RADIO
Justin Carter breaks down game tape of Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Keelan Cole's recent performance to help fantasy football owners get a sense of his value heading into Week 3 of the 2018 NFL season.
Hey! Welcome back to "Tape Don't Lie," the weekly column where I look at the film and the analytics of a surprising performer from the previous week and try to come to conclusions about his value moving forward! Last week I looked at Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay, who in Week 2 became the first undrafted free agent to record 100 scrimmage yards in the first two weeks of an NFL season!
This week, let's look at Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Keelan Cole, who recorded seven catches for 116 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville's Week 2 victory over the New England Patriots.
Before I get into the analysis, here's a quick list of guys who were considered for this list with my ultimate reason for leaving them off: Austin Ekeler (because I looked at a running back last week), John Brown (because Cole showed me a little more in Week 2), and Matt Breida (because you should already know that Breida has a great forecast moving forward.) Alright, let's look at Keelan Cole!
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Keelan Cole: Tape Don't Lie
Background Information
An undrafted free agent out of Kentucky Wesleyan last season, Cole emerged onto the scene for Jacksonville as the season went along. In Jacksonville's 2017 season-opener against Houston, Cole was targeted twice and held without a catch while playing 30 percent of the team's snaps; by the time Jacksonville took on the Texans again in December, Cole was in the game for 73 percent of the snaps, catching seven of his nine targets for 186 yards and a touchdown.
Cole is effective in spite of some concerning numbers with his workout metrics. Per PlayerProfiler, Cole ranks in the 18th percentile among wide receivers in 40-yard dash speed and in the the 65th percentile at the position in agility. But Cole's 2017 production suggests a player capable of overcoming some of those limitations. Despite an inconsistent start to his rookie season, Cole ended the year 36th among wide receivers in production premium -- a metric that measures player performance across standard game situations -- and was 16th in yards per target. Cole posted efficient numbers and showed an ability to make big plays for the Jaguars.
Entering 2018, Cole was slated to start across from Marqise Lee, but a knee injury ended Lee's season, forcing Cole to be Jacksonville's de-facto number one guy. There were question marks about how Cole would hold up to the task and hold off the other receivers on this team. Does Week 2 give us answers to those questions?
Keelan Cole's Game Tape
Cole was on the field for 59 of Jacksonville's 71 offensive snaps on Sunday, a 83 percent snap share that was highest of any of the team's wide receivers. However, he didn't have a monopoly on the position, as Dede Westbrook and Donte Moncrief both played 72 percent of the snaps. With Leonard Fournette (hamstring) out, the Jaguars chose to go with plenty of three-receiver sets to take advantage of their strengths; surprisingly, with Fournette out the Jaguars main strength offensively becomes their versatile and talented wide receiver trio.
Cole was targeted eight times, just one behind the team leader in targets, Donte Moncrief. But Moncrief only turned those targets into four catches and 34 yards (and, well...a touchdown), with Cole consistently doing more with his opportunities.
Let's take a look at all seven of Cole's catches from Sunday's victory.
Everyone has already watched the highlight of Cole's one-handed grab by now so I don't want to spend too much time on it, but it's an incredibly impressive catch that is so impossible to replicate that I'm not going to talk about the specifics of it. What I do like here is Cole's instinct, as he's able to make a play on a ball that quarterback Blake Bortles under-throws. It seems pretty clear from watching this over and over that the ball should have hit Cole over the top, but he makes a great adjustment to turn around and snag it.
Cole's touchdown on his next catch is essentially the same play as his acrobatic catch earlier on the drive, because why not go back to the thing that worked. Cole's in single-coverage on the outside, but this time he manages to get a step on the defender, Bortles takes just a little longer to make the throw, and it drops right into Cole's hands for the touchdown. Despite Cole lacking a little in speed, he runs this route perfectly, getting outside quick enough that the defender can't stay perfectly in stride with him.
On his third catch, Cole starts the play inside. He gets a huge cushion at the 40 and Bortles hits him perfectly. From there, Cole turns up field and gets the ball into field goal range for Jacksonville. I like what I'm seeing here because we get to see Cole's versatility. It's also a pretty well designed play by head coach Doug Marrone; I see a few pretty open options here, including a spot where it seems like the same defender is responsible for both Cole and Dede Westbrook. Good to see the Jaguars drew this one up and that Cole executed.
A good crossing route here by Cole, who comes out of the slot again. That Cole can be successful on the outside and the inside speaks volumes for his ability to be this team's top receiver this season. Maybe Dede Westbrook is more talented. Maybe Donte Moncrief has shown more at this level. But as long as Cole makes positive plays from multiple spots on the field, he'll continue to lead the team's receivers in snaps.
Fifth catch is again from the slot, a quick five-yard out route and a good throw from Bortles to put the ball in a good spot for Cole to make a play. Through two games so far, Cole ranks 44th among wide receivers in average target separation; while he does a good job getting some space here, Cole will be called on to make contested plays fairly often when he finds himself unable to create strong cushions. Something to be aware of moving forward.
Some pre-snap motion from Cole, who ends up with a ton of space to make this catch in. New England has two defenders in the area, but neither are able to do anything until the ball is already in his hands.
Here's Cole's final catch. He runs a crossing route from the outside, basically gets a pick set by Dede Westbrook as the two cross paths, and is wide open in the middle of the field. Shows he isn't averse to contact by turning up field and barreling into three defenders.
Final Thoughts
Cole's seven catches came in a variety of ways. When it comes to predicting his future success, I really like that he's able to make plays from the slot and also from the outside. While Jacksonville ran a lot of plays with a RB/TE/WR/WR/WR set, their Week 1 game featured a lot more sets with two tight ends -- James O'Shaughnessy had an 18 percent snap share against New England after a 41 percent snap share against the Giants. Leonard Fournette's return should lead to more of a run-first mentality, leading to two-receiver sets that feature Cole on the outside. Jacksonville should be confident that he made a pair of big plays on the left sideline against the Patriots.
I'm a believer in Cole's versatility and talent; what worries me is how his usage could drop with Fournette back as the Jaguars inevitably run the ball a handful more times per game. The other issue is that Jacksonville seems to want Westbrook and Moncrief involved in the passing game; it's tough to trust Cole too much if Moncrief is getting more targets, or if Bortles is checking down to the running back, or if D.J. Chark seeing a major increase in offensive snaps turns out to be a trend.
But remember the title of this column: the tape doesn't lie here as it shows that Keelan Cole is a very good NFL receiver. At least for now, he's the Jacksonville pass-catcher that I'd be most interested in for fantasy purposes.
