RADIO
Brad Leibfried looks at NBA players to avoid in 2019-20 fantasy basketball drafts. His "Do Not Draft List" looks at overvalued ADPs who could be draft busts.
Every year “Do Not Draft Lists” are published and people are often thrown by the title.
For this articles purposes there are a few things to remember: First, “Do not draft” means not that you absolutely should not own that player, but more along the lines of do not draft them at their current average draft position (ADP). Secondly, we will be doing this from the perspective of a standard nine category league.
Some of these players hold far more value in an eight category, points league or other type of NBA fantasy league.
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Overvalued Guards
Kyle Lowry: After winning an NBA title last year, Lowry will likely be a popular target in the early rounds of your fantasy draft. Proceed with extreme caution as the now 33-year-old point guard has several factors which could see him regress this season. Last season he did average a career high 8.7 assists, but that was about the only stat which went in the right direction.
Lowry’s 14.2 points per game was his lowest in six years and was due in large part to his poor 34.7 percent three-point rate. His 34 minutes were good last year, but consider he only played 65 games and that was on a team that was near the top of the Eastern Conference. He should get a usage boost without Kawhi Leonard on the team, but at 33 years old expect him to also see a fair bit of “load management” throughout the season. With Fred Vanvleet ready to take his spot and in the last year of his contract, it would not be a shock to see Lowry take a big step back.
Lou Williams: Williams has been nothing short of spectacular the last two seasons for the Clippers. After going 12 seasons without scoring 20 points per game once, or having over 5.0 assists per game ever, Williams eclipsed both marks the last two years. However, the concern here is not only his age, but the presence of two huge superstars in Leonard and Paul George.
Both Leonard and George have usage rates in the 30 percent range, which should put quite the damper on Williams 33% usage rate from last season. It is also a concern that after a career high 32.8 minutes per game in 2017-2018, the Clippers scaled Williams back to 26.6 last season. Along with a decreased role, Williams has never been an all-around contributor as he has averaged 2.2 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in his career. In the middle rounds you can simply find guys with more upside.
Others: Victor Oladipo (injury issues), Andrew Wiggins, Derrick White, J.J. Redick
Overvalued Forwards
Blake Griffin: Griffin has always been one of the biggest boom or bust forwards in fantasy basketball. Few forwards offer his skill set which can range from being a double-double machine, to dishing out nearly six assists per game last year. However, that ability has always come with the asterisk that injuries are sure to limit his value.
Last year Griffin played in 75 games, the most since 2013-2014, but that came at a cost as he was essentially forced to miss the Pistons postseason series. Because of that, coach Dwayne Casey has already stated they will work in rest games and potentially a minutes cap for Griffin. Another negative to Griffin’s value in the early rounds is that he provides little to no defensive ability at just 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks per game over his career. There will certainly be nights he is a top 20 fantasy player, but over the course of the full season it could be tough for him to make value.
Bojan Bogdanovic: Somewhat quietly last year, Bogdanovic was a fantasy beast for the Pacers. He posted career highs in points (18.0), rebounds (4.1), three’s per game (2.0), three point percentage (42.5%) and minutes (31.8). Those are all signs we look for in a modern forward and those numbers reflect his ADP this year which is in the seventh round area.
The only problem is that Bogdanovic is not in nearly the same situation as last year and is likely to take a big hit across the board. Last year he became a prime playmaker for the Pacers when Victor Oladipo went down and posted 20.9 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.1 three’s per game post All-Star break. This year he has joined a Jazz team that features Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles who are likely be on the ball far more than Bogdanovic. It should also be noted that in five years, Bogdanovic has yet to have one season with even 10 blocks! He is a solid bet for three’s and solid percentages, but nothing else is likely to justify his current draft slot.
Others: Paul George, Danilo Gallinari, Serge Ibaka, Kyle Kuzma (injury)
Overvalued Centers
Marc Gasol: Everything that was said for Kyle Lowry rings true here for Gasol. He has been a fantasy star for the better part of 10 years, but he has now hit the point of his career where minutes limits, injuries and age are plummeting his fantasy value.
Last season in 26 regular season games with the Raptors, Gasol was limited to 24.9 minutes a game and just 9.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. Also like Lowry, Gasol should benefit from a bit of a boost in usage rate without Leonard, up from 16.3% he had with the Raptors last year. Although a usage rate bump is good, consider Gasol is coming off a long summer with the Spanish National Team and seems far more likely to sit games, even early in the season. He has bumped his three-point rate, however it still trails far behind the likes of Brook Lopez who is available after Gasol.
DeAndre Jordan/Jarrett Allen: Allen seemed to be one of the prized pieces of Brooklyn’s future, but the team seemingly put that on hold to appease stars Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant with the signing the veteran Jordan. With neither player capable of sliding to the power forward, they will both be likely to be capped around 24 minutes a game, assuming the Nets play a true center for the entire game.
Brooklyn was 11th in pace last year which helps both players, but the team did rank just 19th in offensive rating, which means there are not likely to be a ton of opportunities for either. The other issue with both players is they are essentially only viable in three categories (rebounds, blocks, fg%) and are a negative in the remaining six categories. Unless one of them gets hurt, there is simply no value in either player with so many restrictions and blocked playing time.
Others: Al Horford, Steven Adams, JaVale McGee
