Sauceda's Slants: More POWA to your Outfield

Aaron Sauceda explains his POWA index to find outfielders who could be sleepers or breakout for 2020 fantasy baseball leagues by providing undervalued consistency and value.

We recently introduced our new hitter metric, POWA (which stands for Prediction of wOBA Attempt), to more appropriately align and weight new Statcast metrics to better predict future performance.

You can read the introductory piece for the full details and a 2019 POWA leaderboard, but the gist of it is:

• POWA is nearly 10% more predictive of future wOBA than expected wOBA (xwOBA)
• POWA is more than two times stickier season-to-season than wOBA
• The weightings were determined based on optimizing predictiveness to next season’s (“season n+1”) wOBA:
  • Plate Discipline — 47%
    • Strikeout Rate (K%) — 27%
    • Walk Rate (BB%) — 20%
  • Contact Quality — 53%
    • Average Exit Velocity — 15%
    • Barrels per Batted Ball Event — 14%
    • % of Batted Balls Hit 95+ MPH — 10%
    • Maximum Exit Velocity — 6%
    • % of Batted Balls Poorly Topped — 5%
    • Average Distance — 3%

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Explanation

POWA Index: Intro | Infielders | Outfielders

In the introductory piece, we saw names like Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge and Juan Soto fill the top 1% of the POWA leaderboard. We certainly didn’t need a new metric to tell us that those guys are elite hitters. But we also saw some fun surprises, like Dodgers’ prospect Edwin Rios in the 99^th percentile! (Even if only a tiny 56 PA sample.)

And that’s the fun of something like POWA — identifying less celebrated hitters who possess outstanding raw skills, whom the market isn’t pricing at a premium. Maybe, just maybe, they’re poised to deliver outsized Fantasy value.

To identify who that might be, let’s adapt an idea from FanGraphs’ Mike Podhorzer and build an entire hitting lineup comprised of only late gems. To do so, we’ll use the following rubric:

• ADP after pick 300 (equates to < ~$2 cost in auctions), based on the latest “Sprint — Main Event” NFBC ADP (7/10-7/20, n = 14 drafts)
• Top 25% by POWA in 2019
• Projected ATC OPS of at least .700 — research by Jeff Zimmerman found that hitters projected for an OPS below .650-.700 were at greater risk for losing playing time and/or being sent down to the minors (“sucking risk”)
• NFBC Rules: 14 hitters — 2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CI, MI, 5 OF, UT

Admittedly, this exercise is slightly more tailored to round out rosters in deeper formats — 50-round draft and holds, “only” leagues and deeper mixed leagues. For those in shallower formats, some of these hitters may make nice endgame selections but others may be best served as early “watch list” candidates. To combat this, in select cases where applicable, I’ve listed POWA-friendly hitters as “Just Missed — Too Expensive.” While their current sub-300 ADP precludes them from this list, they’re still going late (well after pick 200) and showing tasty, top-third POWA skills.

Having said that, before we feel that we’re digging too deep here, it’s worth reminding ourselves that you could have built a pretty reputable squad choosing only players that went after pick 300 last season (and probably every season)! And as our esteemed colleague, Ariel Cohen, pointed out on a recent “Beat The Shift” podcast, the shorter season will create conditions for more variable seasons — there’s less time for proven studs to differentiate themselves and so perhaps we see more unexpected “spike” seasons from later picks like some of those on this list.

Who that might be, though? Let’s build our POWA lineup to find out! Applying the criteria above leaves us with a pool of 35 hitters — here are my favorites, continuing from infielders and now onto outfielders and a utility player.

(STATISTICAL NOTE: All indexed stats referenced below are calculated from Baseball Savant data, where 100 equals league average and higher is better, except for strikeout rate and poorly topped percentage, where lower is better. Indexed figures are based on all players with at least 30 PA in 2019. Percentages indicate that metric’s POWA weighting — e.g., 27% weighting for strikeout rate. Unless otherwise indicated, projections are from ATC’s full-season late-March iteration, which rated as the best projection system from 2019. Much of the injury information was initially gathered from Derek Rhoads’ awesome injury dashboard tool. Park factors are from ESPN. Where possible, hitters are sorted by their POWA percentile.)

Jordan Luplow, Cleveland Indians

85^th POWA Percentile
571 ADP (in March “Draft Champions” drafts)

Luplow absolutely mashes lefties, sporting a .276/.385/.635 slash line and 162 wRC+ against them across 226 career PA. In the same sample, he’s been equally bad against righties with a .207/.276/.320 slash line and 57 wRC+. It’s fair to wonder if Cleveland’s selective usage of him last season, primarily deployed against lefties, has artificially boosted his POWA ranking.

