RADIO
The cut has been made and Wyndham Clark has been a cut above the field so far, sitting four shots clear of 2nd after a pair of 65s see him at -14 for the event. Nick Taylor and Xander Schauffele sit in second and will be looking to chase down Clark who leads the field in strokes gained putting, but still remains in the top 10 in strokes gained approach.
Justin Thomas missed the cut and snaps a streak of 8 consecutive made cuts at the PLAYERS, while Jordan Spieth continues to play sporadic golf that saw him miss a cut this week too.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 3 Analysis
Round 2 DK Points Leaders
Round 2 Ownership Leaders
Weather
Expect. Birdies.
Round 3 Strategy
Pivoting to golfers going off early and have high upside.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Rory McIlroy tends to do his thing in round 3. He is the only person to gain an average of 2+ strokes on Saturday's with the next closest (Sungjae Im) a full 0.5 strokes off Rory. We never know what he is going to get up to, but with Scottie injured expect him to be a little more popular than we expect. He has been making birdies like crazy this week.
Other plays: Patrick Cantlay
$9,000+
Favorite play: Max Homa opened his round with a triple bogey and then shot level par for the rest of his round. His putter has been flirting with tons of upside lately and tomorrow it could unlock a super low round from Homa.
Other options: Viktor Hovland
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sam Burns really hasn't got out 2nd gear this week, which typically changes on Saturdays, as he has the fourth best R3 strokes gained average. He will likely get an early tee time as he made the cut on the number. He can have the round of the day at his price thanks to his top end spike putting.
Other options: Tommy Fleetwood
$7,000+
Favorite play: Sungjae Im seems to have found his game since the API and continues to be incredibly handy in R3. He is also a very good scrambler and feels comfortable around this course, capable of going very low like we saw in Hawaii.
Other options: Jake Knapp (I really like Knapp too), Tony Finau, Si Woo Kim, Doug Ghim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sepp Straka
$6,000+
Favorite play: Seamus Power is capable of getting on the odd birdie run on those short, positional, coastal courses. If he reverts back to his PGA potential, we could see him priced back in the $8k ranges soon, potentially getting back to the form that saw him win the Bermuda.
Other options: Nate Lashley, Martin Laird, Brice Garnett, Peter Malnati
Live Add
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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