RADIO
If you enjoyed the birdie barrage on display at the Travelers last week, the PGA Tour has just the event for you in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Winning scores have crested 23-under in four of the five iterations here in Detroit, and soft conditions throughout the midwest this summer could provide a harbinger for one of the year's most score-able setups to date.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic has also been the site of memorable returns to glory, affirmations of a new style of play, and multiple winners that opened deeper than 200-1 on odds boards. With just one of the world's top 20 in attendance, three top young talents (two of which still playing at the amateur level), and a host of other big names hungry for a jumpstart to their 2024 season, drama is almost assured between a host of players looking to send their careers into outer orbit.
This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Detroit Golf Club Highlands and the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic!
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The Golf Course
Detroit Golf Club - Par 72; 7,370 yards
Past Champions
- 2023 - Rickie Fowler (-24) over C. Morikawa/A. Hadwin (playoff)
- 2022 - Tony Finau (-26) over T. Pendrith, P. Cantlay, and C. Young
- 2021 - Cameron Davis (-18) over T. Merritt/J. Niemann (playoff)
- 2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (-23) over Matthew Wolff
- 2019 - Nate Lashley (-25) over Doc Redman
Detroit GC by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):
- Average Fairway Width -- 35.7 yards; ninth widest on the PGA Tour
- Average Driving Distance -- 297.0 yards; fourth highest on Tour
- Driving Accuracy -- 65.8%; sixth highest on Tour
- Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.30; eighth lowest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (+0.046); third easiest on Tour
With a near sub-70 scoring average and a winning score that sits routinely in the mid-20s, it's clear that Detroit GC isn't built quite to the same standard of difficulty as the last Donald Ross course we saw on Tour two short weeks ago -- and perhaps no aspect of the game is this course's straightforward nature better exemplified than off of the tee. Detroit GC features the ninth-widest fairways and the eighth-lowest missed fairway penalty on the PGA Tour; making it the third easiest course to gain strokes with the driver.
This combination of wide landing areas and very little in the way of hazard for misses has made Detroit a proverbial paradise for some of the games preeminent bombers, and in past RMC iterations, we've seen the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, Taylor Pendrith, and Wyndham Clark utilize their length to record top finishes here on the back of elite driving performances.
Admittedly, last year's rendition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic did throw a slight wrench in the bombers-only approach taken by many bettors historically in the Motor City: as a playoff between Rickie Fowler, Adam Hadwin, and Collin Morikawa showed there are many more ways to attack this golf course than a swing speed in the 120s. However, when you take a look at the top-five finishers last season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (Ludvig Aberg, Callum Tarren, Trevor Cone, Davis Thompson, Garrick Higgo; all top 15 for the week in Distance), the narrative quickly comes back into focus: if you want to project the players most likely to separate themselves with their opening salvo, driving distance is far and away the greatest indicator.
Detroit GC by the Numbers (Approach):
- Green in Regulation Rate -- 72.8%; fourth highest on the PGA Tour
- Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (+0.028); fourth easiest on Tour
- Key Proximity Ranges:
- 200+ yards (accounts for 22.8% of historical approach shots)
- 125-150 yards (17.9%)
- 100-125 yards (14.2%)
- 75-100 yards (11.2%)
While driving tends to steal the show on weeks like these with no discernible penalty against the game's biggest hitters, the past history at Detroit GC has proven that approach play remains the king of the two ball-striking metrics even at one of the more bomber-conducive tracks on Tour. Top five finishers at the Rocket Mortgage have gained nearly 2.5 times the amount of strokes with their iron play as opposed to off of the tee, and four of the five champions in Detroit have finished the week inside the top nine in SG: Approach.
From a proximity standpoint, Detroit GC sits as one of the most wedge-heavy layouts on the PGA Tour. Only two of the 10 par four's here measure over 460 yards, and with the sight-lines off of the tee giving players very few impediments to pulling driver, even some of the longer holes within that set can easily turn into scoring opportunities. In fact, when looking back at past approach distributions here in Detroit, we've seen shots under 150 yards make up upwards of 49% of the week's total approaches.
Besides wedge play, players will be facing their fair share of long-irons around this Par 72 routing: as four very reachable Par 5s and two Par 3's measuring 207 and 213 yards respectively will test their ability to hold Donald Ross's classically small, front-sloping greens. I'll be weighing proximity/strokes gained splits from both <150 and >200 yards, along with more general approach metrics like SG: Approach and Birdie Chances Created.
Detroit GC by the Numbers (Around the Greens):
- Scrambling Percentage -- 62.1%; 4.6% above Tour Average
- Sand Save Difficulty -- (+0.018); 12th easiest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (+0.027); Ninth easiest on Tour
- Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (-0.012); 10th toughest on Tour
- SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (+0.010); 15th easiest on Tour
Similar to long-iron play, short-game acumen at Detroit Golf Club only projects to play a significant role for players trying to get the ball up-and-down for birdie on one of the four par fives. Historically, the GIR % here at the Rocket Mortgage Classic sits at over 72% (and routinely sits over 80% for the fields most prodigious ball-strikers), so as I predict we'll say often over the course of this run of summer bentgrass birdie parties: those that will have to rely on their short game to routinely save pars are likely only looking to save their place in the pay order -- not in victory lane.
