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Lance Fernandez predicts the contract extension values for the Jacksonville Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence and the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa. Read the 2024 NFL contracts outlook.
Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa are two quarterbacks eligible for contract extensions. They've had modest success in the NFL, leading their teams to the playoffs. Lawrence has an edge because he has a postseason victory under his belt.
Tagovailoa, on the other hand, has been making significant strides in his career. He recently set career highs in completions (388), passing yards (4,624), touchdowns (29), and completion percentage (69.3). With the trend of increasing contract values in the quarterback market, Lawrence and Tagovailoa could be looking at substantial paydays.
While there's no reason for the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Miami Dolphins to let them go, here's the potential monetary value of their succeeding deals.
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Predicting Trevor Lawrence's Contract Extension
In 2024, Lawrence will play the final season under his four-year, $36.7 million rookie scale contract. However, the Jaguars have exercised his fifth-year option, worth $25.6 million. Therefore, Jacksonville will have the former Clemson standout for one more season if no extension is in place.
However, as CBS Sports' Bryan DeArdo wrote on May 19, Lawrence and the Jaguars are already negotiating a contract that will average $50 million annually. On that basis, Lawrence's contract extension could be four years for $200 million or five years for $250 million.
The National consensus right now is that Trevor Lawrence is not a good QB and is going to be overpaid.
But did we forget about this?
Just say you don’t watch the Jaguars. ( Understandble ) pic.twitter.com/qcM4V7NCQG
— Nuggets STILL your current Champs! 🏆 ⛏️ (@Way2FengShui) May 21, 2024
As always, leverage is essential in negotiating NFL contracts. Five quarterbacks have an annual average value of at least $50 million. The lowest-paid among this group, the Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts, earns $51 million yearly.
Getting a $50 million annual value puts him among the highest-paid quarterbacks. However, he can't be above those five quarterbacks (Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow) because they have better credentials.
Predicting Tua Tagovailoa's Contract Extension
As Bleacher Report's Scott Polacek wrote on May 21, ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter said that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are working on a contract extension. Both sides hope to get it done before the season starts.
However, their prices are far apart, hindering the finalizing of a deal. The Dolphins might try to suppress the price, arguing the talented players around Tagovailoa (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane). Meanwhile, the quarterback's side is going with the market.
🎥 The ESPN NFL Live panel discusses Tua Tagovailoa’s contract situation
Dan Orlovsky: “Tua the player - just the QB on the field - you sit there and say: no brainer, pay him… the last 2 seasons, he’s top 5 in everything that matters when it comes to QB play” (@ESPNNFL) #GoFins pic.twitter.com/dR47aIXGx2
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) May 20, 2024
Despite the haggling, the Dolphins won't allow the 2024 season to be Tagovailoa's last in Miami. They'll commit to him long-term, especially after what he showed when healthy.
Spotrac estimates Tagovailoa's market value at $49.6 million, translating to a potential four-year, $198.5 million deal. It puts him right where Lawrence is, which is a fair prediction of what he will get. It would have been higher if he had some postseason success.
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