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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 13 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Indiana.
Week 13 College Football Playoff Projections
For weeks, it looked like the top four teams in the College Football Playoff were a foregone conclusion, but Alabama’s loss this week has changed things. Suddenly, the Tide are on the bubble to even make the playoffs, while Georgia is fourth in the official rankings, putting the Bulldogs in line to earn the final bye, though Georgia certainly isn’t a lock for that.
This ranking is a projection of how things will look when the playoff begins, not merely a reflection of where we’re at for the moment. With that in mind, here’s how I see the CFP field shaking out as we head into Week 13.
12. Tulane
CFP Committee Ranking: 24th
Tulane is ranked as the highest Group of Five team, which is notable because it’s ahead of James Madison. Why is that notable? Because it likely guarantees that if Tulane and North Texas win out, the two will face off in an American Conference title game where the winner makes the playoffs.
That’s because there’s zero reason to think a Tulane squad that wins out would suddenly be jumped by another Group of Five team, while UNT beating Tulane in the conference title game would give the Mean Green a win over a team ranked in the CFP rankings, which is a better win than anything James Madison can muster over the rest of the season.
11. Alabama
CFP Committee Ranking: 10th
The SEC title game is going to be interesting. Texas A&M is a win away from clinching a spot, but the other spot is up for grabs. Since Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia didn’t all play each other, a tie among those teams would go down to strength of schedule, and there are three games that will decide that.
In this scenario, we’re assuming those games shake out in a way that gets Alabama to the conference title game, where the team loses to Texas A&M. I spent much of the season convinced Alabama would win that theoretical matchup, but what I saw last week from both teams has changed my tune.
Is a 10-3 Alabama getting into the playoffs? Probably, but they’d drop below a one-loss ACC champion and there’s still a slight chance the committee puts a 10-2 Miami team in over them, but I don’t think that happens.
10. Georgia Tech
CFP Committee Ranking: 16th
Miami is the highest-ranked ACC team in the poll, but the Hurricanes have a huge problem: they’ve lost two conference games.
Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, and SMU all have one loss, which means Miami has an extremely rocky path to making the game. In addition to winning out, the Hurricanes need six other games to go their way to make it. Miami’s only realistic shot at this point is getting in as an at-large team, and that’s only happening if Alabama loses to Auburn on Nov. 29. I can’t see that happening.
As for who wins the ACC and earns a playoff spot, Georgia Tech is the best team among the four contenders and has the best quarterback of that group in Haynes King. The Yellow Jackets should win out and in this theoretical world we’re discussing here, would land a spot ahead of three-loss Alabama.
9. Notre Dame
CFP Committee Ranking: Ninth
Notre Dame is in with wins over Syracuse and Stanford, no questions asked. There’s no one left who can jump them as an at-large if the Irish finish 10-2.
The last team that realistically could jump them was Oklahoma, which did so this week. Notre Dame’s two losses to open the year seem to limit the team’s ceiling to the No. 9 spot, barring losses from the teams ahead of it.
8. Oklahoma
CFP Committee Ranking: Eighth
Welcome back, Oklahoma. Saturday’s upset win over Alabama appears to have made the Sooners’ playoff chances pretty simple: win out and they’re in.
That shouldn’t be too difficult. The team hosts No. 22 Missouri this weekend in what should be a competitive game, then Oklahoma ends the season with another home game against a reeling LSU program.
7. Oregon
CFP Committee Ranking: Seventh
Oregon’s only chance of moving up beyond maybe sixth would be to make the Big Ten title game. That seems unlikely, but it’s not impossible.
The Ducks would leap past Ohio State in a few scenarios. The most likely: Oregon defeats USC while Ohio State is upset by Michigan.
The problem for Oregon? Its games against ranked teams haven’t gone super well. There was the Indiana loss. There was a six-point win over a Penn State team that was ranked No. 3 when they met, but has fallen off a cliff since. There was also a two-point win over unranked Iowa, a much closer game than the Ducks should have played. The USC game is a potential nightmare for Oregon that could knock it out of the playoff entirely or could theoretically propel it to a bye.
6. Ole Miss
CFP Committee Ranking: Sixth
Ole Miss could make the SEC title game and thus have a shot at moving up into one of the top four spots, but they’re also the least likely SEC contender to make it there.
The Rebels would need to beat Mississippi State while also needing Texas A&M to lose to Texas and Alabama to lose to Auburn. Getting two of those three things to happen isn’t out of the question, but it’s really hard to see Auburn winning the Iron Bowl.
5. Georgia
CFP Committee Ranking: Fourth
Georgia is done with SEC play, which means it needs help to make the SEC title game. It does have a great chance to get a marquee win against Georgia Tech, but that’s a non-conference contest, so it doesn’t impact anything as far as conference seeding goes.
That means Georgia’s case for a bye likely comes down to two things. First, does Texas A&M win the SEC title game? A loss by the Aggies could open the door for Georgia, but I’m not sold that actually happens. I think the real decision is between a Big 12 champion Texas Tech and a Georgia team that finished third in the SEC. Maybe I’m naive to think the committee will value Texas Tech winning its conference championship?
4. Texas Tech
CFP Committee Ranking: Fifth
Am I naive, though? This Texas Tech team is really, really good. The weird loss to Arizona State aside, the Red Raiders are taking care of business. Blowout wins over Utah, Houston, and BYU are great resume boosts, and another big win in the Big 12 championship would give this team a great resume.
This is clearly the best team outside of the SEC and Big Ten this season. Here’s to hoping the committee recognizes this strong season by giving Texas Tech a bye.
3. Indiana
CFP Committee Ranking: Second
Indiana and Ohio State are on a collision course for the Big Ten title game. Yes, there are scenarios where Oregon gets in, but I think the most likely result here is a pair of undefeated teams meeting to decide the Big Ten.
The loser — and from this ranking, you can tell that I think Indiana loses it — should still be rewarded for its strong season with the No. 3 seed in the College Football Playoff. Not landing the No. 1 seed would be a bit disappointing for the Hoosiers, but this team has what it takes to win the national title, even if it loses to the Buckeyes first.
2. Texas A&M
CFP Committee Ranking: Third
Texas A&M’s miracle season almost went up in flames this past week. The Aggies trailed South Carolina 30-3 at the half and quarterback Marcel Reed was having a disaster of a game.
But A&M showed real championship mettle with its comeback victory, outscoring the Gamecocks 28-0 in the second half to stay undefeated on the season. After a comeback like that, I’m sold on this team beating whoever it faces in any game going forward. And with one of the Big Ten teams set to lose in the Big Ten title game, the Aggies will end up as the No. 2 seed.
1. Ohio State
CFP Committee Ranking: First
No surprise here. Ohio State doesn’t have the resume that Texas A&M has, but a win over Indiana in the Big Ten title game will guarantee the team lands the No. 1 seed.
Well…it would mostly guarantee it. There’s a scenario where Ohio State loses to Michigan in the regular season and still plays for the Big Ten title. If that’s the case, Ohio State would fall behind Texas A&M, but this has to be the year that the losing streak to Michigan ends, right?
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
- No. 11 Alabama at No. 6 Ole Miss
- No. 10 Georgia Tech at No. 7 Oregon
- No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
