Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

The 2019-20 Don't Draft List for Fantasy Basketball


Every year “Do Not Draft Lists” are published and people are often thrown by the title.

For this articles purposes there are a few things to remember: First, “Do not draft” means not that you absolutely should not own that player, but more along the lines of do not draft them at their current average draft position (ADP). Secondly, we will be doing this from the perspective of a standard nine category league.

Some of these players hold far more value in an eight category, points league or other type of NBA fantasy league.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NBA and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive Preseason Draft Kit, 10 In-Season Lineup/DFS tools, and daily Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Overvalued Guards

Kyle Lowry: After winning an NBA title last year, Lowry will likely be a popular target in the early rounds of your fantasy draft.  Proceed with extreme caution as the now 33-year-old point guard has several factors which could see him regress this season. Last season he did average a career high 8.7 assists, but that was about the only stat which went in the right direction.

Lowry’s 14.2 points per game was his lowest in six years and was due in large part to his poor 34.7 percent three-point rate. His 34 minutes were good last year, but consider he only played 65 games and that was on a team that was near the top of the Eastern Conference. He should get a usage boost without Kawhi Leonard on the team, but at 33 years old expect him to also see a fair bit of “load management” throughout the season.  With Fred Vanvleet ready to take his spot and in the last year of his contract, it would not be a shock to see Lowry take a big step back.

Lou Williams: Williams has been nothing short of spectacular the last two seasons for the Clippers. After going 12 seasons without scoring 20 points per game once, or having over 5.0 assists per game ever, Williams eclipsed both marks the last two years. However, the concern here is not only his age, but the presence of two huge superstars in Leonard and Paul George.

Both Leonard and George have usage rates in the 30 percent range, which should put quite the damper on Williams 33% usage rate from last season.  It is also a concern that after a career high 32.8 minutes per game in 2017-2018, the Clippers scaled Williams back to 26.6 last season.  Along with a decreased role, Williams has never been an all-around contributor as he has averaged 2.2 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in his career. In the middle rounds you can simply find guys with more upside.

Others: Victor Oladipo (injury issues), Andrew Wiggins, Derrick White, J.J. Redick

 

Overvalued Forwards

Blake Griffin: Griffin has always been one of the biggest boom or bust forwards in fantasy basketball. Few forwards offer his skill set which can range from being a double-double machine, to dishing out nearly six assists per game last year. However, that ability has always come with the asterisk that injuries are sure to limit his value.

Last year Griffin played in 75 games, the most since 2013-2014, but that came at a cost as he was essentially forced to miss the Pistons postseason series.  Because of that, coach Dwayne Casey has already stated they will work in rest games and potentially a minutes cap for Griffin.  Another negative to Griffin’s value in the early rounds is that he provides little to no defensive ability at just 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks per game over his career. There will certainly be nights he is a top 20 fantasy player, but over the course of the full season it could be tough for him to make value.

Bojan Bogdanovic: Somewhat quietly last year, Bogdanovic was a fantasy beast for the Pacers. He posted career highs in points (18.0), rebounds (4.1), three’s per game (2.0), three point percentage (42.5%) and minutes (31.8).  Those are all signs we look for in a modern forward and those numbers reflect his ADP this year which is in the seventh round area.

The only problem is that Bogdanovic is not in nearly the same situation as last year and is likely to take a big hit across the board. Last year he became a prime playmaker for the Pacers when Victor Oladipo went down and posted 20.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.1 three’s per game post All-Star break.  This year he has joined a Jazz team that features Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles who are likely be on the ball far more than Bogdanovic. It should also be noted that in five years, Bogdanovic has yet to have one season with even 10 blocks!  He is a solid bet for three’s and solid percentages, but nothing else is likely to justify his current draft slot.

Others: Paul George, Danilo Gallinari, Serge Ibaka, Kyle Kuzma (injury)

 

Overvalued Centers

Marc Gasol: Everything that was said for Kyle Lowry rings true here for Gasol. He has been a fantasy star for the better part of 10 years, but he has now hit the point of his career where minutes limits, injuries and age are plummeting his fantasy value.

Last season in 26 regular season games with the Raptors, Gasol was limited to 24.9 minutes a game and just 9.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Also like Lowry, Gasol should benefit from a bit of a boost in usage rate without Leonard, up from 16.3% he had with the Raptors last year. Although a usage rate bump is good, consider Gasol is coming off a long summer with the Spanish National Team and seems far more likely to sit games, even early in the season. He has bumped his three-point rate, however it still trails far behind the likes of Brook Lopez who is available after Gasol.