If you are looking to deep-dive specific short game metrics, I would look first and foremost at the toughest of the three around-the-green propositions at Detroit GC. The rough here can get as long as four inches in some spots, and while we don't typically associate this venue with a stiff missed fairway penalty, it has ranked as one of the 10 toughest venues to chip from out of its greenside rough. Recent venues with similar agronomy and rough length like TPC River Highlands, Valhalla, and Muirfield Village (TPC Deer Run and TPC Twin Cities fit this description as well), are perhaps the best angle we have at projecting the players best suited for navigating the largest greenside test of the week. In my own modeling, however, I'll have a much lower weight on short game than average -- utilizing Par 5 scoring as a stand-in and auxiliary around-the-green metric.
Detroit GC by the Numbers (Putting):
- Average Green Size: 5,150 sq. feet
- Agronomy -- Bentgrass/Poa Annua
- 3-Putt Percentage: 2.8% (0.2% below Tour Average)
- Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.004); 10th toughest on Tour
In direct contrast to around the green play, putting will continue to be a major component for success as winning scores and green in regulation rates climb into the stratosphere. Winners of the RMC have gained an average of 5.85 strokes to the field with their flat sticks (none have gained less than 3.1), and top-five finishers have gained a whopping 43% of their total shots on the greens.
As is fairly typical of Donald Ross designs, the greens themselves are far and away the biggest defense of Detroit Golf Club. Through five seasons, they rank in the top 12 on Tour in Difficulty from both 5-15 feet and >15 feet, and sixth in putting difficulty inside of 5 feet. Detroit GC also features a blend of bentgrass and poa annua on its greens that is quite common throughout the courses of the Midwest/Northeast, but considering the PGA Tour's apparent hesitance to host events outside of California, Texas, and Florida, this particular agronomy is a rarity at the professional level. TPC River Highlands is far and away the closest agronomic comp we see year-to-year, but recent Major Championship venues like Brookline and Bethpage Black can also provide additional reference points. I'll be looking at both recent putting (weighing bentgrass splits slightly over Bermuda/western poa annua), as well as past splits around the comps I alluded to earlier
Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):
- Putting upside -- particularly on similarly poa/bentgrass green complexes (TPC River Highlands, Detroit GC, Brookline, Bethpage Black, etc.)
- Wedge Proximity (Specifically <150 yards)
- Driving Distance
- Par 5 Scoring
- Birdie Chances Created, Birdie or Better %, Strokes Gained: Easy Scoring Conditions
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
The Sunday Shortlist
Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.
Min Woo Lee
Min Woo Lee chips in for birdie (again!)
That's 3️⃣ on the day! 😮💨#PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/qq7PRziZms
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 17, 2024
I've long been a believer that Min Woo's stateside breakthrough was most likely to come at one of the more benign layouts on the PGA Tour, and with five consecutive top 30 finishes on the recent form sheet (three of which coming at Major Championships), it's clear that the Aussie is rounding into form at the perfect time for a venue he should be brilliantly suited for.
Lee's combination of elite distance and a putter that can get white-hot profiles very similarly to the one employed by Bryson DeChambeau out of 2020's COVID break, where the now two-time Major Champion recorded his first win since his stark transformation. Notably, the two wins last fall that catapulted Min Woo into one of the clearest breakout commodities heading into the new year came at 30 and 20-under respectably: showing that the young Aussie has no problem taking it deep on a somewhat defenseless layout.
Min Woo's elite long-term short-game splits also make him especially tough on Par 5's: recording a scoring average of 4.57 on the DP World Tour last season, and ranking second in this field over his last 50 rounds on the PGA Tour. If his currently trending iron play (gained strokes in three of his last five starts; top 30 in Birdie Chances Created in 2024), can prove sustainable, Min Woo looks to be on the precipice of a long-awaited trip to victory lane.
Michael Thorbjornsen
Michael Thorbjornsen shoots 72 in his first round as a pro. His stats:
Driving Distance: 332.9 (1st)
Longest Drive: 361 (1st)
SG: OTT: +0.68 (20th)
GIR: 14/18 (13th)
Driving Accuracy: 9/14 (26th)
SG: Putting: -3.1 (69th)— Sean Martin (@PGATOURSMartin) June 20, 2024
Now that our macro-stand on Bryson in the 2024 Majors has paid off, I'm ready to take another hard-and-fast stance on one of the game's most enticing up-and-comers. Although he makes just his second professional start this week, Michael Thorbjornsen will be a name golf fans around the world are already well acquainted with.
Two years ago, the Wellesley, Massachusetts native recorded a top-five finish at the Travelers Championship (briefly sharing the lead in that tournament on Sunday afternoon with eventual champion Xander Schauffele). He's already recorded two top-20 finishes overseas with sponsor's invites at the 2023 and 2024 Dubai Desert Classic, and shot three finishing rounds of 63-66-68 to finish in a tie for 17th at last year's John Deere Classic to finish (ranking eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green that week in the process).
Thorbjornsen has every tool you'd look for in a modern day prospect profile for the PGA Tour: tall, athletically-built, with a swing you could already put up against some of the game's top ball-strikers. He's perhaps best known for being on of the better all-around drivers of the ball in the amateur ranks: a talent he put on full display when paired with fellow wunderkind Ludvig Aberg over the first two days of last week's Travelers. Thorbjornsen not only drove it more accurately than one of the game's best Total Drivers, he also kept up with Ludvig's elite length when River Highland's layout allowed them to open up.
Detroit GC's far less punitive routing will allow Thor to wield his biggest weapon at a far greater frequency this week, and when paired with a putter that has already paced the field 0n similarly blended green complexes (+9.6 SG: Putting at the 2022 Travelers), plus a short game that ranked ninth in last week's elevated field (+2.8 SG: ARG), I have no doubts that we could see this kid find the first page of many leaderboards down the stretch of his debut season.
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