andrews are going to continue operating as full-time players but moving forward, it's likely that Bateman, Beckham, and Agholor will operate in a timeshare with each other, absolutely destroying all of their fantasy values.
Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs — 43% Rostered
I've seen all the numbers on his target per route run rate all the way back to his rookie season with the New York Giants. Yes, it is elite. No, I don't care. I don't consider myself a member of the Toney bandwagon, but I never completely wrote him off either. I just never knew what to think of him. On the plus side, when he's gotten an opportunity, he's typically done pretty well with it. He'd make a splash play or two and it would make you wonder what could happen if he got a bigger role. However, on the flip side, we're now almost 2.5 years into his career and he's never gotten a bigger role, so at what point do we give up? Well, I'm giving it up. Right now.
In three games this season, Toney hasn't played 20 snaps in any game. He hasn't surpassed a 30% snap share in any game. This past weekend, he played just two snaps. In Week 2, he had 35 receiving yards. In Weeks 1 and 3, he had zero receiving yards on six targets. If Toney ends up breaking out, I'm totally okay with it being on someone else's team. At this time, there are better bets to be made.
Others that can be safely cut: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals — 38% Rostered, Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears — 34% Rostered
Tight Ends to Cut in Week 4?
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans — 47% Rostered
The only Tennessee Titan that needs to be rostered right now is Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins. That's it. He was a player a lot of fantasy managers were excited to draft this season after a stellar rookie season where he displayed elite efficiency. However, small samples always present concern because typically efficiency decreases as opportunity increases. Through three weeks, that certainly has been true for Okonkwo.
The passing volume in Tennessee is negatively affecting Okonkwo, just like it's affecting Burks. That's because through three weeks Hopkins has been a true alpha. The second-year tight end has yet to have five targets in any game this season. In Weeks 1 and 3, Burks wasn't even able to pass 10 receiving yards. The Tennessee offense looks broken through three weeks and operating as the team's No. 3 or 4 option in the passing game has left him completely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He has just 7.7 half-PPR points on the season in his three contests. He can be safely sent to the waiver wire.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans — 43% Rostered
Through three weeks, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has the fourth-most pass attempts and the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL. Team passing volume hasn't been a problem for Schultz. The team's passing efficiency hasn't been a problem either. The problem is Schultz, plain and simple. The Texans have attempted 121 passes and have 906 passing yards. That means they are averaging roughly 40 pass attempts and 302 yards per game. Schultz has just 14 targets on the season, good for just an 11.5% target share. He has just 47 receiving yards, which equates to a 5.2% share of the team's passing yardage. He has two games with fewer than 10 receiving yards. He has two games with just 1.4 half-PPR points.
Others that can be safely cut: Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers – 31% Rostered
On The Hot Seat
RB Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears — 83% Rostered
Herbert's addition to the hot seat isn't all his fault. The Bears' offensive line has been atrocious. Almost has been as Justin Fields. This team looks broken, from the 53rd man on the roster all the way up to the head coach. They're 27th in points scored and 29th in yards gained, but you wouldn't know it if you watched the Bears play offense because they've looked even worse than that. Watching this offense operate it's hard to be optimistic that it's going to get better anytime soon.
#Bears Week 3 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Roschon Johnson - 10
Khalil Herbert - 9— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 25, 2023
Herbert has yet to have 10 carries in a single game this season. He has yet to have more than 35 rushing yards in any game. He has not yet scored double-digit points in half-PPR scoring. Over the past two weeks, Herbert has scored just 8.8 half-PPR. It's hard to cut him with the state of the running back position and how few starting options there are. He's worth holding onto for right now because he's seeing about 12 touches per game, but unless this Bears' offense shows some signs of life soon, Herbert will soon find his name on the Cut List, for real.
WR Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys — 62% Rostered
I was awfully high on Cooks coming into the season. He has been incredibly consistent over his career and while last year wasn't good, he didn't hit the proverbial wall like say, Allen Robinson II did in his final year with Chicago. Some of his advanced metrics, such as target share, targets per route run, and yards per route run dipped, but they were all still good. Some of the decreased efficiency could be attributed to the fact that quarterback, Davis Mills was Zach Wilson levels of bad last season. However, being traded to the Cowboys with quarterback Dak Prescott and the high-passing volume of the Dallas offense could be enough to get Cooks back to the WR3 level.
Fantasy managers needed to give Cooks a pass after their Week 1 win over the Giants. In that contest, the Dallas defense scored two touchdowns and the weather included a torrential downpour. He missed Week 2 with a knee sprain but returned in Week 3. While he did have seven targets, he was only able to bring in two of them for just 17 yards.
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