DeAndre Jordan/Jarrett Allen: Allen seemed to be one of the prized pieces of Brooklyn’s future, but the team seemingly put that on hold to appease stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant with the signing the veteran Jordan.  With neither player capable of sliding to the power forward, they will both be likely to be capped around 24 minutes a game, assuming the Nets play a true center for the entire game.

Brooklyn was 11th in pace last year which helps both players, but the team did rank just 19th in offensive rating, which means there are not likely to be a ton of opportunities for either. The other issue with both players is they are essentially only viable in three categories (rebounds, blocks, fg%) and are a negative in the remaining six categories.  Unless one of them gets hurt, there is simply no value in either player with so many restrictions and blocked playing time.

Others: Al Horford, Steven Adams, JaVale McGee

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




More Recent Articles

 

Receiver Leaderboards Entering the Final Stretch - NFL Next Gen Stats

We've consumed our first "double-digit week" set of games. That means we've entered the final part of the season and, in fact, the fantasy football playoffs are closer than you may realize. There are just three more weeks to go until we hit Week 14 and celebrate our presence in the run for the chip,... Read More


NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 12) - Targets and Avoids

Sunday was one of the worst Sunday's Vegas has had all season and remaining entrants in survivor pools nearly had the same fate. However, the Vikings rallied from a 20-0 halftime deficit, the 49ers scored late, and the Cowboys win was much narrower than it should have been. The Saints, Bills, and Ravens took care... Read More


Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Jeff Driskel, Deebo Samuel, Kenyan Drake

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 12

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-8 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-3 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More


FAAB Bidding - Week 12 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More


Week 12 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

This could be the most exciting installment of waiver wire adds in a while. Not that any of these choices are necessarily league-winners but at least we have a bunch of new names to ponder. Bye weeks are nearly over but this one will be particularly tough with the high-scoring Chiefs, Vikings, Chargers, and Cardinals... Read More


Week 12 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Almost out of time to make that last push for the playoffs--no time like the present to squeak out a win because you picked the right defense. Below are RotoBaller's Week 12 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 12 of the NFL and... Read More


Week 12 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 12, and the fantasy football playoffs are just around the corner. Teams are jostling for playoff position both in the real world and the fantasy world. You gotta have the right kicker at the right time in the right matchup, and it matters now more than ever. The margin for error in these... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 12. Some of you are concentrating on building lineups that will commandeer a spot in the fantasy playoffs, while others are making slight adjustments to teams that have already secured their place in the postseason.... Read More


Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 12

Week 11 is behind us and we're getting closer and closer to the end of the fantasy regular season. For some of us, Week 12 represents the final chance to get into the postseason, while for others we have another week or two left. Here, to help you get ready for the playoffs, is a... Read More


Week 12 Tight End Waiver Wire Picks and Streamers

With fantasy football leagues only a couple weeks away from their playoffs, this is not the time for teams to be short a tight end. Not only do fantasy footballers have no Travis Kelce or Hunter Henry during this crucial week in their fantasy seasons, they do not get to take advantage of using a... Read More


Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers - Week 12

We saw some monster weeks at the quarterbacks position, with four quarterbacks topping 37 points, and ten scoring over 25 points. These weren't all big names putting up these points either, as low-owned quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and even Jeff Driskel had some big numbers in Week 11. That means we've got plenty... Read More


Waiver Wire Express - Week 12 Lightning Round

We're onto Week 12, which means the last of the bye weeks approaches. The Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs and Vikings hit the hammocks as we can finally start to look at players without worrying about future offweeks. To help you look towards those precious playoff weeks, here is the waiver wire lightning round heading into Week... Read More


Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups List

Back by popular demand in 2019... RotoBaller has brought back for the NFL season our Ultimate 2019 Fantasy Football Sleepers and Waiver Wire Pickups List.  Be sure to also try our other lineup tools below. Using your phone? Be sure to also download our free app which includes news, notifications, injury alerts & articles.   Rankings WizardWeekly... Read More


Week 11 Surprises? We Must Overreact - Jeff Driskel, Bo Scarbrough, Ryan Griffin

In Week 11, Josh Allen scorched the Dolphins Defense for three touchdowns through the air and one touchdown on the ground, finishing as the No. 1 quarterback on the week. As expected, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott finished as top-five quarterbacks, while Sam Darnold rebounded in a "get well" matchup against the Redskins. Kyle Allen... Read More