Still, the skills are compelling. He pairs above-average plate discipline — including last season, when his walk rate was 53% better than league average, and throughout the minors — with an 87^th percentile barrel rate. He also possesses 77^th percentile sprint speed and could sneakily chip in 6-10 stolen bases given a full season’s work.

The success of this pick will largely come down to Luplow’s ability to hit righties and secure an everyday job. According to beat writer Zack Meisel of The Athletic, Cleveland “wants to know if [Luplow] can hit righties.” When you consider Luplow’s success last season — he was 37% better than league average with the bat and produced 2.2 fWAR, good for fifth on the team despite only 261 PA — and the other healthy OF options on the roster (Greg Allen, Delino DeShields, Jake Bauers and Bradley Zimmer), it’s hard to envision a scenario where Luplow isn’t given a chance to hit right-handed pitching.

The dearth of quality alternatives may be his best shot to everyday at-bats, but the potential return of Tyler Naquin — the only alternate option currently on the roster who’s delivered at least a 100 wRC+ in the majors — from a torn ACL represents his biggest obstacle.

As Meisel said, “If he can [hit righties], then you have an everyday outfielder that should be above average at the plate — but you don’t know until it happens.” At this price, with these skills and the lack of alternatives, it might just be worth finding out.

Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets

83^rd POWA Percentile
322 ADP

Nimmo strikes out too much and doesn’t hit the ball particularly hard, but dammit does he walk! Since Nimmo’s full-season debut in 2017, he ranks 6^th in walk rate among hitters with at least 1,000 PA, behind only — maybe you know these guys? — Trout, Judge, Votto, Soto and Harper. By wRC+, he’s been well above league average in each of those three seasons (118, 148, 114), and he’s already had a breakout of sorts in 2018, when he generated 4.5 fWAR in 535 PA. His per-600 PA pace included 19 homers, 10 stolen bases, 86 runs and a .404 OBP that season, making him a quality power-speed table-setter atop a lineup, both real and in Fantasy.

The first question with Nimmo is, can he stay healthy? He missed significant time in 2017 and 2019 with a variety of seemingly unrelated injuries — a hamstring strain and collapsed lung in 2017, and a neck injury that kept him out for over three months in 2019. He already missed time this year in spring training (version one) for an irregular heartbeat.

The second question is playing time — will he get a full complement of plate appearances? Will he be squeezed into a platoon? Despite hitting from the left side, he hasn’t shown much of a platoon split, with a 119 wRC+ in 259 career PA against lefties and a 131 wRC+ in 825 PA against righties. The Mets outfield could get crowded, with Michael Conforto and J.D. Davis each seemingly having a spot locked down, and Dominic Smith, Jake Marisnick and Eduardo Nunez also on the roster and capable of playing the outfield. That’s not even mentioning Yoenis Cespedes’ return.

We’ll cross that bridge when we get there. Nimmo is a former first-round pick, still just 27 years old and already has a 4.5-win season on his resume. If he’s healthy and playing well, then playing time shouldn’t be much of an issue. For what it’s worth, Mets’ beat writer from The Athletic, Tim Britton, agrees, writing “as long as he’s healthy, Nimmo’s going to be an everyday outfielder.” He also believes the Mets' best lineups both include Nimmo — batting fifth against righties and seventh against lefties. He hit second, with McNeil leading off, in many lineup iterations this spring.

It’ll be interesting to see what first-year manager Luis Rojas does. By most accounts, the real question will be if Nimmo can stay healthy. If he does, he should be a profit machine for Fantasy managers. He finished 2017 as the 47^th best outfielder in 5x5 — he’s currently being drafted as the 89^th outfielder. Giddy up.

Kole Calhoun, Arizona Diamondbacks

82^nd POWA Percentile
344 ADP

Calhoun’s rank among outfielders from the last three seasons: 43^rd, 80^th, 52^nd

He’s currently being drafted as the 80^th outfielder, or the lowest we’ve seen him finish these last three seasons.

Despite oddly projecting him for only 139 games played — he’s averaged 152 games played since 2015 — ATC still has him beating that lowly mark, projecting him to finish as the 72nd best OF this season.

Having produced at least 2.0 fWAR in five of his last six seasons, Arizona gave him a 2-year $16M deal this offseason, with a club option for 2022. Without a staggering platoon split — he’s a career 98 wRC+ hitter against lefties, 108 wRC+ against righties — and many options to push him for playing time, he should enjoy a healthy leash as an everyday regular.

