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March Madness is officially here, so let's fill out some winning brackets! RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown of each tournament region, including some potential sleepers and busts. Today, we'll be taking a look at the South Region and my bracket picks.
I'm here to tell you some teams that I believe in to help you make the right tournament bracket decisions. Below I analyze the top four seeds, a potential bust, and a potential Final Four candidate. Hopefully, my college basketball predictions can help you win your March Madness pools.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the East, Midwest, and West regions.
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South Region Top Four Seeds
Top four seeds: No. 1 Alabama | N0. 2 Arizona | No. 3 Baylor | No. 4 Virginia
Alabama played the best basketball of the past week, winning the SEC Tournament in dominating fashion. They have NBA players, including the first player to be drafted out of college, Brandon Miller. He can take over a game at any point, but will the off-the-court questions involving his connection to the murder of a woman catch up with him and the team?
The Crimson Tide can get lackadaisical at times and that may hurt them down the road. The top half of their region is a cakewalk and they should cruise to the Elite Eight. I also worry about their lack of experience in big games. Their starting five consists of three freshmen, a sophomore, and a senior.
Arizona won the Pac-12 Tournament by beating UCLA at the wire. They have a well-rounded team and will be a tough out in any game. Not only do they score a lot, 82 points per game (seventh in the nation), but they also can win low-scoring games as evidenced Saturday night.
Baylor is coming into this tournament quietly after a quarterfinal loss in the Big 12 Tournament to Iowa State. Since Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua returned several weeks ago, they have looked a lot better but still have not reached their peak. Baylor has the second-ranked offense, per KenPom, but a much worse defense, ranking 104th.
It may have been better if they lost on Thursday in the conference tournament so they'll have a week of rest while the other Big 12 teams beat each other up. The Big 12 was the best conference this season and I'm going to give added value to those teams.
Virginia is like nearly every other Virginia team; great defense, so-so offense. They do have shooters, but once they get behind, it's hard for them to come back. Duke showed that Saturday night, they took an early lead and never looked back. The Cavaliers never even led.
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
N0.4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Furman
The committee loves putting two teams close in proximity in a first-round matchup. It's also the case where some of these Furman players were looked over by Virginia because they were not that highly recruited out of high school. The Paladins will have their chance to show them up. Furman plays at a fast pace, scoring 82 points per game, ranking 11th in the nation. But Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country. Usually, I favor defense against the offense, but if Furman can get ahead early, this is going down to the wire. Virginia opened as a 6.5-point favorite to show you how close this game will be.
Bust of the Region
Virginia, but I would not really call them a full bust, especially if they make it to the Sweet 16 and have to face Alabama. But I do not expect them to make it out of the first weekend. If they beat Furman, they would have to play San Diego State in the second round, and they play a similar style to Virginia.
Dark Horse Play
Creighton is seeded too low. They have a great one-two punch of Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner. This team nearly beat the eventual national champion Kansas in last year's second round without Kalkbrenner. The Blue Jays are ranked very high in advanced metrics; Ken Pomeroy has them as the 28th-best offense and 15th-ranked defense. They're 5.5-point favorites against NC State in the opener, then would probably face No. 3 Baylor in the second round, which would be a real battle. If they can get through the opening weekend, Arizona awaits, and then Alabama. It's a very difficult path but they should not be counted out.
Final Four Pick
Let's go contrarian and go with Arizona. Nearly everyone will have Alabama coming out of this region, but the Wildcats have the bigs and guards to defend the Tide. I liked Baylor but they'll have to go through Creighton in the second round. Arizona will face Missouri or Utah State in the second round, though. Utah State can't score enough to hang with Zona and Missouri won't be able to defend well enough.
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