RADIO
Shane Lowry decided that he wanted to give himself another opportunity to have a final round meltdown, leading the field at -6 at the close of round 1. He seems to really like Florida golf, at least through the first three rounds. Hideki Matsuyama sits in T2, using his amazing feel around the greens to chip in for eagle on a par 5. While he maintains a good feel with a wedge in his hand, in a post round interview he mentioned he was playing with a numb leg... utterly bizarre!
Somebody who does have full feeling of their lower extremities is Justin Lower, also sitting alongside Matsuyama in T2 after a scorching round of -5, by his standards as he is priced at $6,300 for round 2 showdown. It will be interesting to see if he can hang over the next three rounds.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 1 Analysis
Winning Lineup
Round 1 DK Points Leaders
Round 1 Ownership Leaders
Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Round 2 Strategy
We are just going to be playing golfers that our GPP rating column really likes this for R2. That rating uses a formula with projected points, salary and ownership to find options that provide the best leverage and value for us in R2.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite play: Xander Schauffele is our only play in the $10k range as we really like what we can get our hands on in the $9ks. Schauffele also lost strokes in R1 which, based off countless hours and months of watching these guys, he is likely to bounce back with a strong performance when he finds himself further down the leaderboard. In fact, we may add him live for a placement bet later in the article.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Patrick Cantlay had a bit of a dud of a round and will likely come in lower owned than most of the $10k options despite having the third highest projections for R2. He can make birdies in a hurry and really pops off in the approach rankings on a course that rewards longer irons and stellar driving. He also has averaged over two strokes in R2 over the last 12 months.
Other options: Ludvig Aberg
$8,000+
Favorite play: Matthieu Pavon has been cooking with his irons and his putter in 2024. Today, both of those let him down. At a course with tons of water and grainy Bermuda greens, we are willing to forgive the Frenchman who rates out really well for us at $8,100. His spike putting is what is doing most of the heavy lifting as well as his tendency to shoot up the leaderboard in R2.
Other options: Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Max Homa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im (since we only have three dudes priced above $9,000, we can load up our lineups with three or four of these guys depending on how many lineups you are playing. Some really excellent golfers priced very affordably).
$7,000+
Favorite play: Tom Hoge lead the field in strokes gained approach today. He lost more strokes putting the he gained with his irons ... that's all you really need to know about what we can expect from one of the tour's most elite iron players. He is $7,100.
Other options: Adam Scott, Jake Knapp, Eric Cole, Stephan Jaeger, Nicolai Hojgaard
$6,000+
Favorite play: We are going to blindly trust the model suggesting we play Brendon Todd, who can spike with the putter at any given moment. If he can keep his ball in the fairway enough to allow him to keep peppering greens, that putter could be an ultimate equalizer at $6,500.
Other options: Justin Rose, Andrew Putnam
Live Add
Xander Schauffele lost two strokes on approach today, which is not like him, especially on a course that rewards his elite long iron play. Those two strokes are what separate him from the golfers tied for T20. Bet365 pays ties in full and have Xander at -115 for a T20, while FD and DK have him +100. If you don't have Bet365, the +100 is also fine.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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