Sure, his at-bats are likely to come lower in the batting order than we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in Anaheim, and he’ll face headwinds of a slight downgrade in terms of park, particularly for left-handed power, and lineup (although it shouldn’t be by much). Of course, there’s always the risk of “pressing” after signing with a new team.

But the skills are there. He strikes out a little too much, although he mitigates that with an above-average walk rate and a barrel rate in the top 20% among hitters. He’s also adept at avoiding poor contact. You’re not going to get the gratifying “ohs” and “ahs” at the draft table when you click the button on Calhoun, but once you’re into the 300’s, it’s rare to find this degree of playing time, skills and track record. Boring as it may be, bank the profit and don’t look back.

Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds

81^st POWA Percentile
328 ADP

If Winker had a clearer path to an everyday role, he’d likely be going at least 150 picks earlier and wouldn’t be a candidate for this list. But after Cincinnati signed Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama — with top prospect Nick Senzel still prominently in the mix and Aristedes Aquino, Phillip Ervin and Josh VanMeter looming — the Reds outfield became crowded in a hurry.

Let’s be perfectly clear here, though: Winker is a damn good hitter! In 855 career MLB plate appearances, he’s slashed .285/.379/.466 with a 122 wRC+. His carrying tool is his pristine plate discipline. He’s elite — Votto-ian even! — with his unique combination of a low strikeout rate and high walk rate.

In fact, among hitters with at least 300 PA last season, there were only seven with his combination of strikeout rate (at least 30% better than league average), walk rate (at least 20% better) and hard hit rate (at least 15% better than league average in batted balls hit at least 95 MPH):

Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Anthony Rendon, Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Nick Markakis (!) … and Jesse Winker

The big question, of course, comes down to playing time. Castellanos just signed a four-year, $64M deal. Senzel was drafted by the Reds second overall in 2016 and was a consensus top 10 prospect up until his debut last season. When healthy, they’re both going to play. That leaves Winker to battle Akiyama, who signed a 3-year $21M deal this offseason, for playing time. While manager David Bell has indicated that he won’t know exactly what the lineup will look like until opening day, there are reports that he likes Akiyama at the top of the lineup when he plays. They’re both high-OBP, left-handed batters, so it isn’t a clean platoon situation.

Winker isn’t going to force the issue with his defense — I’m not sure it matters as this might be the worst outfield defense in the league regardless — and he’s shown a stark platoon split, with just a 52 wRC+ against lefties in 147 career PA. But it wasn’t that long ago he appeared on the cusp of a power breakout and part of the Reds core and, still just 26 and not a free agent until 2024, you’d think they’d want to give him reps against lefties to see if he can be an everyday guy.

Let’s also not forget that he’s now one more year removed from right shoulder surgery, something he said that had been bothering him for several years. His exit velocities, launch angle and plate discipline were all down in 2019 from 2018. There were signs that maybe he was pressing last season, swinging more both inside and outside the zone. Maybe he was still recovering from the offseason shoulder surgery. His wRC+ did jump from 100 in the first half to 149 in the second half (only 103 PA) before a back injury effectively ended his season.

For what it’s worth, the market is betting against Winker and instead believes Castellanos (92 ADP), Senzel (211) and Akiyama (265) will be the Reds regular outfield. Based on the reports that we have, I can understand why. But I think there’s a lot less clarity in this situation — particularly between Akiyama and Winker — than their current 130-pick gap suggests. At those prices, I’ll take the much cheaper player, particularly when it comes with Winker’s profile and the additional year removed from major surgery. Things happen and if they break right, this is a skillset and situation — a top 5 hitter’s park and much improved lineup — that you’ll want exposure to.

Derek Fisher, Toronto Blue Jays

75^th POWA Percentile
592 ADP

Fisher is probably the longest shot on this list given he’s the only one without any sort of track record of success at the major league level. In 419 career PA, he’s been 25% below league average with the bat and failed to generate a sliver of fWAR, to the tune of a .191/.279/.369 slash line.

Despite those struggles, his per-600 PA pace during that time also includes 23 HR and 14 SB. There are some tasty skills in Fisher’s profile waiting to be unlocked. However, his middling hit tool — he earned a 40/45 present/future “hit” grade from FanGraphs — has been his biggest impediment to everyday playing time, manifesting in a career strikeout rate (36.5%) reserved only for Gallo-ian power and minor leaguers. As a left-handed batter, he was shifted on nearly 58% of his plate appearances last season, suffering a 63-point drop in wOBA when shifted versus when not shifted. There’s no question that he’s shown holes in his game.

But at least he does some other things well! His career walk rate (10.3%) is a good place to start, and last year (12.6% in 167 PA) it was 53% above league average. When he makes contact, it’s often good contact. Both his average and maximum exit velocities were a hair above average and his barrel rate (per batted ball event) was in the 89^th percentile. He’s got elite speed, earning a “70” grade from FanGraphs — his sprint speed (91^st percentile) and home-to-first time (94^th percentile) were both in the top 10% of the league.

Now 26 and out of minor-league options, he has nothing left to prove in the minors — in 1,053 career PA in Triple-A, he’s slashed .292/.378/.525, averaging 28 homers and 23 stolen bases per 600 PA and never finishing a season with a wRC+ below 113. After being traded from the Astros as part of the Aaron Sanchez deal, Fisher might finally have his best shot to carve out regular playing time, something he never had — and was unlikely to ever get — with the Astros. He’s likely fourth in the outfield pecking order after Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez, but there are everyday DH at-bats available and Fisher could steal regular time in the outfield, allowing a questionable defender like Hernandez to regularly DH.

Given his lack of track record and secure playing time, Fisher’s success certainly feels like a longshot. But that’s more than priced into his near-600 ADP, and with his skillset and power-speed combo — ATC projects him for 21 homers and 14 stolen bases per 600 PA — he’s a worthy dart throw in uber-deep formats, and someone to otherwise watch closely early in the season.

Just Missed — Too Expensive: Andrew McCutchen (93^rd, 197), Mark Canha (89^th, 269), Joc Pederson (87^th, 218), Shin-Soo Choo (86^th, 227), Sam Hilliard (84^th, 255), Austin Hays (81^st, 282), Ian Happ (79^th, 269), Alex Verdugo (78^th, 208), Ryan Braun (75^th, 175)

Honorable Mentions: Nick Markakis (91^st, 488 in March “Draft Champions” drafts), Hunter Pence (82^nd, 448), Jason Heyward (80^th, 436), Jay Bruce (77^th, 424), Alex Dickerson (76^th, 427)

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

85^th POWA Percentile
451 ADP

Usually the conversation around Belt starts around health and ballpark. For his career, he’s 21% better than average with the bat, so there’s not a ton of questions about the talent. But he’s struggled to stay on the field, averaging just 127 games per season since 2012, and the home park is so punitive — particularly for power — that Fantasy managers have avoided it like the plague.

That’s what makes the timing of this odd: he’s coming off a season where he actually played the entire thing! (He played 156 games and went to the plate 616 times.) The problem was, he just wasn’t particularly good, finishing with just 17 home runs, a .234/.339/.403 slash line and 99 wRC+, a career-low and the first time in his career that he finished below 100. Almost 32 years old now, that completes a troubling four-year trend where his wRC+ has decreased each season, from 136 in 2016, to 119, 108 and then 99 in 2019.

But many of the skills still appear intact! He reduced his strikeout rate to a career-low 20.6% while pushing his walk rate up to 60% better than league average. He’s never been an exit velocity killer, but he’s at least near league average in that regard, in addition to being in the top third of the league by barrel rate and the top 1% in terms of avoiding bad contact (batted balls defined by Statcast as “poorly topped”).

Revisiting the ballpark situation, this offseason they’ve moved the fences in five to eight feet, depending on which part of the park you’re referring to, as well as reducing the height of fences in left and center field by one foot. It’s unlikely to have a major impact, but perhaps the park will go from playing extreme to simply pitcher-friendly.

I don’t think anyone is excited to roster Belt — I don’t blame you — but he’s almost surely guaranteed everyday playing time when healthy, his park situation is likely to improve (at least marginally) and his skills are still largely intact. We’re talking about the 400’s here. Not to mention, there’s some value in a Belt selection at this point — despite the down season, he finished as the 36^th first baseman last season and ATC projects him to finish 38^th at the position this season. He’s currently being drafted as the 41^st first baseman by ADP. Maybe there’s something there for your corner infielder slot? I have a friend who’s a Giants fan and used to perpetually name his teams, “Year of the Belt.” Maybe this is the year? Okay, probably not.

Closing Thoughts

It’s fun to see how a good hitting profile comes together. Sometimes it’s a carrying tool, whether that be a plus strikeout rate or an ungodly walk rate. Maybe it’s an ability to annihilate baseballs. In some cases, it’s a little bit of everything with no superstar in the profile. Whatever it is, this isn’t a “throwaway” portion of the draft. There’s a lot of value and profit to be mined — if you can pair a sound foundation with 1-2 “hits” in this range, you might be clearing out more trophy space on your shelves following the season. To do so, it helps to select for skills that make good hitters — and that’s why we target POWA hitters.

Make sure to poke around the full leaderboard on RotoBaller to see what other late gems you can find — let me know on Twitter (@RotoPope) if there are some standout options that I missed!

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